Peace in exchange for space: how Trump can force Putin to stop the war

Russia has ambitions to develop its space program, but its capabilities are significantly limited by sanctions and the war in Ukraine. Donald Trump may use this as a chance for negotiations, offering Putin participation in the international space program in exchange for peace.

The Hill writes about it, reports UNN.

Details

Russia is planning to build a new orbital station to replace its segment on the International Space Station when it retires around 2030. In addition, Moscow is cooperating with China in the framework of the project to create a lunar base, which, according to plans, will have a nuclear reactor to provide energy.

As noted in a recent study by the Foreign Policy Research Institute, the implementation of these Russian plans is questionable.

Scientists identify a number of factors that make the stable development of the Russian space industry practically impossible. Among them are international sanctions, an embargo on the supply of high-tech industrial equipment, a shortage of qualified personnel, limited financial resources that are scattered among too many projects, a breakdown in space cooperation with Western countries (with the exception of work on the ISS), as well as the general inefficiency of the Russian space industry .

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According to researchers, the current decline of the Russian space program began back in 2014, when Putin annexed Crimea, and after a full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, the situation only worsened.

However, in reality, the problems of Russian cosmonautics reach even deeper roots. After the collapse of the USSR, Russia was never able to regain its former power in space. Some believe that the beginning of the decline can be traced back to 1966 – after the death of Serhii Korolev, the legendary designer of the Soviet space program, who, ironically, was Ukrainian. His death due to a botched operation was one of the factors that caused the USSR to lose the race to land on the moon in 1969.

Another telling sign of stagnation was the recent achievement of the Russians: they launched the 2,000th missile of the R-7 family. This carrier was created under Korolev and became the first Soviet intercontinental ballistic missile. It was he who put the first artificial Earth satellite into orbit in 1957 and Yuri Gagarin in 1961. Since then, Russia has hardly changed the basic design and continues to use its variations.

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Meanwhile, the US is actively developing its own space projects. Companies like SpaceX and Rocket Lab have made launches more affordable, and Blue Origin is testing a new heavy rocket, the New Glenn. SpaceX’s super-heavy Starship rocket is also in development.

Russia had a chance to regain some of its former glory through cooperation with NASA. Sharing the ISS was beneficial for both sides: the US gained an argument for funding the station, and the Russians were able to keep their astronauts in space after the Mir station was closed.

However, Moscow chose a different path. Instead of participating in the ambitious American Artemis program, which involves the return of men to the moon and potential flights to Mars, Putin decided to invest resources in the war against Ukraine. As a result, Moscow spends billions of dollars on military operations, not on the development of science and technology.

In addition, many talented engineers and scientists are fleeing Russia, fearing mobilization and repression. Sanctions are likely to only intensify following Donald Trump’s possible return to the White House, further hitting Russia’s tech sector.

If Trump really intends to end the war in Ukraine, he can use the space program as a bargaining chip. One possible option is to offer Putin participation in the Artemis program in exchange for an end to the war.

Trump could remind the Kremlin that Russia was able to remain a space power only thanks to cooperation with the West. Without US support, it risks losing competitiveness in space completely. If Moscow agrees to peace, it will gain access to American technology, the ability to send its own astronauts to the moon, and cooperation with companies such as SpaceX.

Another condition would be the signing of the Artemis Accords – an international agreement that defines the principles of peaceful space exploration and its commercial use. In this case, Russia would be forced to break off cooperation with China, which would leave Beijing in space isolation.

Thus, Putin would be faced with a clear choice: war and the further decline of the economy, technology and the space industry, or peace and prosperity thanks to renewed cooperation with the West.

At the same time, it is not known whether Moscow will agree to this agreement. However, given the current crisis in the Russian space industry, this scenario looks much more realistic than Russia’s attempts to independently implement its space plans.

We will remind

NASA’s Parker Solar Probe has successfully completed a mission near the Sun without human intervention. Scientists are discussing the possibility of completely replacing astronauts with robots and AI in future space exploration.