“The safety net is the 100-week average, which has stalled the downtrend.”, — write: www.coindesk.com
Bitcoin BTC$86,966.16 trades close to a crucial long-term price line that’s held for three weeks, putting bulls on edge. However, shares in the largest publicly listed BTC holder, Strategy (MSTR), have already slipped below this “safety net,” flashing bearish cues to the cryptocurrency.
This safety net is the 100-week simple moving average (SMA), the average price over roughly two years and a trusted metric for technical analysts across markets to identify major trend shifts and long-term support or breakdowns.
For bitcoin, the 100-week SMA has held steady for three weeks, halting the decline from record highs above $126,000. Think of it as a safety net catching a falling object mid-air. A bounce from the average could spark hopes of a trampoline-like bullish rebound.
But if prices break lower, frustrated holders may dump more while bears gain confidence, sparking deeper declines.
That’s precisely what happened to MicroStrategy shares in November, as seen in the chart below.
BTC and MSTR’s weekly charts in candlestick format. (TradingView/CoinDesk)
MSTR dropped to $220 in early November, penetrating the 100-week SMA line. Since then, it has extended the sell-off to $160. The stock is now down over 60% from the year-to-date high of $457.
This is critical for BTC bulls, as MSTR had also led bitcoin earlier when it broke below the 50-week SMA, another widely watched long-term average.
The key takeaway is that bulls must defend the 100-week SMA, or prices risk following MSTR’s path into deeper losses. If bulls manage to keep prices above the average, it would strengthen hopes that it acts as a trampoline for a bullish rebound.
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- GoPlus Intelligence’s Token Security API averaged 717 million monthly calls year-to-date in 2025, with a peak of nearly 1 billion calls in February 2025. Total blockchain-level requests, including transaction simulations, averaged an additional 350 million per month.
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BTC’s weak tone contrasted with moderate gains in major Asian equity indices, which drew strength mostly from expectations of fiscal stimulus.
- Crypto markets continued to decline, with overall capitalization falling below $3 trillion for the third time in a month.
- Large-cap assets, particularly those with ETF exposure, are experiencing selling pressure as institutional investors reassess risk.
- Bitcoin’s decline contrasts with gains in major Asian equity indices, which are buoyed by expectations of fiscal stimulus from Beijing.
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