Lithuanian intelligence has indicated that Russia is expanding its military units along the NATO border, potentially preparing them for future conflicts with the Alliance. This assessment was detailed in the agency’s annual security threat report, which was reported by European Truth, citing Reuters.
The report highlights that brigades along the NATO border are being upgraded to divisions, with new military formations being established. Additionally, military infrastructure is reportedly being developed in the Kaliningrad region, part of the Leningrad military district.
According to the intelligence assessment, many of the newly formed Russian military units are not fully staffed and are being created gradually due to shortages in personnel, military equipment, and infrastructure. These units and their designated equipment are frequently deployed to participate in combat operations in Ukraine rather than remaining at their permanent bases.
The report suggests that if sanctions against Russia are lifted, the country could be prepared for a “large-scale military conflict” with NATO within six years. It states that Russia is likely to build an army that is 30-50% larger than it had prior to the war, and that this force will be relatively modern. Strategic reserves of weapons and ammunition are expected to be fully replenished, positioning Russia for conventional military conflict with NATO.
The primary objectives for Russia, as outlined in the report, include shifting the balance of power in Europe in its favor and achieving complete control over Ukraine. The Russian military industry has been expanded with assistance from China, allowing Moscow to reduce its reliance on Western technologies. The surplus of weaponry following the conflict is anticipated to have implications for global security.
The report also references package explosions in 2024, which Lithuanian officials have attributed to Russian military intelligence.
While Lithuania’s intelligence agency believes that Russia’s focus on the war in Ukraine limits its ability to pose a direct military threat to Lithuania and other NATO countries, recent assessments from Estonian intelligence suggest that Russia does not plan to initiate military attacks against any NATO state this year or next. However, it will continue to rebuild its armed forces, wary of European rearmament.
In late February, Polish Foreign Minister Radoslaw Sikorski warned that any aggression from Russia towards countries on NATO’s eastern flank would come at a high cost to those nations.
Lithuanian intelligence has reported on the expansion of Russian military units near NATO borders, indicating preparations for potential future conflicts. While current military threats are limited due to Russia's focus on Ukraine, the report warns of significant military growth in the coming years.
Source: European Truth