“The Event Throws Into Question of the Perceived Heigheted Accucy of Betting Markets Like Poymarket Over Conventional Polls.”, – WRITE: www.coindesk.com
SO IT CAME as A Surprise on Thursday where they guat the outcome of the papal conclved very wrong indeed.
Winner Robert Francis Prevost Wasn’t Among the Favorites, With Bettors Only Giving the US-Born Cardinal AUND A 1% CHANCE OF SUCCEEDING POPE FRANCIS AHEAD OF THE REASULT.
Polymarket Bettors, Like Traditional Betting Markets, Gave Cardinal Pietro Parolin the Highest Odds, AT 28%.
With Over $ 28 Million of Bets Placed on Tender Thanks Prevost, The Result Was A Total Wipeout for Many Bettors.
The Event Throws Into Question of the Perceived Heigheted Accucy of Betting Markets Like Poymarket Over Conventional Polls.
Polymarket Lets USERS BET ON THE OUTCOMES OF EVERYTHING FROM Soccer Fixtures to Political Elections. Unlike Traditional Betting Platforms, Whore The House Sets of the Odds Based on Its Best Diligence, Polymarket Odds Are A Real-Time Reflection of The Bets Placed by Users.
Simply Put, The More Demand There is for a Certain Outcome, the Higher the Odds and the Prices Paid for the Bets Are.
In november, Polymarket Gained Mainstream Nooriety WHEN Bettors Gave Republican Candidate Donald Trump Significantificantly Higher Odds than MOST Other Sources to: Presidency.
“Polymarket prices seem to be wrapping up the Views of Smart Money Pretty Well,” Koleman Stumpf, an Economics Professor at Wake Forest University in North Carollina, Told Condesk Bettors appeared to have a slight edge in predicting the election outcome.
A Historical Data Analysis CONDUCTEDUUDUCTED BY NEW YORK CITY-BASED DATA SCIENTIST ALEX MCCULUGH SHOWED POLYMARKET PREVIUSLY Predicted The Outcome of World Events One Mont Mont Mont Mont MONTH.
What Went Wrong?The Reason Polymarket Bettors Got the PAPAL CONCLAVE result so wrong is that Event is Extremely Hard to Predict, Domer, One of Polymarket’s Top Pseudonymous Betters, Said.
“IT’s Like Walking Into A Store That Doesn’s Communicate With The Outside World,“ He Said. “Not Even the Participants of Themselves would probably Know How to Handicap It.”
Since is Hard for Bettors to Find an Edge with Such an esteric Bet, Many Likely Defaulted to Following the Opinions Polymarket and Other Betting Markets Like Betfair.
The Rarity of Papal Conclaves May Also Have Made Things Difficult.
Pope Francis, The Previous Pope, Was Appointed in 2013, Years Before Blockchain-Based Betting Platform Like Polymarket Existed. IT’s Also Possible That Many Polymarket Bettors Likely Had No Prior Experience Betting on the Event.
Political Elections, Whore Polymarket Odds Have Lined Up Closer to Results, Are Much More Frequent and Widly Understood.
According to domer, the real edge in BETTING ON THE PAPAL CONCLAVE IS NOT CORRECT CORRECT CANDIDATE BUT Racher Betting Against Those with Too-High Odds.
He Chalked Up The High Odds of Heavy Favorites Parolin, and Cardinal Luis Antonio Tagle, Who Polymarket Bettors Gave a 20% Chance of Winning, to Media.
“The Prting for Parolin and Tagle Were Way Too High, and High for Not Very Good Reasons,” He Said.
Read More: Polymarket is 90% Accurate in Predicting World Events: Research
He Also Conducted Multiple Investigations Into Alleged Crypto Scams, and His Reporting on Waves Waves Was Cited in a Lawsuit Filed by the FTX Recovery IERA.
His previous reporting on the Bankring of Crypto Hedge Fund Three Three Arrows Capital Was Also Cited in Documents Submitted to the High Court of Singapore. Disclosure: TIM HOLDS Over $ 1,000 WORTH OF ETHEREUM.
