““The Russian military almost certainly cannot sustain daily casualties of more than 1,200 people indefinitely as long as Putin avoids yet another forced draft of reservists.””, — write: www.radiosvoboda.org
Analysts recall that Russian forces lost nearly 200 tanks, more than 650 armored vehicles and suffered approximately 80,000 casualties, capturing approximately 1,500 square kilometers during intensified Russian offensive operations in September and October 2024.
British Defense Minister John Healy told The Telegraph on November 9 that, according to British military intelligence, losses of Russian forces “reached a new high” in October 2024.
“Previously, ISW received data indicating that in the Pokrovsky district alone, since October 2023, Russian troops have lost at least five divisions of armored vehicles and tanks. Russian forces have probably accumulated a large amount of equipment in priority areas of the front, but the reduction of Soviet-era stocks of tanks and armored vehicles and the current rate of production of armored vehicles are likely to make such losses prohibitive in the long term,” the report said.
The ISW says it has seen signs that the Russian army is trying to recruit enough soldiers to compensate for losses on the front lines.
“Russian President Vladimir Putin, in particular, acknowledged Russia’s persistent labor shortage and dependence on migrants to meet that labor shortage during his address to the Valdai Club on November 7, and ISW noted that Russia also depends on forcing migrants to enter of the Russian army to meet its needs,” say analysts.
“The Russian military almost certainly cannot sustain daily casualties of more than 1,200 people indefinitely as long as Putin avoids yet another forced draft of reservists. Even the forced mobilization of the reserve will not solve the larger problem that Putin obviously faces in finding enough people to work in Russian industry as well as feed the front,” the ISW added.
Analysts have also noted that Russian war bloggers continue to complain about disproportionately high casualties, and that broader dissatisfaction with casualties among Russia’s ultra-nationalist community could also affect Putin’s calculations going forward.
In October 2024, Russia suffered record losses of military equipment in the last two years of the war. 695 units of armored vehicles, aircraft, helicopters and other assets were destroyed, damaged, abandoned on the battlefield or captured in just one month – this is the data of the Oryx military analytics project.
The Russian army lost more equipment than during this October exactly two years ago during the retreat from the Kharkiv region.
At the end of October – at the beginning of November, Russia developed the pace of its offensive in Ukraine: the enemy is burning a huge amount of resources to seize kilometers of Ukrainian territory and is on the offensive in the Kursk region of the Russian Federation. If in the summer the Russian forces along the entire length of the front moved exclusively to infantry attacks, then in the fall they resumed the use of heavy equipment, first of all the aggressor stormed the Kurakhiv direction with columns, writes the Radio Liberty Donbass.Realii project.