About 200 thousand more people will leave Ukraine this year, while those willing to return have decreased – NBU

In 2024, the NBU forecasts that 500,000 people left Ukraine, and this process will continue in 2025. Despite the expected return of migrants in 2026, the number of people willing to return is decreasing due to adaptation abroad, which will maintain a labor shortage. This is evidenced by the NBU’s Inflation Report, UNN writes.

Details

The National Bank notes that high security risks, constant shelling and destruction, and the persistence of the deficit negatively affect the quality of life of Ukrainians, which leads to further outward migration. 

“During 2024, the outflow of migrants from Ukraine continued and totaled about 0.5 million people for the year, which was in line with the NBU’s estimates… In 2025, the net outflow of external migrants is expected to continue (about 0.2 million people),” the report says.

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According to the NBU, Ukraine is expected to have a positive migration balance starting in 2026, with about 200,000 people returning. In 2027, this process may accelerate, and the number of returnees will reach 500 thousand.

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The share of those willing to return is expected to decline as Ukrainians continue to adapt abroad. Therefore, a massive and rapid return of migrants under the status quo seems unlikely, and the labor shortage will continue over the forecast period

Recall 

Deputy Prime Minister – Minister of National Unity of Ukraine Oleksiy Chernyshov statedthat “there are 20-25 million of us abroad”.

According to Opendatabot, the number of those who left and did not return in the last year alone is 443 thousand.

Polina Bondarenko, an analyst at the Ilko Kucheriv Democratic Initiatives Foundation, stated that in the event of full border opening, 21% of Ukrainians plan to move abroad for permanent residence, while 70% of respondents said they did not intend to do so.

At the same time, according to Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of National Unity of Ukraine Oleksiy Chernyshov, half of the men of military age currently abroad are ready to return to Ukraine without the end of the war, provided that the issue of reservations is resolved.