ISW: The Kremlin will face a shrinking stockpile of weapons and become more dependent on its foreign partners

Russia is likely to face increasing problems in the production and procurement of materiel needed for its war against Ukraine, and the Kremlin is likely to become increasingly dependent on its foreign partners for this, the US-based Institute for the Study of War (ISW) says.

“To maintain the pace of its offensive operations in Ukraine, the Russian military relies heavily on restocking Soviet-era weapons and military equipment, including armored vehicles,” the report says.

“The Russian government will likely have to continue mobilizing the Russian economy and defense industry and invest in capacity building if the Russian military is to maintain its current pace of operations in the medium to long term as Russia depletes its limited Soviet stockpiles. But it is unclear whether the Russian defense industry will be able to produce enough to sustain the high level of equipment losses that Russian forces are experiencing in Ukraine, even with further economic mobilization,” the analysts added.

Earlier, ISW noted that Russia’s efforts to expand its defense industry are unlikely to be viable in the medium to long term due to expected labor shortages and the effects of Western sanctions.

Analysts note that the Russian authorities have recently intensified military cooperation with North Korea, as evidenced by the visit of the head of the Russian Security Council, Sergei Shoigu, to Pyongyang on September 13 and the visit of Russian leader Vladimir Putin in June 2024, when he signed an agreement on a comprehensive strategic partnership with the leader North Korea by Kim Jong Un.

“The deepening of Russia’s military partnership with North Korea is a symbol of the relations that Russia seeks to establish with Iran, the People’s Republic of China and other desired partners. Russia will likely face a reduction in its stockpiles of weapons and equipment and will struggle to make up for this shortfall, unless it can bypass massive Western sanctions and significantly expand its engagement with foreign partners to obtain sufficient military equipment, components and dual-use items.” , – said in ISW.

The day before, the head of the Main Directorate of Intelligence of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine Kyrylo Budanov said that the military aid provided by North Korea to Russia is causing the greatest damage to Ukraine.

“Our biggest problem among all these allies of Russia is North Korea. Because with the amount of military products they supply, they actually influence the intensity of hostilities,” Budanov said on September 14 at a conference in Kyiv.

His words came at a time when North Korean leader Kim Jong Un promised to deepen ties with Russia.

Russian President Vladimir Putin visited the capital of North Korea in June, where he signed an agreement on mutual defense with Kim Jong Un.

Western powers accuse North Korea of ​​selling ammunition to Russia in violation of sanctions, which has been waging a full-scale war against Ukraine for more than two and a half years.

In addition, Iran is one of Russia’s key military sponsors and has previously provided it with drones for use in the war in Ukraine. US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken confirmed on September 10 that Iran had sent short-range ballistic missiles (ICBMs) to Russia and warned that Russian forces would likely use them on the battlefield “within weeks”.

Iranian officials continue to deny that Tehran has sent weapons to Moscow.

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