About 48 hryvnias: prediction of the dollar exchange rate for 2026-2027 according to information from the IMF, the National Bank and the government

Dollar exchange rate Photo: Informant

During the next two years, the currency sphere of Ukraine will remain under control, and, according to the main scenario, the dollar will not exceed the mark of 48 hryvnias. Dilyara Mustafaeva, the head of the analytical department of “Financial Pulse” reported this on November 17, based on forecasts from the International Monetary Fund, the Cabinet of Ministers of Ukraine and the National Bank of Ukraine.

She emphasized: despite the dangers of war, the established macroeconomic indicators demonstrate the desire for gradual stabilization of the market.

In the draft State Budget for 2026, the Government predicted an average annual exchange rate of UAH 45.7/dollar. and 49.4 hryvnias/euro. The IMF predicts an exchange rate of UAH 45.4/dollar. in 2026 and 47.5 hryvnias/dollar. in 2027. Although the NBU does not publish an official forecast of the exchange rate, the regulator notes in the October inflation report: in 2026, the shortage of private sector currency will remain significant, but from 2027 it will begin to decrease.

“This will happen thanks to an increase in export revenues — primarily from the agricultural sector, metallurgy, IT services and certain branches of engineering. In parallel with this, imports will decrease naturally, including energy supplies,” Dilyara Mustafaeva explains.

According to forecasts, the excess of imports over exports will decrease from UAH 55.8 billion at the end of 2025 to UAH 42.8 billion in 2027, and the coverage of imports by exports will increase from 50% to 61%.

The private sector will receive more foreign exchange funds The supply of currency in the private sector will grow, in particular, due to:

• increase in harvest volume and stable demand for Ukrainian agricultural products;
• revival of the world economy, which will support metallurgical enterprises;
• expansion of weapons production within the framework of international initiatives;
  increase in IT export volumes.

“From 2027, we expect a significant revival of the inflow of investments and debt capital. Confidence will return to the foreign exchange market, which will reduce interest in cash currency,” the expert states.

The support of partners will continue to be extremely important In 2026, Ukraine hopes to receive more than 45 billion dollars. international aid, in 2027 — 39 billion dollars. These volumes make it possible to prevent emission financing of the budget.

“On the condition of further implementation of European integration reforms and cooperation with the IMF, the NBU will be able to compensate for the structural deficit of the currency in the future. This is a guarantee of preserving the stability of the market,” Dilyara Mustafaeva emphasizes.

International reserves, according to NBU estimates, will increase to 54 billion dollars. by the end of the current year (5.5 months of imports) and will exceed 6 months of imports in 2027.

The risks remain significant The main dangers for the forecast are military: the intensity of attacks, the destruction of infrastructure, the decline of production activity, the irregularity of external financing, as well as the deepening of migration processes.

“If the main assumptions are confirmed, in 2026-2027, the dollar exchange rate will not exceed 48 hryvnias. The market will continue to be managed. However, everything will depend on the course of the war and the stability of external support,” concludes Dilyara Mustafaeva.

The public organization “Center for Economic Research and Forecasting “Financial Pulse” was founded on March 2, 2015 with the aim of uniting the efforts of participants and specialists of the financial sector of Ukraine for its development and improvement.

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