“Warnings do not mean guaranteed shutdowns, but they allow you to prepare the population, business and local authorities for possible scenarios.”, – WRITE: www.pravda.com.ua
The extent of losses and recovery challenges The power system is included in the next winter season after unprecedented destruction of 2023-2024. Despite the heroic efforts of repair crews and donor support, the great generation is being restored slowly. According to Ukrenergo, in the peak period 2025, the power deficit reached more than 35% of the country’s needs.
Some of the objects require deep modernization or replacement of equipment, which is made according to individual specifications and has long delivery time. These losses cannot be compensated for exclusively with emergency repairs, the system is under constant balance on the verge.
The Russians have destroyed or damaged up to 10 GW or more than 45% of generating capacity – TPP and hydroelectric power plant. They have failed about 90% of DTEK’s heat generation. Hydrogeneration received significant injuries.
Under constant attacks are energy infrastructure (substations, transformers, high -voltage lines) and generation. Repeated attacks on Trypillya TPP, where restorative work was underway, only proves it.
Warning as a tool of preparation In the communications of energy, the words “warning”, “possibly”, “if necessary” are increasingly sounded. This is not a sign of panic, but a tool for training.
Forecasting consumption and state of the power system is a dynamic process. The situation may change daily depending on the temperature, intensity of shelling, technical faults or the situation in fuel warehouses.
Warnings do not mean guaranteed shutdowns, but they allow you to prepare the population, business and local authorities for possible scenarios.
At the same time, on September 15, Ukrenergo stated that the repair of damaged equipment and replenishment of stocks for possible repairs is currently underway. In the absence of systemic attacks on energy objects, the country is capable of passing the winter season without restrictions on electricity consumption.
Therefore, discussing the schedules of shutdowns, risk zones, scenarios of emergency deployment – not speculation, but some of the planning in the face of uncertainty. These are scenarios for energy, authorities, enterprises and international partners.
Why right now The onset of cold is traditionally accompanied by an increase in electricity consumption, in particular through the use of heaters and electric boilers. Even in peacetime from November to February, the most comprehensive period for the system. Now, in military conditions and with damaged infrastructure, the risks are increasing.
In the summer, the situation was partially rescued by solar generation, which in the peak hours covered 10-15% of needs. Due to the decrease in daylight and worsening weather, this proportion decreases. In addition, the need for shunting capacity is increasing, which can be quickly started and stopped in the event of a shortage. Such capacities are enough.
The highest risks to the autumn and winter are the deficiency of generation in peak hours (morning and in the evening), lack of shunting capacity for balancing, limiting imports through technical infrastructure factors, attacks on substations and transmission lines, uneven access to electricity in different regions.
Therefore, energy companies are now reminded of consumers of the importance of electricity savings and the possibility of imposing restrictions.
Responsibility: the market and the state The problem of shutdowns has not only the technical but also the institutional component. Ukraine still does not have a long -term energy strategy approved. Although the crisis management works effectively, strategic vision – how to restore the balance of generation, reduce vulnerability, and provide stable tariffs – is still missing.
At the same time, businesses and communities are beginning to take responsibility for their energy independence. Over the past year, the number of distributed generation projects has increased sharply, small SES and winds appear on the roofs of plants and logistics. Systems of accumulation are installed, networks are upgraded. This is a sign of a new phase when the market responds faster than the regulator. However, without state support and predicted policy, this approach will not notify the country’s scale losses.
What is done to stabilize Against the background of threats and difficulties, the energy sector does not remain idle. In 2025 there is an activation in several directions.
Deployment of distributed generation. Small cogeneration installations, gas -piston power plants, biogas complexes unload the network and create reserves.
Investment in renewable energy. Despite debt problems before RES, investors are deploying new projects, especially in the western regions. Some communities launch local SES to provide social infrastructure.
After 2022, RES became a major hope for decentralization of generation, but Russian shelling showed the vulnerability of this model. The wind was particularly affected.
In Ukraine, 1,947 MW of wind power was put into operation. 40 MW of them were destroyed or damaged and 1,300 MW were in the occupied territory. In 2025, 200 MW of new wind farms will be put into operation, and by 2030 – another 4 GW. The potential of the wind farm in Ukraine is estimated at 100-150 GW of installed power.
Use of energy storage. The first stages of development of accumulation systems (Bess) demonstrate the potential for alignment of load peaks, but their capacity is still insignificant: 17.4 MW under technical conditions at 3 GW.
Development of energy communities. Local energy -independence initiatives are gaining momentum. Micromets for schools, hospitals, water utilities with a guaranteed power source are created in the absence of centralized supply.
What can a business make Realities are forcing businesses to take more responsibility for energy stability. Here are some steps that can minimize risks.
1. Risk assessment and energy audit: consumption analysis, vulnerability zones, backup scenarios.
2. Local generation: installation of SES, biogas installations, gas -piston stations.
3. Energy storage systems: Investment in batteries to stabilize peak loads.
4. Attachment to the micro -networks: creation of “islands of sustainability” together with other enterprises or communities.
5. Scenario planning: preparation for work in the conditions of shutdowns, coordinated switching of systems, staffing, contracts with suppliers.
Balance of warning and action Talking about shutdowns is not a intimidation, but a responsible communication. Energy recovering, modernizing, preparing for winter, but the level of stability depends And from consumers. Experience shows that where the flexibility of the system, business proactivity and conscious consumption are combined, the system can withstand.
We cannot guarantee that this winter will always be light, but we can make the most so that even in the darkness it is possible to act confidently and responsibly. Therefore, warnings about shutdown are not just about power shortages. This is a new reality in which energy security is part of the country’s overall security.
The risks of delaying decisions are already clear. It’s time to act.
The column is a type of material that reflects only the author’s point of view. It does not claim the objectivity and comprehensive coverage of the topic in question. The point of view of the editorial board of “Economic Truth” and “Ukrainian Truth” may not coincide with the author’s view. The editorial board is not responsible for the accuracy and interpretation of the information provided and plays the role of the carrier exclusively.