“Be in time for winter. Where else is Russia advancing and where has Ukraine stopped it October 22, 22:16 Share: Ukrainian fighters near the front line in the Kharkiv region (Photo: Reuters) After the capture of Vugledar in early October, the pace of the Russian army’s advance in eastern Ukraine slowed down a bit, but then increased again . Does this mean that Russia is trying to achieve the goals of its “great offensive”, which has been going on for more than a year, before the cold season – the journalist analyzes”, — write on: ua.news
Be in time for winter. Where else is Russia advancing and where has Ukraine stopped it? Ukrainian fighters near the front line in the Kharkiv region (Photo: Reuters)
After the capture of Ugledar at the beginning of October, the pace of the Russian army’s advance in Eastern Ukraine slowed down a bit, but then increased again. Does this mean that Russia is trying to achieve its goals “the big offensive” which has been going on for more than a year, until the cold season — analyzes BBC News Ukraine journalist Oleg Chernysh. NV publishes this text under the rights of information cooperation.
It should be noted that the fall of Vugledar – a powerful Ukrainian “fortress” in southern Donbas – did not open the way for Russia to rapidly advance deep into the territory controlled by Kyiv.
The armed forces of Ukraine managed to hold the next frontier – near the village of Bogoyavlenka – and prevent the movement of Russian troops to their, obviously, main goal – Kurakhovo, the logistics center.
In the same way, the Ukrainian army is keeping the enemy at the approaches to Pokrovsk and Selidovoy. The Russians, in their turn, try not to storm these large industrial cities head-on, but to bypass them from the flanks.
In Toretsk, on the contrary, both armies were bogged down in urban battles. The Russian army is trying to move further north, but the dense construction and stubborn resistance of the Armed Forces of Ukraine are slowing down these attacks.
This advance is extremely slow and causes heavy losses to the attacking party.
- Russia captured Vugledar. Zelensky explained why this happened
- Why was Russia unable to stop the Kursk Offensive, even though it knew about it
- Is the end of the war near: how is the front line moving in Ukraine and where is the hottest place
In other directions – near Kurakhovo, Kupyansk and Chasovoy Yar – it looks like the Russian forces are trying to squeeze out the maximum result before the onset of the cold and rainy season.
The significant deterioration of the soil affects the movement of armored vehicles and makes it almost impossible for mechanized columns to advance rapidly.
A military expert, retired Australian general Mick Ryan, draws attention to this.
“The Russians have stepped up their mechanized operations in several areas to advance wherever possible before conditions prevent large-scale use of heavy armor,” he emphasizes.
“Yes, tracks really help to move over rough terrain under most conditions. But the mud in Ukraine is famous for its ability to “capture” armored vehicles,” the expert points out.
He also notes that Russia has somewhat changed its tactics and started to use small infantry groups more actively. They now operate in pairs, with one group trying to gain a foothold on a tactical bridgehead in a forward position, while the other moves to the rear for support.
This is an extremely resource-intensive tactic for the Kremlin. However, talks about the involvement of the North Korean army by the Russians in hostilities in Ukraine may partially solve this problem.
In addition, both sides continue hostilities in the Kursk region of the Russian Federation. Here, the Ukrainian army involves additional combat units, for example, the 47th separate mechanized brigade “Magura” in order to contain the second wave of a powerful Russian counteroffensive. According to the Ukrainian authorities, so far this is being done.
Movement to Kurakhovo
A significant slowdown in the direction of Pokrovsk led to the fact that the Russian army reoriented its main efforts further south — in the direction of Kurakhovo.
This is an important logistics point for the Armed Forces, located on the Donetsk — Zaporizhzhia highway. The fall of Kurakhovoy will lead to the collapse of the entire Ukrainian defense in the south of Donbas, and will also put Zaporizhzhia at risk.
However, this city, in addition to fortified defense lines directly on the outskirts of the settlement, has another important feature — a large water obstacle in the north, namely, the Kurakhiv Reservoir.
Now the Russian army is trying to reach the outskirts of the city in the east and press the Ukrainian defenders to the bank of the reservoir in the north.
ReutersThe main battles are currently taking place in the villages of Maksimilianivka (the capture of which was announced by the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation on October 17) and Zoryan.
Russia announced that it controls Zoryan on October 19.
The Ukrainian side has not yet confirmed this information. The DeepState Analytical Center emphasizes that as of October 20, fighting continues in the southern part of Maksimilianivka, but the Russians have raised reserves and intensified artillery fire. This is due to the fact that this settlement “like a bone in the throat”, which prevents opening the way to Kurakhov, analysts indicate.
The village of Zoryane is located further north, close to important strongholds of the Armed Forces near the settlements of Hirnyk and Kurakhivka. On the DeepState map, it is in the “grey zone”, which means that there are still battles for it.
If the information about the capture of Zoryanyi is confirmed, it will mean that the Ukrainian bridgehead on the eastern bank of the Vovcha River has been completely eliminated. He was kept in semi-encirclement for three months.
BBCUkrainian military analyst, group coordinator “Information resistance” Kostyantyn Mashovets notes that apparently the Russian Ministry of Defense has identified Kurakhov as the main target of its offensive.
“Most likely, the Russian command has finally understood that the Kurakhiv district of the defense of the Armed Forces of Ukraine is a kind of “key” to a sufficient extent – both to Pokrovsky and Uspenivskyi (the former Ugledarskyi) directions…”, the expert emphasizes.
In his opinion, the section of the front between the villages of Hirnyk and Novoselidivka near the town of Tsukuryne is the most threatening. The Russian army is concentrating its main efforts on this 6-7 km wide section.
But further progress here, the expert believes, will require significant additional forces and reserves from Russia.
In addition, Ukrainian troops on the northern bank of the Kurakhiv Reservoir retain the hypothetical possibility of counterattacks in the flank and rear of the tactical group of the Russian Army advancing on Kurakhiv, Mashovets believes.
Without solving this problem, it is too early to talk about the readiness of the Russian army to fight for Kurakhov.
Advancing near the Time Ravine
Despite the fact that the battle for Chasiv Yar — a key hill in the west of the Donetsk region — began almost 8 months ago, Russia could not achieve a breakthrough here.
The best airborne units were involved in the offensive operations, but they were powerless against the built Ukrainian defenses both in the city itself and on the approaches to it.
An important landmark near Chasovoy Yar was and remains the Siverskyi Donetsk-Donbas channel. Even despite the fact that it is not a wide obstacle and in some areas it even goes underground.
In fact, in the middle of summer, this channel became a direct front line, when the Armed Forces of Ukraine were forced to withdraw to its western bank from the eastern quarter, which was completely destroyed by Russian aircraft and artillery.
BBCAfter that, the Russian army began to make efforts to cross the water obstacle and create a stable bridgehead on the other bank.
As of October 21, it can be stated that she succeeded in this in several places at once.
At first, the Russians were able to create a small bridgehead in the northeast of Chasovoy Yar – near the village of Kalynivka. From that area, they began to carry out attacks deep into the residential areas of the city.
In October, the Russian army was able to cross the canal south of Chasovoy Yar. Here they break through in the direction of the village of Stupochki and have already deepened by 2-3 km.
In this way, the Russians are trying to bypass the military base of the Ukrainian Armed Forces in Chasovoy Yar from the north and south and get closer to their main goal – the logistics center of the western Donbass, the city of Kostyantynivka.
However, this advance is too risky for the Kremlin forces until the main problem is solved — the presence of Ukrainian positions further south on the eastern bank of the canal near the villages of Klishchiivka and Andriivka. Persistent attempts to eliminate this bridgehead were futile for the Russian army.
The battle for the bridgehead at Oskol
In mid-October, Russian troops advanced to the southeast of Kupyansk in the east of the Kharkiv region. Here they managed to cut the Kupyansk-Borova highway in the Kruglyakivka area and actually cut the Ukrainian bridgehead on the eastern bank of the Oskol River.
This can significantly complicate the supply of units of the Armed Forces defending in the area of Kupyansk and Borova.
On October 15, the head of the Kharkiv Regional Military Administration, Oleg Synegubov, announced the mandatory evacuation of all citizens living in the city of Kupyansk, as well as the communities of Kondrashivka, Kurylivka, and Borov — “due to the deterioration of the military situation.”
Apparently, the Ukrainian command understands the importance of preserving its bridgehead at Oskol.
On October 18, the Main Directorate of Intelligence of the Ministry of Defense released a video of the battle for the village of Kruglyakivka in this area. It states that it was special forces of the GUR with the support of the 77th separate airmobile brigade of the Armed Forces of Ukraine that cleared an “important area” from the Russians.
DeepState explains that the Russian Federation is trying to capture the Oskil crossing in the area of Senkove village from the north side of Kruglyakivka in this area. According to analysts, the Russian army has concentrated very significant forces here.
BBC“The concentration of forces and reserves that they brought there make it possible to carry out constant attacks on the settlement, because they understand the importance of this village,” the organization’s report says.
As of October 21, the DeepState map shows that the route to Kupyansk remains cut, but the Ukrainians are in control of the Oskil River crossing.
Both sides have concentrated the most combat-ready units here.
- Escape from the war or deliberate departure. How migration from Ukraine has changed and what will be its consequences
- How do Ukrainians feel about Zelenskyi and peace. New survey
- Either NATO or nuclear weapons: what Zelensky meant