Russia will increase Shahed production in 2025 – ISW

Russia “has not yet overcome the limitations” in its ability to produce and use Shahed drones, but it will likely continue to struggle with these limitations well into 2025, according to a new report by the US-based Institute for the Study of War (ISW).

It is noted that “the Institute has already paid attention to signs that Western sanctions are making it difficult for Russia to obtain quality components for Shahed drones and that the aggressor is increasingly relying on low-quality Chinese engines to power drones of this type.”

At the same time, analysts say, “Ukrainian innovations in the field of radio-electronic warfare also allow the Armed Forces of Ukraine to more effectively repel the strikes of heavy Shahed drones.”

ISW predicts that Russian forces will likely continue to adjust their strike packages throughout the winter of 2024-2025 to “cause significant damage to Ukraine’s power system and critical infrastructure.”

“Russia is likely to continue to increase the production and use of Shahed drones after the expected signing of the Russian-Iranian Comprehensive Strategic Partnership Agreement in January 2025,” the Institute for the Study of War notes.

Earlier, the Russian authorities announced a drone attack on the city of Kazan in Tatarstan. The Russian side reported eight “arrivals” of UAVs, among them one was at an industrial enterprise, six at a residential area.

On December 23, the Main Intelligence Directorate of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine reported that a warehouse with parts for Shahed attack drones worth $16 million was destroyed in Russian Tatarstan. According to the report, the warehouse was destroyed in the territory of the economic zone “Alabuga”, the premises contained 65 fuselages of attack drones, as well as engines, navigation systems, thermal imaging cameras for the production of 400 Shahed-136 units.

Before that, drones flew to Tatarstan five times. At the beginning of April, UAVs attacked the territory of Tatarstan for the first time since the beginning of the Russian war in Ukraine. Drones then flew to the territory of Yelabuga and Nizhnyokamsk enterprises.

According to British intelligence, in November Russia launched about 2,300 UAVs of various types over Ukraine, which once again exceeded the total number for the previous month. It said that the monthly number of strike drones has been steadily increasing throughout 2024, with a significant increase of more than 200 units compared to the previous month since July of this year.