“The Kremlin “with a high probability” plans to use the population of Belarus and its location on the eastern flanks of NATO, researchers believe”, — write: www.radiosvoboda.org
“The Kremlin is in the final stages of a decades-long strategic effort to effectively annex Belarus — work that will forever expand Russia’s military and economic capabilities to pursue its revanchist geopolitical goals against the United States and NATO,” according to a press release on the report.
Analysts point out that Belarus is not just an ally of Russia – the Kremlin is transforming this country into a “strategic source of support” for Russia’s ability to expand its global influence.
Read also: “Volodya, it’s not me”: Zelensky recalled how Lukashenko apologized for launching missiles from Belarus
“The Kremlin will use its recent but deeply entrenched gains in Belarus to offset the costs of Russia’s protracted war against Ukraine, accelerate Russia’s recovery from the war in Ukraine, and help it prepare for future wars faster than Russia could on its own. Politicians should start planning for a future in which Belarus will not only be an enslaved nation, but also a de facto extension of the Russian Federation,” ISW believes.
The institute adds that in order to complete the annexation of Belarus, the Kremlin will try to formalize the “union state” as a state entity under the leadership of Russia. This would give Moscow control over most or all aspects of Belarusian government. This will include, in particular, the permanent basing of Russian troops in Belarus. The Kremlin is “highly likely” to use the country’s population of more than 9 million people and its strategic location on NATO’s eastern flanks.
“Russia’s efforts to de facto annex Belarus, although not complete, are in the late stages and have already reached stages that pose a security threat to the United States, NATO and Ukraine, as well as a threat to the existence of Belarus as a sovereign state. Russia does not need additional integration gains in Belarus to threaten the West. The existing set of military, political and economic integration achievements of Russia in Belarus since 2020 already creates threats for the West, which policymakers should take into account,” the authors of the report conclude.
Oleksandr Lukashenko has repeatedly declared his “solidarity” with Moscow, calling the full-scale war against Ukraine a “special military operation” and justifying Russia’s aggression.
Earlier, Lukashenko appealed to the President of the Russian Federation, Vladimir Putin, with a request to place the Russian Oreshnik system on the territory of the country. Putin replied that he “considers it possible to deploy Oreshnik on the territory of Belarus in the second half of 2025.”