“The best option, albeit a bloody one.” We have the only opportunity to get sufficient support from Trump: what should Ukraine do – analyst

— Politico writes that the US Republican Party believes that Trump can become the best option for Ukraine. He said that the Ukrainians should make sure that Trump does not see them as an obstacle to peace and that they should not be the first to tell him “no” in any of his initiatives, even when some stupid ideas are thrown around. Kyiv needs the Russians to keep talking to Trump “no”, so that the Ukrainians look like a reasonable party. Then Trump will come to the conclusion that the only way to bring the Russians to the negotiating table is to help the Ukrainians, this publication says. What do you think about such advice to Ukraine?

– This is a very valid opinion. In my opinion, the only possibility for us to get from Trump, if not full, then at least sufficient support for Ukraine and sufficient leverage on the Russian Federation, is to make the Russians a non-negotiating party.

And maybe here it is even worth going a little further. Let me remind you that it is not even what is offered to him that is important to Donald Trump, but how he is treated. Therefore, if we can also demonstrate that [російський диктатор] Vladimir Putin completely ignores the advice of Donald Trump, or his wishes, so it will lead to a very positive effect for us, if Trump literally personally takes offense at Putin.

— Russian propaganda is trying to insult him. In particular, Trump’s wife is shown in a negative light.

– Honestly, I don’t really understand what the idea of ​​the Russians is. It depends on what they want to achieve, how they evaluate their strengths.

There are two options here. The first option: let’s imagine that the Russians still want to reach some kind of truce. It is clear that on their terms, and their terms are not very adequate, to put it mildly. Their smallest condition: they want Ukraine to fully recognize the loss of four oblasts, plus the Autonomous Republic of Crimea, and recognize them as territories of the Russian Federation. Inadequate? Inadequate. But this, let’s be honest, is one of the least categorical of their conditions.

Let’s imagine if they move in this direction. They say to us: we need it done exactly as we said. For this, of course, Ukraine needs to make changes to the Constitution, and the United States needs to lose a huge part of its international reputation for this.

It is one thing when you simply leave Afghanistan in 2021 and leave the country to fend for itself, even though it is supposed to be protected. So here you are not just leaving the country to its own devices, you are actually helping to change the borders. This is completely inadequate, even I think Donald Trump is not so incapable of leaving. This is the first option in which the Russians get nothing.

There is a second option, in which it is unlikely that it will be possible to reach any concrete agreements with Russia. This is when they will not want to come out at all, at least now, to some kind of truce, they will just continue to fight. And this option, in my opinion, is more bloody, but on the other hand, in the context of such a diplomatic story with Trump, it is better for us.

I will explain why. If the Russians will at least pretend that they are negotiating, then for Trump, who is not very immersed in our context, it will look like they are not bad either, they also want to come to an agreement. If they will reject absolutely all possibilities of agreement, will not even present their terms, then it will be even easier for us to prove to Donald Trump that we are negotiable, and the Russians are non-negotiable.

— More than a week has passed since Trump’s victory, and so far there have been no specifics from him regarding the plan for Ukraine and the end of the war. Do you see any outlines and contours of Trump’s plan?

— I think that Trump’s classic scheme of semi-official diplomacy will work here. There will be a special representative for Ukraine, some say that it is Mr [Роберт] O’Brien. I wouldn’t be so categorical yet, but it is possible that it could be him. In any case, there will be a certain special representative on this issue in the administration, who will obviously go to the negotiations.

Will Trump want, immediately after taking office, to symbolically emphasize that he is doing something, to bring the Ukrainian and Russian sides to the negotiating table – not necessarily at the level of presidents, but just representatives? I don’t think he will succeed. Perhaps he will have such a desire, but I do not think that he will immediately be able to really convene a certain table for negotiations. I’ll be surprised if that happens.

Another thing is that he can, using his special representative, coordinate positions with Ukraine and Russia.

It is important to understand one thing here. The coordination of positions will most likely not take place on equal terms, but Trump will bring some idea… We have already heard, as for Trump, a lot of specifics: it is about creating buffer zones, about stopping hostilities in the positions where the troops are now, about postponing legal, let’s say, issues because they don’t know what to do with legal issues. It seems to me that this is the worst situation from the point of view of international law. If Trump really wants to implement all this, how will it all be formalized. This can create a lot of collisions, etc excesses and, I would even say, resentments. [Буде] the desire of one or another side, based on the unfairness of the agreements, to resume hostilities again.

So he will appoint a special representative, the special representative will travel, obviously, he will plant Trump’s ideas about the demarcation line, about the ceasefire. Maybe it’s really conditional “Minsk-3″, as we like to say it. Perhaps.

Again, further – the reaction of our side, the reaction of the Russian side. It seems to me that none of the parties in reality will want to implement it, let’s be honest. At least in the form in which Trump will present it. But it’s a matter of pretending.

It’s my sincere belief that if we can, for example, be clever enough to pretend that “yes, indeed, we’re up for it, let’s just make some tweaks and adjustments, but in general we welcome the efforts of Donald Trump and so on…”, here this will open a window of opportunity for us to make adjustments to the plan Donald Trump.

— In this context, is it possible to say that President Volodymyr Zelenskyi has already started making this appearance? He praised Trump’s approach and vision through the concept of “peace through strength” in Budapest. It is obvious that Volodymyr Zelensky meant to use force against Russia. And does Trump understand him correctly?

— I think Trump likes anything written “power”, and with a capslock. I would even remind you about how Volodymyr Zelensky congratulated Donald Trump on his election. This is on the official page of the President of Ukraine [було написано]:[вражаюча] victory.

In my opinion, this is a very good marker. Yes, we can say that we already do this look. And here two main aspects are important. I think this is generally the leitmotif of this story – the observance of two main aspects. The first aspect is that we show Donald Trump that yes, we are ready to cooperate, we are very glad that you are helping us with this. And the second aspect is that we show that the Russians are not ready for this. This, let’s say, is the easiest in this story and almost the only thing we can do.