“What is the reason for the certain turbulence in Central Europe, the strengthening of interstate disputes? When the sense of frontierism and the dangers associated with it become acute, then there is a great temptation to disperse to our little quarters instead of uniting.”, — write: www.pravda.com.ua
What is the reason for the certain turbulence in Central Europe, the strengthening of interstate disputes?
When the sense of frontierism and the dangers associated with it become acute, then there is a great temptation to disperse to our little quarters instead of uniting. After all, there is always the illusion that you can better protect yourself in your little shell.
And so today the main dilemma in Central Europe is the choice between whether it is safer and more correct to be a community, or is it better to focus on your own?
We have other challenges. The main thing that Ukraine has to do now is to survive! And everything should be subordinated to this goal. It is obvious that this goal does not contradict, but on the contrary is strengthened in the context of relations with our partners and nearest neighbors.
That part of the leaders in the West, in particular, this also applies to the leaders who won the elections in the USA, have certain ideas that seem illusory to us.
I can’t say that they are somehow malignant. Perhaps it is natural for people to think this way. For example, about the fact that Putin is ready to make some kind of fair deal if he makes some tactical concessions. For example, to refuse to reconquer part of the occupied Ukrainian territories or to remove the issue of joining NATO from the agenda.
And then, they say, Putin will sign an agreement, the war will end, people will stop dying. In this way, Ukraine will receive this historical space for development, in order to focus on reconstruction, on the return of people, on joining the EU, etc. And Russia will calm down and live there, illegally controlling some part of the territory.
But I believe that believing that Putin can agree to such a thing is a very deep illusion.
If Putin’s key interest was to prevent Ukraine from joining NATO, he would not have attacked Ukraine either in 2022 or 2014.
Back in 2014, this issue was already resolved. Everyone knew that there was no (at that time) path to NATO for Ukraine. And even at the beginning of 2022, when they refused to provide the Membership Action Plan for decades. That is, there was no “threat” that Ukraine would join NATO in the foreseeable future.
In fact, if Putin wanted to prevent Ukraine from joining NATO, he would not have attacked Ukraine. And if he did it, then the goal is something else. And therefore, removing one “NATO” brick from this picture will not achieve anything.
Putin will agree to talk about a relatively fair peace only when he realizes that he will lose, and that time is not on his side, and it is necessary to try to fix what is. Only then will he agree to talk about some formulas.
Until then, he will be sure that time is on his side, that he should delay the events, at the same time accusing the West or Ukraine, that it does not want to agree on anything. But in reality, he just wants to take advantage of this time to further contribute to the gradual erosion of the international coalition in support of Ukraine, the decline of the political will to act in solidarity with Ukraine.
Experts, politicians, public figures are really seriously discussing the Vance Plan, Pompeo’s plan, someone else’s plan out there. Several options are being considered: the British military will station themselves on the Dnieper or on the Siversky Dinka.
That is, a bunch of illusions, which, unfortunately, are about nothing. These are not the things that will lead to peace. Point.
Summary of the oral presentation at the international forum Re:Open Zakarpattia 2024, organized by the Institute of Central European Strategy (ICES)
Oleksandr Sushko, executive director of MF “Renaissance”