““Old World Order came an end.””, – WRITE: www.pravda.com.ua
1.
So, the old world order came to an end. The old world order, based on rules, arrangements and values, no longer exists. He has never been perfect, but he existed. Now he is gone.
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It is necessary to describe the reasons for the destruction of the world order in a separate article, here only I note that developed countries have received a benefit from the world order, and the development of countries (those that develop and catch up or at least pretend) tried to destroy it because it is unprofitable.
At some point, the development of the country (especially China) began to catch up with the developed, and the most powerful developed country, the United States, decided that it was time to move from the protection of the old order to its destruction. That is why the American people chose Trump, who became an expression of this idea. This is not an accident, but the embodiment of a trend (like everything else in the world). Previously, on the one hand, the load -bearing structure was supported, supported and repaired on the other; Now the design is destroyed on both sides, it will go much faster.
In this “new world without order” the United States will not defend their European or Asian allies. There are now no alliances and allies in this world, there are no mutual obligations, and old contracts can be revised unilaterally. There are only large strong countries that take what they want and the small weak ones that are victims of such policies. At least that’s what the new American administration sees the world. They are not isolationists – they are expansionists, and we should not surprise the requirements for Greenland, Canada or Panama now.
Obviously, the current American administration is not monolithic. It consists of many groups with fairly different values and interests, but now I will only mention the two most important ones. Let us call them conditionally American FIRST and techno -habitats (it would be more correct to call them technofurists, using this word not for the chop, but to refer to their ideology). American First dreams of destroying the world order, but to strengthen the US state to dominate America over the world. Techno -locations dream of destroying the world order, including the US state to dominate the world their technocorporations.
The first group strategy is described in the 2025 project from Heritage Foundation. Techno -locality strategy is formed by Musk, Til, Saxi and other representatives of this cohort. These two groups have opposite views on taxation, intelligence services, migrants (techno -habitats need talents from all over the world, American First against migrants) and other issues, so sooner or later they will quarrel. But so far, they are one in the desire to destroy what was. “We destroy the whole world of violence, with roots, and then …” – we have heard it somewhere.
New America does not want to be a global police and follow the order in the world. It will not protect democracy, will not spread education, will not develop institutions, etc. – you only need your assets (only China did). New America does not believe in alliances and arrangements, it believes in the right in a multipolar world. If you are strong, do what you want. If it is weak, give “clothes, shoes and a motorcycle”, as the terminator said. It is neocolonialism, or in economic or power format.
New America does not believe in multilateralism (multilaterality), that is, it does not need international institutions, so it is possible that the United States will come out of NATO in the near future (if not formally, then in fact), the World Trade Organization, and maybe even the UN. Musk will explain this with the need to keep US funds from waste, Trump-disability of institutions (and will be right, but instead of repair he will be offered to demolish everything under zero), the project-2025-because if the United States needs to be assisted by someone, they can do it directly. , “without unnecessary bureaucrats”.
2.
What new American policy means for Europe? The security contract with Europe, Pax Americana, has ended. Europe as the center of force is unprofitable for America: now it is not an ally (because there are no allies), but an alternative center of force – but the fewer centers of force, the better. And here the goals of America coincide with the goals of Russia and China: to separate Europe with America, to break the European Union and to have Europe weak, separated and powerless in the form of individual unprotected markets and a robbery. A kind of irreversible seal that can be baked on all sides.
It is still unclear how the US administration of the area of influence in Europe sees: whether it will plunder it on both sides, whether Western Europe will be a zone of exceptional interests of America, and Eastern Europe – Russia (as it was during the Cold War), which will be with the encroachment of China (which It is a little buying Europe in retail) and so on. But the main thing that they need to collapse the European Union, to separate everyone, and for this they openly support Eurosceptics from the extreme right (and Russia also the far left) end of the political spectrum. If there are strong individual leaders on the wreckage of Europe, the United States will cooperate with them. So far, they are neither in France nor in Germany, nor in Britain.
3.
What new American policy means for Russia? America sees China with its greatest opponent. And here we have what I call the greatest geopolitical mistake of the 21st century: the belief of Americans in the ability to tear Russia from China and turn it in the opposite direction – against China. In our opinion, it is impossible to do this. But, as we know, every American administration at the beginning sought to “restart” relations with Russia, falsely considering it part of Western civilization. All these “reboots” did not end with nothing, but it was later.
In such a situation, the main concern of the US administration is the collapse of the Russian regime. It is necessary to prevent this at any cost. Two years ago, I wrote that the fear of defeat of Russia is so exceeding the fear of the defeat of Ukraine (without which the world has lived well for hundreds of years) that there may be a moment when, instead of supporting Ukraine against Russia, America will begin to support Russia against Ukraine. Unpleasant, but this day has come.
For the first month of his cadence, Trump derived Russia from international isolation, instead of an aggressor and an international terrorist, he presented it with a powerful country that has the right to his place at the table of the great powers. It is possible that sanctions will soon be lifted.
Imagine that in the midst of World War II, instead of helping Britain to fight the Nazi Reich, instead of Land league for the USSR, he will send negotiators to meet Hitler representative The most guilty of the war, and with a friend Adolf we somehow Let’s agree.
4.
What does new American policy mean to Ukraine? First, there will be no support for Ukraine. In the fall, Ukrainian analysts explained that the US support would not be the results of the presidential election.
Sometimes it seems to us that someone in the US administration hates Ukraine and someone loves. This is a children’s approach: it seems to the child that she is in the spotlight, and everyone around is somehow treated with her, good or bad. An adult knows that the world is mostly indifferent to you. The world is not Ukrainian -centric. In their understanding, Ukraine is not good and not bad – it is simply irrelevant, that is, it is not related to business.
Ukraine prevents current America from doing two things. First, weaken Europe to be defenseless. Secondly, strengthen Russia to use against China. Therefore, Ukraine should be punished – nothing personal, only business.
Popular now in the environment of the new American administration, metaphor compares the current war with the American Civil War. Ukraine looks like a rebellious southern province. The good North will eventually defeat the bad souths and put up. And by foreign countries (USA, Europe) it is not necessary to go into another’s civil war.
5.
What do we do in this situation?
First, stop thinking that we can somehow “sell” ourselves to a new American administration. We are an obstruction for her in the implementation of their plans. We have nothing to offer them.
How can America press on Ukraine? It is unlikely to stop assistance because the assistance will be stopped in any case. Some aspects of this cessation will be painful for us, very painful, much more than USAID dismantling. But I do not see any opportunities to keep this help.
Secondly, it is time to understand that our main ally is Europe. I wrote about it a few months ago. Europe does not stand without Ukraine. Ukraine does not stand without Europe. We are in the same boat, or we will flow together, or together. It would be nice if in Europe it was more clearly understood as we were.
Ukraine needs Europe as a shield. We have the largest army on the continent. We are the only one that knows how to restrain Russia. We are the only one that is able to wage a modern high -tech war.
Europe needs Ukraine as a rear. As a source of financial assistance, weapons, technologies, investments, political and moral support. We are doomed to be together.
Will Europe be able to wake up quickly? Ukraine has paid the blood of its best sons and daughters for three years of European awakening. We helped Europe win time to prepare, but they did not use it. Only now, under the influence of the obvious destruction of alliances and promises, begins awakening. We spoke to Europe that we protect it, and they did not believe it until the new reality made it obvious.
Is Europe eventually consolidated or paralyzed? Various analysts evaluate the likelihood of these two scenarios differently. We do not know how the elections in Germany will end and how stable the new government coalition will be. France also has internal political problems with a potential turn to the extreme right end of the political spectrum in the next elections. But with us will be at least the United Kingdom, the Nordic-Baltic eight, the Netherlands, Poland and the Czech Republic. I will talk about Poland separately: nevertheless, we will not survive in the world we currently have.
It is possible that as a result of US and Russian attacks on European unity, the European Union will cease existence. Sometimes there will be an impression that Russia has overcome everyone. But at the same time, such a potential defeat will be able to give impetus to forming a new union – security, not economic. In this union, Ukraine will play an important role because it is impossible without us. It is not excluded that the intermarium (intermarium) from an unrealistic political swindler will turn into reality.
By the way, we need to accelerate European integration as much as possible, despite the fact that we can find ourselves in a situation where the EU will cease to exist. The further we move along this path, the more important our role and the better conditions in the new union will be.
Third, it is worth looking for allies outside the US and the European Union, and it is worth mentioning first of all Turkey. Those who look at the world with a child’s look, attribute to our enemies, all who did not sign our documents did not speak clear enough, once did something in their favor that we did not like it. But so you can find yourself in a world where everyone around is considered enemies. The world is not spinning around Ukraine, every country cares first and foremost about itself. And we need to take care of ourselves and look for allies in this case.
6.
Since Russia cannot block Ukraine with a military method, it will do it political. The idea of elections during the war, that is, before signing a peace agreement with security guarantees, will be devastating for Ukraine (even signing such an agreement is not peace, but it comes only with the beginning of its actual implementation). The US and Russia are now united in promoting this idea “elections first, then peace” is the best way to flood Ukraine quickly and inexpensively. I wrote about the elections dozens of times and I will write.
I note that the loss of Ukrainian statehood, which will come afterwards, does not guarantee Ukrainians survival (the experience of the twentieth century, Bucha, Mariupol and other temporarily occupied territories will help to understand it). Russia mobilizes everyone without deferrals and bookings and throws on the next wave of imperial expansion – to defenseless Europe. And there will be nowhere to hide – you can escape to Poland, but the war will come there for you.
By the way, it is no secret that Trump wants the Nobel Peace Prize. He is convinced that a ceasefire is enough. We know it is not. But even if the peace agreement is concluded, the Nobel Prize is presented, and the peace agreement is then violated, it will only mean one for Trump – that we are guilty, and it is the greatest peacemaker of the present. He brought us peace and we rejected it.
7.
What do we do?
First, we understand that we have a crisis that threatens the loss of statehood and life to many of us. Political elites need to immediately stop political strife and persecution, poor decisions and cabinet management, as well as preparation for elections (which will not be if we do not survive). A hundred years ago, it was such strife that led to a catastrophe. Political elites need to come to the people together with a call for unity and uniting the threat of loss of everything. It is said that Ukrainians usually unite only 5 minutes before the execution, so we have the last opportunity to change this false tradition.
Second, take a subjective position. Ukraine will not agree to no conditions that do not provide the country and its citizens. We are not obliged to be a victim. Not to be offended or responded to verbal attacks, but to express their interests and their position in a cold and adulthood.
Improving management in the armed forces and in the rear, in the economy, MIC, Energy and other areas is a matter of survival.
There is no immediate catastrophe. We have resources this year and must use this time as efficiently as possible to awaken and gather an ally in to provide for yourself resources for the next and subsequent years. The main effort should be focused on Europe.
What to do to everyone and each of us?
– to realize the scale of the problem and the inability to escape from it. Either you in the Armed Forces or for the Armed Forces. Join victory or service or their own money and volunteering.
– To put in order in your head and keep it cold, not to lead to Russian propaganda, not to spread it. If you can’t work for victory – do not work for defeat. The level of information attacks will grow in the near future.
– To help those who are more difficult. Maintain each other. We are the network society of free people, and it is the key to our stability.
“I would like this not to happen in my time,” Frodo said. “I also,” said Gandalf, “and everyone who lives at that time. But it is not to decide them. We can only decide what to do with we data sometimes.”
Valery Baker
Source
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