A recent analysis from the Sahaidachnyi Security Center introduces a new framework for Ukraine’s defense strategy against Russian aggression. This approach emphasizes a dual vector model comprising elimination and deterrence to effectively counter the ongoing threat.
The elimination vector focuses on identifying and exploiting Russia’s critical vulnerabilities to create irreversible damage at a strategic level. The aim is not merely to weaken the enemy but to achieve long-term neutralization of its military capabilities and potentially dismantle its political regime. This strategy diverges from traditional methods that rely on periodic strikes against recoverable infrastructure, instead advocating for a comprehensive impact on key sectors of Russia’s economy and military.
Key components of this elimination strategy include:
- Developing analytical capabilities to identify and evaluate vulnerabilities within Russia.
- Enhancing deep strike capabilities with advanced technologies to ensure a pervasive impact on Russian assets.
- Scaling special operations and cognitive warfare efforts within enemy territory.
In tandem with elimination efforts, the deterrence vector is redefined. Rather than focusing solely on holding ground at all costs, the goal shifts to maintaining a minimally sufficient deterrent posture while buying time to achieve elimination objectives. This means prioritizing the integrity of defensive perimeters and the sustainability of Ukrainian forces.
The strategic objective is to stabilize the frontline and create conditions where Russian losses will consistently outpace its mobilization capacity. However, this approach must account for two critical risks:
- The possibility of Russia adopting remote strike tactics without direct assaults, relying heavily on artillery and drones.
- The potential for Russia to declare a general mobilization.
Currently, Russia faces a manpower shortage, which is exacerbated by its limited operational framework. A full mobilization could significantly increase its ground forces, making it essential for Ukraine’s strategy to include measures to enhance the survivability of its troops and expand its operational reach.
In the airspace, the deterrence strategy must involve a thorough analysis of the types of aerial threats faced, focusing on the damage they can inflict and their potential for evolution. The analysis suggests that drones, particularly those in the Shahed class, pose a significant threat due to their low cost and high damage potential. Therefore, strengthening anti-drone capabilities becomes a priority.
Moreover, while addressing missile threats, particularly ballistic ones, remains a challenge, Ukraine must continue to seek additional PAC-3 systems while developing its own defense technologies. This includes a long-term initiative to relocate critical assets underground to safeguard them against potential strikes.
Ultimately, the path to victory lies not in maintaining a static front or accepting compromised ceasefires that reward aggression, but in eliminating the source of the threat. Success will depend on a simultaneous focus on both deterrence and elimination, recognizing that neither can function effectively in isolation.
Lesya Ogryzko
A new defense strategy proposed by the Sahaidachnyi Security Center highlights a dual approach for Ukraine, combining elimination of Russian military capabilities with a redefined deterrence strategy. This model aims to create irreversible damage to Russia while ensuring the sustainability of Ukrainian defenses.