“According to the estimates of American officials on the condition of anonymity, if Russia begins to more actively push Ukrainian forces out of the Kursk region from the new year, then the Armed Forces of Ukraine will have to retreat by the spring of 2025 – or the forces of the Armed Forces of Ukraine risk being surrounded.”, — write: www.pravda.com.ua
According to the estimates of American officials on condition of anonymity, if Russia begins to more actively push Ukrainian forces out of the Kursk region from the new year, then the Armed Forces of Ukraine will have to retreat by the spring of 2025 – or the forces of the Armed Forces of Ukraine risk being surrounded.
Source: Bloomberg
Details: The publication notes that Ukrainian forces have currently lost about half of the territory captured in Russia’s Kursk region, and may lose the rest in a few months.
According to American officials, this could deprive Ukraine of important leverage in negotiations with Russia on a ceasefire.
The Ukrainian military is reportedly already facing manpower shortages and uncertainty about the future flow of supplies from the US and other allies.
American officials said on condition of anonymity that if Moscow begins to more purposefully push Ukrainian troops out of Kursk from the new year, Kyiv’s forces will be able to hold this territory only until the spring of 2025, after which they will be forced to retreat – or risk being surrounded.
At the same time, one of the officials noted that Ukrainian troops have already managed to hold positions in Kursk longer than some initial forecasts, thanks in part to the US decision to allow Kyiv to launch long-range missiles into Russian territory.
Another official cautioned that Ukraine never intended to hold Kursk.
Thus, the retreat can still be presented as a tactical success. The two officials expressed hope that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyi would order a retreat from Kursk soon enough to avoid heavy casualties.
Despite the possible retreat of Ukrainian troops, the invasion has already caused significant losses to both Russian and North Korean troops.
John Kirby, a spokesman for the US National Security Council, told reporters on Friday that North Koreans, backed by Russia, have been conducting “massive, widespread attacks on Ukrainian positions in Kursk” that have killed and injured more than 1,000 people in the past week alone. .
If Russian forces launch an effective counteroffensive in Kurshchyna, they will likely target key roads and towns to force Ukraine to retreat, and could send additional North Korean troops, one of the officials said.
North Korea could provide about 8,000 more troops to support Russia’s efforts by spring, the official said, but added that estimate could be “imprecise.”