“Citizens will not lose the purchasing power of savings, and under positive economic conditions they will even earn a little.”, – WRITE: www.pravda.com.ua
Over the last three months, we have seen a gradual slowdown in inflation: from 15.9% of R/p in May to 13.2% R/p in August. It is an important marker for the development of deposits in the conditions of storage of the discount rate, as well as rates on three -month deposit certificates, which is the basis for the formation of the yield of hryvnia deposits.
The yield of hryvnia deposits The average yield rates will be 13-14.5% per annum. The highest rates will be on deposits from six to nine months and annual deposits. It can be assumed that more than 70% of new deposits will be opened in September-October. About 15% will be deposits for three to six months, 5% for nine months, 7% for twelve months and more than a year.
Keeping base rates is not the only scenario. It cannot be ruled out that some banks will start the “loyalty season” by offering new depositors to current rates up to 1 century. n. This means that the maximum rates can reach 16.5-17% per annum.
In addition, additional preferences are possible: in the case of early termination of the contract or more favorable conditions for deposits, which provide for the possibility of replenishment or removal of accrued interest. In my opinion, the regulator will continue to support the development of short -term deposits, but we will see the activity of citizens in other segments. Much will depend on the marketing activity of banks, their stocks and bonuses for customers.
It is worth paying special attention to the ratio of inflation and the profitability of deposits. New depositors can count on passive profit within 3-4%. Deposits are not “golden mountains”. Citizens will not lose the purchasing power of savings, and under positive economic conditions they will be able to earn a little.
Deposit Development: incentives and fuses The development of hryvnia deposits in the fall will depend on a number of factors.
The first is the situation in the foreign exchange market. Stable courses in the dollar and the euro will stimulate interest in placement of funds on hryvnia deposits.
The second is the development of the economy and the level of inflation. If the trend continues to reduce inflation (expected that at the end of 2025, inflation will not exceed 10% in annual dimension), then further reduction of the discount rate can be expected.
The third is the security situation: military risks and energy stability. The lower the degree of uncertainty, the more citizens will behave confidently. The decision to open a deposit requires a person confidence in tomorrow. However, banks will make every effort to encourage people to trust the hryvnia and, accordingly, to the hryvnia deposits.
Deposit remains a tool for protecting savings. If positive forecasts come true, in 2025 the number of new depositors can increase by 5-7% compared to last year. It is a small but important step towards the financial stability of individual households and the banking system as a whole.
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