“US President Donald Trump’s decision to stop Kiev’s military assistance will harm Ukraine’s combat capability, but first of all, it will affect the protection of Ukrainian cities from Russian missiles, which Ukraine is largely entrusted to the American Patriot systems, according to analysts of the Institute of War Study.”, – WRITE: www.pravda.com.ua
Source: ISW Report
Details: Analysts remind that the United States provided artillery ammunition, armored vehicles, towed howls, Patriot Air Defense Batteries, as well as missile systems of a long range of action such as HIMARS and ATACMS. Many of these weapons are complex systems that can only supply the United States.
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After stopping the weapon, the Ukrainian official said CNN that the US artillery shells may end by May or June 2025, but the Patriot missile missile may not be “in weeks”.
Literally isw: “Ukraine is largely entrusted to the American Patriot Air Defense Systems to protect against Russian rocket strokes in the rear regions of Ukraine. The shortage and, ultimately, the lack of” patriot “missiles” will probably have a serious impact on the security ballistic.
When the Patriot missiles will not be lacking in Ukraine, Kyiv will have to make difficult decisions on what settlements priority in defense of air defense. If all the “patriots” are over, the Ukrainian cities will become open to Russian ballistic missiles. ”
Details: At the same time, analysts emphasize that the front line in Ukraine is not threatened with the inevitable collapse due to the stopping of assistance, but the consequences of this pause in the supply of weapons from the United States will eventually become more acute.
Two anonymous US officials reported ABC News on March 3 that about 90% of weapons that the United States pledged to give Ukraine under the past packages of presidential powers to reduce weapons (PDA), have already arrived in Ukraine, including ammunition and anti -tank systems. And the remaining 10% of PDA weapons should still come to Ukraine by August 2025.
“Also, private contracts for the supply of weapons between Ukraine and US companies, many of which have already paid for, will most likely contribute to at least a small stream of weapons to Ukraine” at least in the coming years, “ISW writes.
Analysts remind that the US supplies about 30% of weapons to Ukraine, European partners are another 30%, and Ukraine itself supplies about 40% of domestic production.
“Ukraine will continue to fight with the weapon that it has now, with the weapons that European partners will continue to provide, as well as with the weapons produced by Ukraine itself. The pause in providing assistance by Trump administration will adversely affect Ukraine’s ability to defend itself and do not. He stresses isw.
At the same time, analysts are convinced that Russian troops are likely to take advantage of the expected weapons deficit in Ukraine if the suspension of military assistance from the United States continues, as it was during the preliminary suspension of deliveries in early 2024.
Currently, Russian troops carry out active offensive operations in Kharkiv, Lugansk and Donetsk regions, have recently intensified efforts in the event of the Zaporozhye region and continue to attempt to force the Dnieper River in the Kherson region, analysts say.
“Russian troops are likely to try to use a pause in providing assistance from the United States to achieve further success in the east and south of Ukraine in order to substantiate their territorial claims to the entire territory of Lugansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhzhya and Kherson regions,” ISW said.