“Analysts of the Institute of War Study (ISW) indicate that in the event of the exit of Ukrainian troops from all over the Donetsk region, within the framework of agreements with the Russian Federation, the Russians will receive control over the “belt of fortresses” – the main fortified defense line in the Donetsk region since 2014 – and will have more favorable positions for the Defense.”, – WRITE: www.pravda.com.ua
Source: ISW Report for August 8th
Details: Analysts believe that the surrender of the rest of the Donetsk region as a prerequisite for ceasefire without commitments to the final peaceful settlement will provide Russian troops with extremely good opportunities for restoring attacks on much more profitable conditions, avoiding a long and bloody struggle for land.
Advertising:
The adoption of such a requirement will make Ukraine abandon its “belt of fortresses”, the main fortified defense line in Donetsk region since 2014, without any guarantee that the fighting will not be restored.
It is noted that the “fortress belt” of 50 kilometers has served as a major obstacle to the Kremlin’s territorial ambitions in Ukraine for the last 11 years. It consists of four large cities and several towns and towns that extend from north to south along the Konstantinovka-Slavic motorway. Ukraine has spent time, money and effort to strengthen the fortress zone and create a significant defense infrastructure in these cities over the past 11 years.
Analysts emphasize that the Russians have not been able to capture the “fortress belt” for 3.5 years of a full -scale war and such an operation “will probably be many years with significant losses of personnel and material means.”
The abandonment of parts of the Donetsk region held by Ukraine will lead to the fact that Russian troops will find themselves on the borders of Donetsk region, which is a much less protected line than the current one. This will require the Ukrainian forces of urgent construction of massive defense fortifications along the border areas of Kharkiv and Dnipropetrovsk regions, whose terrain is not suitable for performing the functions of the defense line.
It is noted that potential Ukrainian defense lines in the area will pass through open fields, and natural obstacles, such as Oskil and Siverskyi Donets, are too far in the East to serve as a defensive position for the Ukrainian forces.
Literally: “Russian positions along the border areas of Donetsk-Kharkiv region and Donetsk-Dnipropetrovsk region will provide a more profitable starting point for the future Russian offensive in neighboring areas of Kharkiv or Dnipropetrovsk regions.
ISW continues to assess that Russian troops will almost certainly violate any future ceasefire or peace agreement and restore military aggression against Ukraine in the future, if the peace agreement does not include reliable monitoring mechanisms and security for Ukraine. ”
Details: According to analysts, Russian troops will probably use positions along the border of Donetsk and Kharkiv regions and future offenses from Kupyansk to make threaten Kharkiv In case of hostilities.
ISW notes that Putin retains its uncompromising requirements for Ukraine’s capitulation and remains uninterested in bona fide negotiations. Also, the Kremlin does not create internal information conditions necessary for the Russian people to agree to settlement, which does not imply a complete victory of the Russian Federation in Ukraine.