Oil exports from the Russian Federation fell by 11%: what is happening to the “shadow fleet”?

Due to maintenance at one of the main export terminals of the Russian Federation, shipments of Russian oil by sea have fallen by about 11% since October 2024. But there are also other factors among the reasons for the fall.

Transfers UNN with reference to Bloomberg.

Seaborne exports of crude oil from Russia have fallen by about 11% since October 2024. The average for the past four weeks was 3.06 million barrels per day, down from a recent peak of 3.46 million barrels per day two months ago. The reason for the indicated level of decline, which Bloomberg draws attention to in the first place, is maintenance work at one of the main export terminals of the Russian Federation.

But it is also important to note something else:

The drop comes as Western powers step up pressure on a shadow fleet of tankers created by Russia to keep oil flowing;

In addition: the volumes of processing at oil refineries reached the highest weekly indicator since mid-August. This could potentially reduce the amount of oil available for export.

The pressure on Russia to meet the OPEC+ production target, which was extended until the end of March, is also increasing. earlier, OPEC+ postponed plans to increase production.

European countries have tightened sanctions on ships carrying Moscow oil, and the United States is weighing new, tougher measures in the weeks before Donald Trump returns to the White House.

Important exposure

Ukraine has identified 238 tankers that it believes are part of the shadow fleet. Currently, it is planned to introduce further sanctions against the relevant carriers.

Almost two-thirds of the tankers sanctioned by Western countries for participating in the Russian oil trade are idle, many of them gathering near Russian ports.

Some data on Russian oil

At the end of May, Russia canceled its export targets, deciding to limit production, as did its partners in the OPEC+ group of oil producers. The country’s production target is set at 8.978 million barrels per day by the end of March.

moscow also pledged to further cut output in October and November 2024 and then again between March and September 2025

Oil revenues of the Russian Federation decreased; average weekly prices for the main Russian oil flows moved in different directions. In the week to December 15, the gross value of Russian shipments fell by about $70 million to $1.36 billion.

Streams by directions

Asia

Observed supplies to consumers in Asia, including those with no final destination, rose to 2.77 million bpd in the four weeks to December 15.

About 1.35 million barrels of crude oil per day were loaded onto tankers bound for China.

India’s figures are likely to increase as ports of discharge become clear for vessels that currently do not specify final destinations. Most of the ships heading from the western ports of Russia through the Suez Canal end up in this South Asian country.

The equivalent of about 200,000 barrels per day is on ships calling at Port Said or Suez in Egypt.

The “other unknowns”, which amounted to about 30,000 barrels per day in the four weeks to December 15, are tankers with no clear destination.

Europe and Turkey

Russian seaborne exports of crude oil to European countries have stopped, and shipments to Bulgaria stopped at the end of last year. Russia also lost about 500,000 barrels per day of pipeline exports to Poland and Germany in early 2023.

Turkey is now the only short-haul market for supplies from Russia’s western ports, but flows there fell to about 300,000 bpd in the 28 days to Dec. 15, the lowest in seven weeks.

The EU is preparing the 15th package of sanctions: what awaits the “shadow fleet” of the Russian FederationDecember 13 2024, 21:42 • 14214 views