“Analysts noted that the Russian Ministry of Defense pays “abnormally much attention to praising the capture” of Velika Novosilka, probably trying to shape the West’s perception of the situation on the battlefield and reduce international support for Ukraine”, — write: www.radiosvoboda.org
“Geolocated footage released on January 26 shows that Russian troops have advanced north along Tsentralnaya Street in the northern part of Velika Novosilka. Some Russian sources, including the Ministry of Defense, claimed on January 26 that Russian forces had completely captured Velika Novosilka, while other Russian sources claimed that Russian forces had captured most of the settlement… However, ISW has observed geolocated evidence and believes that Russian troops occupy 89 percent of the settlement,” the report said.
Analysts also drew attention to the words of Viktor Tregubov, spokesman for the Khortytsia operational-strategic group of troops, who stated on January 26 that Russian troops did not occupy all of Velika Novosilka, and Ukrainian troops maintained their positions in the settlement.
“On January 26, the Ukrainian brigade operating in Velyka Novosilka announced that the fighting within the settlement continues, and there is no threat of encirclement of the brigade’s units by Russian forces. ISW did not observe independent evidence of the encirclement of Ukrainian forces by Russian forces in Velika Novosilka,” the report says.
Analysts noted that the Russian Ministry of Defense is paying “abnormally much attention to praising the capture” of Velika Novosilka, probably trying to shape the West’s perception of the situation on the battlefield and reduce international support for Ukraine.
“Russia is likely trying to use the claimed capture of Velika Novosilka to influence Western perceptions of the situation on the battlefield in Donetsk region and to spread narratives that Russian victories on the battlefield are inevitable and that Ukrainian positions are rapidly deteriorating. Russian advances in the western Donetsk region continue to be gradual and well below normal for modern mechanized warfare. “In addition, it remains unclear whether Russian forces will be able to quickly advance beyond Velika Novosilka, as it is unclear how much combat power their elements still retain after several months of continuous offensive operations,” the report said.
The ISW also noted that Velika Novosilka is located next to several rivers, which “is likely to complicate and hinder the further tactical advance of Russian forces in this area.”
According to analysts, the capture of Velika Novosilka will probably allow the Russian military command to decide on the redeployment of units of the Eastern Military District of Russia from the Velika Novosilka area to other priority operational areas, which will indicate the priority areas for the Russian command to conduct offensive actions in the spring and summer of 2025.
On the afternoon of January 26, the Russian Ministry of Defense announced the capture of the village of Velyka Novosilka in the southwest of the Donetsk region by Russian troops.
The Ukrainian analytical project DeepState, which monitors the course of the fighting, previously reported that Russian forces took control of the village of Vremivka and almost completely occupied the neighboring settlement of Velyka Novosilka. Officially, the Ukrainian command did not confirm this.
It is a settlement with a pre-war population of about six thousand people.
Velika Novosilka is the last relatively large outpost of the Defense Forces in the south of Donbas. Here, the Armed Forces of Ukraine recaptured some territories in the summer of 2023, and Russia began its assaults in response in the fall of 2024.