“The international community recognizes that the overthrow of the Bashar al-Assad dictatorship in Syria was a major strategic defeat for Russia. Many international observers say that another loser from regime change in Syria is Iran, while the main winners are Turkey and Israel.”, — write: www.pravda.com.ua
The international community recognizes that the overthrow of the Bashar al-Assad dictatorship in Syria was a major strategic defeat for Russia. Many international observers say that another loser from regime change in Syria is Iran, while the main winners are Turkey and Israel. But I think that Ukraine is also among the winners.
We well remember that without the powerful support of Russia, the Assad dictatorship would have been overthrown in 2015. Only the strong military support of Russia kept Bashar Assad in power for another 9 years.
If the Ukrainian army had not inflicted such heavy losses on the Russian army, Putin would have continued to support the rule of Bashar al-Assad, and with it his military presence in such an important region as the Mediterranean Sea and the Middle East. The Syrian armed opposition was able to defeat Bashar Assad precisely because the Ukrainian army seriously weakened the Russian army.
In the war with Ukraine, Russia lost more than 700,000 soldiers (killed and seriously wounded), exhausted its reserves of weapons and ammunition, so it could not direct military forces to protect the region, which has a very serious strategic importance, and in fact lost its valuable ally, and together with him and his interests in a large region. Having largely exhausted its military potential in the unjust war with Ukraine, Russia was unable to do anything to change the situation in Syria.
On the other hand, the democratic states that are allies of Ukraine have also seen that Russia has weakened even more than they could have imagined. There is no need to be afraid of it and scare each other with it.
I believe that Western leaders and public figures who call on Ukraine to make territorial concessions in order to achieve peace with Russia should also adjust their position.
Now Russia is weakened to such an extent that it cannot protect its allies, especially when the country is on the threshold of the most severe socio-economic crisis. Why should the aggressor be given a break, why should Ukraine, which has the potential to win, be forced to make concessions? Wouldn’t it be more logical and rational to do the exact opposite: defeat the aggressor who defies international law by increasing armaments and financial support for Ukraine, and teach a lesson to all potential aggressors?
Yes, Russia has weakened so much that it cannot protect even its most valuable ally. But Russia is not enough to accept its defeat. That is why it continues its attacks on the territory of Ukraine even at the cost of losing its last resources.
Russia is preparing for a strategic revenge in the South Caucasus, while continuing its attacks in eastern Ukraine. In this way, it tries to overcome the disappointment and despair caused by the loss of the Middle East.
Azerbaijan’s President Aliyev and Georgia’s de facto leader Ivanishvili are also ready to increase Russia’s influence in the South Caucasus to protect their authoritarian rule.
In the last two years, Ilham Aliyev has carried out systematic repression against civil society, the free press and the opposition, which advocates the integration of Azerbaijan into the West. There are already 331 political prisoners in the prisons of Azerbaijan. Having announced the integration of Azerbaijan into the European Union as its program goal, the People’s Front Party of Azerbaijan was completely deprived of normal political activity. At the same time, Ilham Aliyev strengthened his alliance with Putin’s Russia and his anti-Western rhetoric.
Russia has long been trying to overthrow Pashinyan’s government in Armenia and stop the process of Armenia’s integration into Europe. Despite all this, the most important events in terms of the fate of the South Caucasus region are currently taking place in Georgia. Georgia is our neighbor, which has made significant progress in the direction of democratization and European integration after the Rose Revolution of 2003.
Unfortunately, the “Georgian Dream”, which has been in power in Georgia in recent years, has strengthened authoritarian tendencies, rigged elections and intensified anti-Western rhetoric. In the end, the Georgian government even abandoned the policy of integration into the European Union. This was a setback for Russia, which is making plans for revenge in the region. Currently, Russia is trying with all its might to defeat supporters of democracy and European integration in Georgia.
The brave Georgian people have been demonstrating day and night for the 19th day in Tbilisi and other major cities of Georgia, demanding their rights. He demands free elections and integration into the European Union in accordance with the Constitution of Georgia. However, it should be taken into account that authoritarian regimes that subordinate the coercive apparatus of the state to their interests can physically defeat peaceful political forces by using hard force. Therefore, all the democratic forces of the world, including the USA and the EU, should strengthen their support for the real Georgian dream, the restoration of Georgia’s democracy and its integration into the European Union.
Do not forget that Ukraine and Georgia are the epicenter of the struggle of world democratic forces against international authoritarianism led by Russia. Taking up arms, the people of Ukraine defend their country and land from occupation, and also deal a devastating blow to international authoritarianism and defend freedom around the world. The brave Georgian people are now continuing the same work on the streets of Tbilisi through political means.
All the supporters of freedom in the world should give stronger support to these two brave peoples. Georgia’s victory in this difficult struggle will bring very positive results for the South Caucasus, and Ukraine’s victory for the whole world.
Ali Karimli is the chairman of the People’s Front Party of Azerbaijan (PNFA), the largest opposition party in the country. PNFA is the main force promoting the integration of Azerbaijan into the European Union. The government of Azerbaijan is carrying out repressions against the PNFA. Up to 50 PNFA activists live as political prisoners.
Since 2005, Ali Karimli has been banned from traveling abroad, he has not been issued a passport, despite the fact that even the European Court of Human Rights found this ban illegal. All his internal communications within the country are also illegally restricted. For more than four years, he has had no access to the Internet and mobile communication.