The European Union is deliberating various strategies in response to the possibility of Prime Minister Viktor Orban’s party winning the forthcoming parliamentary elections in Hungary. Discussions among EU diplomats have identified five potential courses of action.
One proposed option involves extending qualified majority voting to sensitive areas currently requiring unanimous agreement, such as foreign policy and specific elements of the EU’s long-term budget. A diplomat noted, “If you want to respond swiftly, you need more decisions made by qualified majority, regardless of the specific case with Orban.”
Another suggestion, supported by four diplomats, is the adoption of a “multi-speed Europe” approach. This would facilitate the use of flexible formats, allowing for informal coalitions among smaller groups of countries to enhance cooperation.
However, two diplomats expressed reservations about these limited formats, arguing they should be exceptions rather than the new norm. A further option on the table includes imposing stricter sanctions on Hungary, such as withholding EU funds.
European Council President Antonio Costa has indicated that Orban’s blocking of credit to Ukraine may violate Article 4(3) of the EU Treaty, which mandates member states to ensure “sincere cooperation.” A senior official from the European Commission mentioned that invoking Article 4(3) could lead to financial sanctions.
Another consideration is the suspension of Hungary’s voting rights in the EU Council. However, achieving this would require the backing of all other 27 member states, and Slovakia has already indicated it would not support such a move.
Among the more extreme and least feasible options discussed is Hungary’s expulsion from the EU. No member state has ever been expelled, making this a sensitive topic. One diplomat referenced a legal blog that explored the potential re-evaluation of the exit clause (Article 50), which was triggered by the United Kingdom during Brexit, as a means to “oust Hungary.” While acknowledging this scenario as unrealistic, the diplomat remarked that it had resurfaced in discussions, highlighting its contentious nature.
Notably, on March 27, Viktor Orban faced an unusually large number of counter-demonstrators during a campaign rally, prompting him to raise his voice in response.
The EU is exploring various strategies to address the potential re-election of Viktor Orban, including changes to voting procedures and possible sanctions. Diplomatic discussions reveal a range of opinions on how to effectively manage Hungary's position within the bloc.