“Recently, JP Morgan has published scenarios according to which he predicts that the probability of a “Georgian scenario” for Ukraine is 50%. I, as a proud Ukrainian citizen and creator of the modern Georgian state, I want to declare that there will be no “Georgian scenario”, as an important Western company understands in Ukraine.”, – WRITE: www.pravda.com.ua
Ukraine is much larger than Georgia. It has strategic depths, unlike Georgia, where 40 minutes of riding from the leading Russian positions to Tbilisi. Accordingly, people in Ukraine are much less afraid that Russia will capture the whole of Ukraine.
Although Russian aggression against Georgia began in 1991, the hot phase of the open Russian invasion of 2008 lasted only 5 days. Therefore, in part of Georgian society, the fear of direct genocide is not so pronounced as the Ukrainians after more than three years of a large -scale war covering Bucha and Mariupol, the destroyed cities of the East of the country.
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In Ukraine, despite all the vicissitudes with Washington, there is much more support from the event than in Georgia. There is now much more clarity in the causes of war than it was in 2008. And most importantly, unlike the Georgian situation, at least the main countries of Europe directly associate the survival of Ukraine with its own safety.
Another important difference is that there is no own Ivanishvili in Ukraine. Medvedchuk is neutralized; Akhmetov, given its support of the Armed Forces, is completely excluded. Among the current Ukrainian politicians, no one dares to go to Moscow and directly associate with Putin, while in Georgia, there were several such politicians from the first ranks.
Ukraine will not become Georgia, since Zelensky has a lot more experience and understanding of the situation than at one time I had and my team. For a clear reason, then all of us happened for the first time on the background of the fact that the Obama administration openly pushed us, so as not to interfere with restarting with Moscow. And it was much more intense than the current friction with Ukraine’s partners.
And the last thing JP morgan is wrong: the Georgian scenario has already stopped working in Georgia itself, where the power of the Russian Gaulayter Ivanishvili no longer has any support among the population and cracks at the seams.
In any case, the example of Georgia, which did not lose the hot phase of the war, but then lost peace in the conditions of a continuous hybrid attack, serves as a reminder, so as not to relax and lose vigilance either now or in the future.
Saakashvili
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