“QCP Capital’s latest note says global markets are pivoting from rate sensitivity to liquidity dependence.”, — write: www.coindesk.com
QCP Capital says the market has moved beyond simple rate watching and into a full liquidity regime, where central-bank balance sheets and cross-border capital flows drive risk more than the Fed’s next 25 basis points.
“Central bank buying, de-dollarization flows, and institutional portfolio hedging have become the dominant forces propelling gold higher, extending its relevance well beyond the traditional inflation-hedge framework,” QCP Capital wrote, noting that during last weekend’s volatility, the Bitcoin–gold correlation has climbed above 0.85, highlighting synchronized flows between the two asset classes.
Prediction markets are coalescing around a steady but shallow Fed easing cycle that favors gold and digital assets over high-beta risk.
On Kalshi, traders now assign a 76% chance of exactly three rate cuts in 2025, with a total easing of 75 bps, matching JP Morgan’s baseline for a “mid-cycle, non-recessionary” path. Fed Governor Michelle Bowman’s remarks this week, calling for two additional cuts by year-end, reinforced that trajectory.
Bitcoin is trading inside that same liquidity framework.
Kalshi traders see a 51% probability it breaks $130,000 this year, which would mark a new all-time high, 33% for $140,000, and just 21% for $150,000, with even odds of touching $150,000 by mid-2026.
The market is positioning for a slow-burn rally, not a speculative surge, as easing expectations filter gradually into real yields and dollar liquidity. Glassnode data shows a dense cluster of call positions at the $130,000 strike, indicating that options flows could amplify short-term moves but also anchor resistance near that level.
The macro and on-chain signals point in the same direction: this is no adrenaline-driven bull market, but a slow, liquidity-fed advance that may keep pushing assets higher even without an aggressive Fed pivot.
That is, if the market can survive another Truth Social post.
Market MovementBTC: Bitcoin is trading above $110,500, down 2%, pressured by renewed US–China trade tensions and worries about global risk, while analysts caution that breaching the $110,000 support could open the door to a drop toward $96,500–$100,000
ETH: Ethereum is changing hands around $3,900, down about 4%, as investors scale back exposure amid macro uncertainty and crypto rout concerns, while some remain optimistic that ETH may “catch up” to gold over time
Golden: Gold is trading near $4,141.81/oz as safe-haven demand rises amid US–China flare‑ups and mounting expectations for US rate cuts.
Nikkei 225: Asia-Pacific markets rose Thursday, with Japan’s Nikkei 225 up 0.95%, following Wall Street gains driven by strong bank earnings.
Elsewhere in Crypto
- Eric Trump Confirms Plans to Tokenize Real Estate With World Liberty Financial (CoinDesk)
- ‘Ship has sailed’: Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse says US won’t return to hostile crypto climate under Gensler (The Block)
- Sony Wants Its Own Crypto Bank Too (Decrypt)
Combined spot and derivatives volumes fell 17.5% in September, continuing a four-year seasonal trend
- Trading activity falls 17.5% in September slowdown: Combined spot and derivatives volumes dropped to $8.12 trillion, marking the first decline after three months of growth. September has now seen reduced trading volume for the fourth consecutive year.
- Open interest reaches record high despite derivatives market share decline: Total open interest surged 3.2% to $204 billion and peaked at an all-time high of $230 billion during the month.
- Altcoins on CME outperform as Bitcoin and Ether futures decline: While CME’s total derivatives volume remained flat at $287 billion (-0.08%), SOL futures jumped 57.1% to $13.5 billion and XRP futures rose 7.19% to $7.84 billion. BTC and ETH futures fell 4.05% and 17.9% respectively.
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Despite a comparably muted October, bitcoin’s steady performance near $110,000 and signs of Fed easing have analysts calling for a breakout.
- Bitcoin continued under pressure even as gold and silver yet again surged to record highs.
- Still, the price holding in the $111,000 area can be considered a sign of resilience amid geopolitical and economic uncertainty.
- Analysts from Lekker Capital and 21Shares say bitcoin could soon rally.
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