“The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) points out that the Russian Ministry of Defense is paying abnormally much attention to the capture of Velika Novosilka, which may indicate that the Federation in this way wants to shape the West’s perception of the situation on the battlefield and weaken international support for Ukraine.”, — write: www.pravda.com.ua
The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) points out that the Russian Ministry of Defense is paying abnormally much attention to the capture of Velika Novosilka, which may indicate that the Federation in this way wants to shape the West’s perception of the situation on the battlefield and weaken international support for Ukraine.
Source: ISW
Details: Analysts indicate that Russian troops have made further advances within Velika Novosilka amid official Russian claims that the occupiers captured the entire settlement on January 26.
Geolocation footage released on January 26 indicates that Russian troops have advanced north along Tsentralnaya Street in the north of Velika Novosilka.
Some Russian sources, including the Russian Ministry of Defense, claimed on January 26 that Russian forces had fully captured Velika Novosilka, while other Russian sources claimed that Russian forces had captured most of the settlement.
Some Russian bloggers claimed that Russian forces were still clearing the village of Ukrainian forces, including the northern part, and that Ukrainian forces were still counterattacking in the area.
Literally ISW: “However, based on geolocation data, ISW believes that Russian forces occupy 89 percent of the village.”
“The Ministry of Defense of Russia is paying an abnormal amount of attention to the capture of Velika Novosilka by Russian troops, which is most likely part of an informational effort aimed at shaping the West’s perception of the situation on the battlefield in Ukraine and weakening international support for Ukraine.”
Details: Experts note that Russian advances in the west of the Donetsk region continue to be gradual and far below the pace that is normal for modern mechanized warfare.
In addition, the report said, it remains unclear whether Russian forces will be able to quickly advance beyond Velika Novosilka, as it is unclear how much combat power elements of the Russian military’s eastern military district still retain after months of continuous offensive operations.
Literally ISW: “Velika Novosilka is located next to several rivers, which will probably complicate and hinder the further tactical advance of Russian troops in this area.
Russian forces have had problems with river crossings … which will likely complicate the ability of Russian forces to use the capture of Velika Novosilka to make an operationally significant advance into the western part of Donetsk Oblast.”
Details: Experts suggest that the capture and clearing of Velika Novosilka will probably provide the Russian military command with opportunities and become a reference point for making a decision on the redeployment of units of the Eastern Military District (SVO) of Russia from the Velika Novosilka area to other priority operational areas.
Literally ISW: “Any redeployment of parts of the district (RF troops – ed.) from the Velika Novosilka region in the coming weeks will indicate priority operational areas for Russia’s offensive operations in the spring and summer of 2025.”
“The capture of Velika Novosilka will be a decision point for the Russian military command, during which the Russian military command can implement several options for action.”
Details: The Russian military command may decide to leave SVO units in the west of Donetsk region and continue advancing to the administrative border of Donetsk and Dnipropetrovsk regions, which runs north and west of Velika Novosilka.
According to analysts, such a decision may indicate that the Russian military prefers to advance to the administrative border as soon as possible, rather than in other directions in the Donetsk region or in other front-line areas.
The review adds: it remains unclear how combat-ready units remain after more than six months of intensive operations.
The Russian military command may also leave some SVO units in the Velikay Novosilka area to continue limited attacks and pin down Ukrainian forces in the area, but redeploy the main part of the district’s troops to another part of the front.
Literally ISW: “Russian troops are currently intensifying offensive operations in the Kupyan, Boriv, Chasiv-Yar, Toretsk, and Pokrovsky directions, and also continue to work on the elimination of the remaining Ukrainian fortifications in the Kurakhiv direction and in the Kursk region.”
ISW key findings for January 26:
- The troops of the Russian Federation made a further advance within Velika Novosilka against the background of official Russian statements that on January 26, the occupiers captured the entire settlement.
- The Ministry of Defense of Russia pays an abnormal amount of attention to claims about the capture of Velika Novosilka, which is most likely part of an informational effort aimed at shaping the West’s perception of the situation on the battlefield in Ukraine and weakening international support for Ukraine.
- The capture and clearing of Velika Novosilka is likely to provide an opportunity for the Russian military command to decide on the redeployment of parts of the Eastern Military District (SVO) of Russia from the Velika Novosilka area to other priority operational areas. Any redeployment of SVO units from the Velika Novosilka area in the coming weeks will indicate priority operational areas for Russia’s offensive operations in the spring and summer of 2025.
- Russian troops are ready to capture Toretsk in the coming days, and the redeployment of SVO elements to strengthen the Russian group in the Toretsk direction will indicate Russia’s new priority efforts to resume attacks in the direction of Kostiantynivka.
- On the night of January 25-26, Ukrainian troops struck the Ryazan Oil Refinery again.
- Ukrainian troops advanced in the Kursk region and regained positions in Toretsk.
- Russian troops advanced near Borova, Pokrovsk and Kurakhovo.
- On January 25, Russian bloggers criticized the Russian government for not prioritizing the recruitment and training of the next generation of Russian officers.