“ISW believes that Putin uses a unilateral ceasefire to achieve information and military superiority in Ukraine”, – WRITE: www.radiosvoboda.org
According to the ISW report, the Kremlin is preparing to accept a considerable number of foreign high -ranking officials, including the countries of the former Soviet Union, Latin America, Asia and Africa, at the celebration of Victory Day in Russia, and Putin probably seeks to avoid inconveniences through Ukrainian blows during these celebrations.
Analysts have previously noted that the termination of blows on energy infrastructure and the Easter armistice emphasized the need for the details of any future ceasefire or peace agreement to be publicly available, officially agreed in advance by all parties and included reliable monitoring mechanisms.
“Putin’s ceasefire on Victory Day does not provide for any additional monitoring mechanisms, and Russian sources are likely to use the absence of such mechanisms in order to fill the information space again with unjustified statements about violation of the ceasefire from Ukraine,” the report said.
ISW states that Russian officials seem to be not interested in creating effective monitoring mechanisms or a common public basis for these trucers, probably because it is advantageous to use vague and fuzzy truce conditions against Ukraine in its favor.
According to the Institute of War, Putin uses a unilateral ceasefire to achieve information and military advantages in Ukraine, it seems to be a conjunctural announcement of ceasefire during the great religious and military holidays to force Ukraine to agree on a truce or to risk a notable.
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The unilateral advertisement of the truce also allows Putin to distract from his abandonment of the US-Ukrainian proposal for a 30-day overall cease ceasefire in March 2025 and maintain the illusion that he is interested in peace negotiations, while maintaining full control over the conditions and terms of any ceasefire.
Analysts also suggest that Putin is probably viewing a truce on Victory Day as an opportunity for Russian troops to relax before future combat operations at the front in Ukraine, as well as a way to guarantee that Ukraine will not make any significant blows from a great range in Russia during the celebration of Victory Day.
Putin probably does not consider the truce for Victory Day as a serious step on the way to a long peace in Ukraine, added to ISW.
Read also: “Why wait until May 8?” – The Foreign Ministry reacted to the Russian Federation’s statement about the truce
On April 28, the Kremlin said that Russian President Vladimir Putin declared a truce on the “Days of the 80th Anniversary of Victory”-May 8-10. At the same time, Moscow declared its readiness for peace talks “without prior conditions aimed at eliminating the root causes of the Ukrainian crisis, constructive interaction with international partners.”
But Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov says that the condition of peaceful settlement is the international recognition of Crimea, Sevastopol, Donetsk, Lugansk, Kherson and Zaporizhzhya regions in Russian.
On April 19, the Kremlin suddenly extended the statement of Russian President Vladimir Putin, who announced the Easter Armistice. However, Ukraine and Russia exchanged accusations of violation.