While the national team Sweden going through its worst times in decades, a story is still being born in local football that can restore the belief in miracles. The story of the Mjölby club is from the southern coast, from the village of Hallevik, where only 1,500 people live. This club is one step away from the championship. With four rounds to go, the team are 11 points clear and it seems the question is not if, but when they will become champions – the most unexpected since Leicester in 2015/16. And this despite the fact that then Myelby still played in the third league.

Scandinavians generally love football cinderella stories. Danish Midtjyllan, Norwegian Bude-Glimt are clubs that have risen from obscurity to the level of teams admired by the whole of Europe. And now it’s Sweden’s turn.

In a country where the clubs are owned by the fans (thanks to the famous 51 percent model), and in the first ten years of the 21st century, as many as eight different champions have changed, in recent years everything has gone towards a monopoly. Malmö won eight of the last twelve titles and seemed to turn the championship into a predictable story. But Mjelby are breaking this scenario. Their budget is only about 15% of Malmö’s capacity, which is why this tale is so incredible.

And this miracle is in two senses at once. First of all, the very fact that the club from Hallevik has established itself in the upper part of the table deserves respect. Their secret lies in simple things: having an identity, maintaining a team spirit and preparing thoroughly for each match.

The coach, 59-year-old Anders Thorstensson, knows this club well – he is now in charge for the third time Myelby. He is assisted by Carl Marius Axum, a true football scientist with a PhD in visual perception in football. The team uses data wisely in selection, finds talent in different countries, like Gambian striker Abdoulaye Manneh, and is not afraid to sell its best young players to invest in development.

And secondly, their championship looks even more amazing if you look at the numbers. By Expected Goals (xG) Myelby just seventh in the league. Malmö and Gäkken have much better statistical indicators, but are… in seventh and ninth place. This historical exceedance of all forecasts is a real sensation that even analysts cannot explain.

*Horizontally — average number of points per gamevertically — expected goal difference (xGD).
Most teams are located near the red line: the better you play, the more points you have. But Mjällby is far to the rightfar from everyone. This means that according to their statistical indicators, they wouldn’t have score as many points as possible.

As statistics show, the average indicator Myelby — 2.42 points per game — typically equates to an xG difference of around 0.75 per game. They have only 0.18. That is, according to all the numbers, they should not be champions. What’s more, their expected goals figures are almost the same as Westeros last season – and they were relegated. Their coach at the time only waved his hands, talking about “wasted moments, empty nets and just crazy misses.”

So what is the secret of Mielby? First, it is worth understanding on which side of the field they work wonders. In attack, everything is good, but not sensational. They have scored about 6.6 more goals than the xG stats show. It’s not bad, but not unheard of.

*Blue columns are matches where the team scored more than expected by xG.
The red ones are where Less. We can see that Mjällby spent most of the early season matches with phenomenal efficiency in attack

If you look at the last matches, it may seem that the team lives only on the standards – six of the last nine goals came precisely after them, another from the penalty. But this is rather a new trend: opponents began to defend more deeply, understanding the strength Myelby. After all, not long ago, the team scored 30 goals in a row without using standards.

And the thing is that Myelby really plays good football. Their favorite formation is 3-2-4-1, with quick combinations and wing players who manage to both defend and appear in the opponent’s penalty area at the right moment. Elliot Stroud stands out on the left, an explosive, technical player. He has been compared to Alex Grimaldo, who once led Bayer to an unexpected championship.

The team knows how to create simple moments – many goals come from passes along the goal line or quick clearances in the high area, when the opponent has not yet had time to reorganize.

But the main magic Myelby — in defense. According to all metrics, they should have already conceded 35 goals, but they actually conceded only 17. That is, half as much as expected! In each of their last 17 matches, they have conceded less than xG dictates.

*Here the blue bars mean matches where the team missed lessthan it would have for xG rivals.

In part, this is due to the inaccuracy of opponents. But there are two other key reasons. Firstly, Myelby incredibly compact without a ball. They instantly get back on the defensive when they lose ground and almost never allow a shot without pressure. And this means that even when xG shows a “big chance”, that shot actually happens under the pressure of several players.

Secondly, they have a miracle goalkeeper. Noel Tornqvist, 23 years old, 198 cm tall, always wears a helmet like the one worn by Peter Cech. His reaction and calmness are the foundation of this miracle.

Tornqvist gets rave reviews not only for his handwork, but also for his accurate passes, something that is increasingly seen as the main virtue of modern goalkeepers. But his real strength is in hitting. In one-on-one situations, Noel acts like lightning: he instantly runs out of the goal, cuts the corner, rushes under the ball and simply extinguishes the moment.

For the entire season, Tornqvist has only one mistake that can be recorded on his account – a missed free kick from a long distance. The rest is flawless. Not surprisingly, after perennial number one Robin Olsen left the team, it was Tornqvist who was called up to the national team. And it is even less surprising that a bigger club, Como, has already paid attention to him. The Italians bought Tornqvist back in August, but allowed him to finish the season at home. After the championship holiday, Noel will go to Serie B.

There is another important factor — the game state. Myelby open the score very often: they scored the first goal in 21 out of 26 matches. And then the opponents were forced to open up, attack in numbers, leaving a vulnerable rear. But one must be able not only to take advantage of these moments, but also to withstand the pressure – and Myelby makes it brilliant.

Their opponents cannot help but acknowledge the obvious. “Myelby – a really great team. They are fantastic, exceeded all expectations”– admits Kim Hellberg, coach of Gammarbu, who goes second. — “This is a team that has squeezed the most out of what it has created. If you look at the statistics, they will win are showing their indicators, it’s incredible.

For the championship It is enough for Mjölby to beat Gothenburg away today. But they are not going to relax in the club. Another goal is to score five points and set a new record for the number of points in the history of the league. If they do it, it won’t just be a victory over their rivals. It will be a victory over mathematics, logic and all football predictions.

The Athletic