“Over the past two months, financial investors have come across a new trading strategy, which is based on a simple rule – TACO (Trump Always Chickens Out), which means “Trump always takes fear.” The US President threatens to impose huge import tariffs on both friends and enemies, or resign the head of the federal reserve system, but only retreats when the market whip imposes his uncompromising discipline.”, – WRITE: www.pravda.com.ua
The US President threatens to impose huge import tariffs on both friends and enemies, or resign the head of the federal reserve system, but only retreats when the market whip imposes his uncompromising discipline. Then he returns to tariffs to retreat again.
This model goes beyond the economy. In fact, it is the defining feature of Donald Trump’s presidency. But Trump is not just a coward. He is a weak strongman, and the opponents of America may understand it better than most Americans.
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Many Americans are afraid of Trump, so they think others should. However, no one outside America before Trump has no such fear.
America’s friends are afraid of Pali – the one who destroys what others created. And the enemies of America congratulate those destruction caused by Trump and the government of government efficiency Ilon Mask – Doge.
When Musk recently resigned, the leading Kremlin ideologist Alexander Dugin mourned his departure: “Doge has done a great service all over the world by eliminating USAID, Ministry of Health and Ministry of Education”.
Trump is strong in a relative sense; After it destroys the institution, only its presence remains. But it is weak because, having destroyed the government agencies that controlled money, weapons and intelligence, the United States does not have real tools to deal with the rest of the world.
Trump plays a strong man on television, and he is a talented actor. But his strength is exclusively in humility of the audience. His game awakens the dream of passivity: Trump will correct everything.
Of course, Trump’s charisma is a kind of power. But it cannot be applied to any problem, and it does not work outside the United States.
Trump’s supporters may think that America does not need friends because she can intimidate her enemies without assistance. But we already know that Trump cannot force Canada or Mexico – not to mention China, Iran or Russia – to do his will.
It only works at home. For years, Trump has used rallies and social networks to inspire random manifestations of violence against his internal opponents. This led to the self -purification of the Republican Party and formed an obedient cohort of staff in Congress.
Trump people perceive him as a strong figure, but their experience is their own weakness. And their weakness cannot turn into the rest of the world by waving the magic wand.
Capital letters and exclamation marks in posts on social networks, which in recent months, Trump directed to Russian President Vladimir Putin, demanding that he end the war in Ukraine, did not affect Putin’s emotional state in any way, but on Russian politics and rally. And incitement to stochastic violence (violence with a probabilistic nature – ed.) Does not work for foreign leaders. No one in Irkutsk is going to threaten or hurt Putin because Trump has written something on the Internet.
It could be generous and interpreting the post of Trump, where he threatens sanctions as a political act. However, words only matter when policy exists, or at least the ability to formulate it.
But in order for policy to exist, there must be institutions equipped with competent people. And the first political act of Trump was the release of those who had the competence to develop and implement policies. For example, many people who, at least knew about Ukraine, just disappeared from the ranks of its administration.
Trump’s desperate attempts to make Russia’s concessions on Ukrainian sovereignty came to their place – without Ukraine and without any allies. It didn’t work. His position was so weak that Putin, of course, decided that he could get more, and therefore escalated Russian aggression in Ukraine. Trump is a sheep in wolf skin, and wolves hear a difference.
This is obvious, but it is necessary to say clearly: no one in Moscow considers Trump strong. Even if he wanted, Trump cannot really threaten Russia without functioning institutions and competent civil servants. For example, to force sanctions to work, he will need to work more people, not less. In addition, foreign countries should believe that the Ministry of Finance is not just a toy of the American billionaire. Unfortunately, their special services read newspapers.
Americans can ignore the fact that the state capacity needed to combat opponents has been extorted and/or entrusted to people who are only able to be absolutely faithful to Trump. But the destruction of US authorities creates a very simple structure of incentives for America’s enemies.
The Russians hoped that Trump would return to the White House precisely because, in their opinion, it weakens the United States. Now, observing how it destroys the CIA and the FBI, putting the intelligence and federal law enforcement agencies such as Tulsi Gabbard, Kash Pavel and Pem Bondi, they can only think that time is playing on their side.
That is why Putin ignored Trump’s ceasefire in Ukraine, which is why Russia will use any ceasefire that can happen to prepare for the next invasion. Putin is unjustifiably convinced that Trump’s castrated Trump will not be able to answer that Europeans will be distracted, and it will be harder for Ukrainians to mobilize again after the war years.
What is right for Russia is right for China. The weak strongman helps the People’s Republic. In fact, Trump was not on the side of China. Although the whole generation of Americans feared that China would surpass the United States in economic and military terms, the trends of recent years have not been so clear or even changed to opposite. However, now that Trump has taken a course to destroy America’s state potential, China can simply take what he would have to fight for.
In the short term, the Wall Street can benefit from TASO trade, but a weak strongman brings only losses. Although Trump’s supporters can be tempted and believe that he did America with titanium among nations, in fact everything is the opposite.
As a strongman Trump destroys the norms, laws and alliances that restrained the war. Like a slack – he invites the war.
Timothy Snyder – Professor of History at the University of Toronto, author of the book “On Freedom” (Penguin, 2024)
Copyright: Project Syndicate, 2025
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