Is it possible to reach a full ceasefire by April 20 and how the Russian Federation undermines these efforts – analysis isw

This opinion was expressed by analysts of the Institute of War Study in its report on March 31.

They recalled US President Donald Trump’s statement that outlined unspecified in terms “Psychological deadline, to which Russia should agree to a complete overall ceasefire. The ISW stated that this statement was heard against the backdrop of Russia’s attempts to use the idea of ​​ceasefire in the Black Sea to block efforts to further complete ceasefire and achieve additional concessions from the West. At the same time, Finnish President Alexander Stubb stated on March 30 that he suggested Trump’s date on April 20 as a potential deadline for “Complete ceasefire without any conditions. ”While meeting with the US President on March 29.

However, as predicted in ISW, Russia is unlikely to agree to a full and unconditional ceasefire within three weeks [до 20 квітня], Considering that the Russian Federation had already demanded from the West a weakening of sanctions as a preliminary condition even for a temporary cease to cease fire in the Black Sea. On March 25, the Kremlin stated that it would not comply with the ceasefire in the Black Sea until the United States has lifted sanctions from the Russian State Russian State Bank and other financial organizations involved in Russian food and fertilizers. On March 28, Bloomberg reported that Russia also requires the European Union to restore Rosselhozbank’s connection to the International Banking Swift Banking System as a prerequisite for the implementation of arrangements for ceasefire in the Black Sea. According to this information, Moscow sees this step as a test for whether the United States is ready to fulfill the requirements of Russia and push European partners to weaken sanctions.

On March 11, the United States and Ukraine offered the idea of ​​a complete 30-day ceasefire. Since then, the ways of implementing such a regime, in particular in the temporary cessation of strikes on energy infrastructure and in the Black Sea, have been discussed – which indicates that the ceasefire conditions have not yet been fully agreed, reminiscent of ISW. Therefore, it remains unlikely that the United States, Ukraine and Russia will be able to agree on the conditions of complete ceasefire for the next three weeks, and experts of the Institute of War Study.

Meanwhile Russian officials continue to undermine the potential American-Ukrainian mineral agreement by promoting hypothetical US-Russian projections for the extraction of rare earth elements, added to ISW. The Institute’s specialists make new statements by the Kremlin speaker Dmitry Peskov and the CEO of the Russian direct investment fund Cyril Dmitriev on this topic. In particular, Dmitriev claims that Russia and the US representatives began discussing common projects on rare earth elements. According to him, US-Russian economic cooperation should be in the spotlight if the United States wants to put an end to the war in Ukraine, and such cooperation will only begin after the end of peace talks.

In this way, the Kremlin tries to represent Russia as a seller of rare earth elements that exceeds Ukraine and to undermine the goals of Trump’s administration to associate American and Ukrainian economic interests through the American-Ukrainian Mining Agreement.

At the same time, ISW adds that the economic cooperation that Russia seeks with the United States does not restrain the Russian Federation from re -invasion of Ukraine in the future and will not contribute to achieving the goals of Trump’s administration on the economic relations of the United States and Ukraine. Such cooperation would also accelerate the restoration of the Russian army. And Russia’s access to minerals in the occupied territories of Ukraine would probably expand China’s ability to access them. After all, since 2005, Russia has cooperated with PRC in the production of Russian rare earth minerals.

ISW continues to estimate that Russia is using economic incentives not related to war to demand from the United States concessions about war in Ukraine. These concessions would deprive the USA levers of influence, which are decisive for Trump’s stated goal, to achieve a strong and mutually beneficial peace in Ukraine, the ISW emphasizes.