Since the appointment of Minister of Digital Transformation Mykhailo Fedorov, there has been a noticeable shift in Ukraine’s military strategy, emphasizing the use of drones in warfare. This has been accompanied by a growing demand for drone production, fueled by claims of significant enemy losses attributed to unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) and the establishment of specialized drone assault units within the Ukrainian Armed Forces.
However, this focus on drone technology raises concerns about potential neglect of traditional artillery, which remains a crucial component of military operations. Recent comments by journalist and military serviceman Yuriy Butusov highlighted a shortage of artillery shells, suggesting that a shift towards drones could weaken Ukraine’s ground forces.
Artillery has historically accounted for approximately 40% of enemy casualties, according to the General Staff. Two primary reasons underscore the importance of maintaining artillery capabilities:
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Artillery units, particularly self-propelled systems, exhibit greater mobility than drones, allowing for rapid deployment and engagement. The time from command to firing can be as short as three to five minutes, whereas a drone may take around 20 minutes to become operational, during which battlefield conditions may change.
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Artillery systems are less susceptible to environmental conditions. They can operate effectively in extreme cold without the risk of equipment failure, unlike drones, which may suffer from issues such as icing or visibility problems in poor weather.
In a recent meeting with journalists, Minister Fedorov stated that the Ministry of Defense would reassess artillery expenditures and base shell procurement on actual usage rather than projected needs. Nonetheless, challenges remain in the planning and execution of ammunition orders, particularly among domestic manufacturers.
Ukraine’s defense industry is divided into two main sectors: state-owned enterprises under Ukroboronprom, which have struggled to fulfill contracts, and private companies that have begun producing ammunition but are awaiting government contracts. The disparity between these sectors has raised concerns about quality and reliability.
For instance, a scandal involving substandard mines highlighted the risks associated with sourcing materials from foreign suppliers ill-suited for Ukraine’s conditions. Despite significant investments—over 50 billion hryvnias—into the Pavlograd Chemical Plant for domestic ammunition production, results have been slow to materialize.
On the other hand, private manufacturers have made strides in producing both 120mm and NATO-standard 155mm shells. Ukrainian Armored Vehicles announced plans to manufacture 155mm shells under a license from the Czech Republic’s Czechoslovak Group, aiming for an initial production capacity of 100,000 shells per year, with potential for expansion.
Additionally, the Danish model of financing, which involves direct investments from allies into the private sector, has facilitated increased production of self-propelled howitzers, with output projected to rise significantly by 2025. Denmark has pledged 130 million euros to support Ukraine’s defense industry, positioning Ukraine as a leader in Europe for such systems.
Despite these advancements, there remain concerns about the efficiency of ammunition procurement. Reports indicate instances where frontline units received as few as ten shells per week, even in active combat zones, due to ineffective planning by the government.
While there have been numerous unsuccessful contracts over the years, there is cautious optimism that the current leadership may improve the situation. It is crucial that the Ministry of Defense’s efforts to establish a data-driven approach to military needs do not overlook the importance of maintaining a diverse arsenal capable of responding to various battlefield conditions.
Ukraine's military strategy is increasingly focused on drone warfare, but concerns about artillery shortages highlight the need for a balanced approach. As the Ministry of Defense reassesses procurement strategies, maintaining diverse weaponry remains essential for effective operations.