“It is difficult to assess the real damage that could have been caused to the boat based on satellite images”, — write: www.radiosvoboda.org
“The explosion occurred a few tens of meters from the submarine. The photo taken on December 16 clearly shows the damage the pier suffered as a result of the explosion. “The Varshavyanka-class submarine, which carries the Kalibr cruise missiles, which Ukraine claimed to have destroyed, is still in its place,” writes Radio Svoboda.
It is difficult to assess the real damage that could have been caused to the boat based on satellite images, but they, as the Russian service of Radio Liberty writes, “allow us to assume that there was no direct hit by the drone into the hull of the submarine.”
The Russian side claims that the drone did not cause any damage to the submarine or its crew.
At the same time, the captain of the 3rd rank of the reserve, who previously served in the military intelligence of Ukraine, commented on the published pictures for the Radio Liberty project – the Krym.Realii website, on the condition of anonymity.
“According to the published satellite images, it is possible to measure the distance from the part of the Varshavyanka submarine visible above the surface of the water to the pier located on the stern side – it is approximately 20 meters. Project 636.3 submarine has a length of 73.9 meters with a maximum width of 9.9 meters. At the same time, below the waterline on the stern side, there is a little more than seven meters of the hull of the boat together with the propeller. That is, from the propeller to the pier is approximately 13 meters. There is no mention of any “several tens of meters”. The video footage clearly shows that the explosion begins opposite the stern of the ship. It was the stern that extinguished the blast wave, and its traces are not visible on the pier, to which the “Varshavyanka” is moored, – said the ex-military officer.
“It is also worth noting that the second submarine was moved to another location after the explosion, while the one that was probably damaged was not,” the former military intelligence officer added.
The Security Service of Ukraine said on December 15 that as a result of the Sub Sea Baby underwater drone attack, the Russian submarine “suffered critical damage and, in fact, was disabled.” It is claimed that four Kalibr cruise missile launchers were placed on board the submarine, with which Russia attacks the territory of Ukraine.
The press service of the Russian Black Sea Fleet acknowledged the fact of the attack by Ukrainian naval drones in the bay of the Novorossiysk naval base, but claims that the information about the nearly destroyed submarine is not true.
Analysts at the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) note that Russia uses submarines of this class to launch Kalibr cruise missile strikes on Ukraine, primarily on the Odesa region, and the Ukrainian strike was likely intended to impair Russia’s ability to target the Odesa region with missiles.
ISW believes that Ukraine’s submarine strike in Novorossiysk shows that the Ukrainian armed forces are continuing to modernize and optimize their unmanned capabilities so that Ukraine can strike Russian military targets at a distance previously considered safe by Russian forces.
So far, among the losses of Russian military equipment, the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine pointed out one submarine: in August 2024, the Ukrainian military reported that it had hit the Rostov-on-Don submarine of the Black Sea Fleet of the Russian Federation in the port of Sevastopol.
After the start of a full-scale invasion of Russia, various objects on the territory of the Russian Federation are subjected to airstrikes.
Most of the attacks were confirmed by Ukrainian forces, in particular the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, stating that the Defense Forces of Ukraine “systematically implement measures aimed at reducing the combat potential of the Russian occupation forces, as well as forcing the Russian Federation to stop armed aggression against Ukraine.”