“Despite its bearish reputation, every death cross in the current cycle has marked a major local bottom.”, — write: www.coindesk.com
The 50-day moving average for bitcoin at $110,669 is now on the verge of slipping below the 200-day moving average at $110,459, potentially triggering the death cross. This crossover is widely viewed in technical analysis as a bearish signal because it reflects weakening short-term momentum relative to the longer trend.
Bitcoin is currently down about 25% from its October all-time high around $126,000 and this correction has been ongoing for roughly 41 days. Despite the reputation of the death cross, this would be the fourth occurrence of the death cross since the cycle started back in 2023 and each previous instance has aligned with a major local bottom.
In September 2023, bitcoin bottomed near $25,000, in August 2024 during the yen carry trade unwind it found support around $49,000, and then in April 2025, during uncertainty around President Trump’s tariff policy, BTC bottomed below $75,000.
In the current setup, bitcoin has fallen to $94,000 and in all four previous instances the market put in its low just before the death cross formed, raising the question of whether the same pattern may be unfolding again.
Is this time different?This current drawdown is less severe than the April correction, when bitcoin dropped below $75,000 during the tariff-related turmoil.
However, the broader environment now includes the end of the United States government shutdown on Nov. 12. The closest comparison is the 2019 shutdown, when bitcoin fell more than 9% five days after the government reopened on Jan. 25 2019.
It took until Feb. 9 2019 for bitcoin to recover, approximately two weeks.
BTC Price Action during US government re-opening in 2019 (Tradingview)
This time around bitcoin has already dropped as much as 10% since the reopening. The question now is whether the same pattern will play out again.
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