“1. People in Ukraine dream of peace and long for it more than any international partners. All diplomatic efforts to achieve it are important and appreciated. The main thing is that they lead to peace. And for this, any plan must answer at least two questions.”, — write: www.pravda.com.ua
2. First, is this plan capable of stopping the war? The human dimension occupies the second place in the plan – the issue of deported Ukrainian children, prisoners of war and illegally imprisoned civilians, protection of life, security, freedom of religion, property and other rights of millions of people under occupation. There is not a single word about the fate of people in the occupation in this regard. The paragraph on the humanitarian committee contains a reference to the exchange of prisoners of war and the return of civilian hostages, including children, which is not formulated as an imperative requirement. So let’s focus on the first one.
3. In the first question, we are talking about stopping the war, not a pause of several months or years. For this, it is necessary to analyze whether this plan reduces or increases the probability that Russia will resume or expand its aggression against Ukraine in the coming years?
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4. We do not see in the plan a point about complete withdrawal of Russian troops and all heavy weapons to a safe distance. Instead, asymmetrical military restrictions only in relation to Ukraine. Putin is getting territories the size of Luxembourg that he has yet to capture. Sanctions are lifted from Russia itself so that it can rearm freely. This course of weakening the victim of aggression and strengthening the aggressor creates space for future aggression.
5. Separately, it is worth highlighting the issue of US guarantees in support of the peace and security of Ukraine, which was attacked by Russia. We will remind that Ukraine gave away the third largest nuclear potential in exchange for US guarantees in the Budapest Memorandum, and learned this lesson well. Specific forces and resources and a clear mechanism for their involvement are needed. But this plan does not provide for them.
6. Since the EU was not involved in the preparation of this plan, it makes no sense to analyze the clauses on the use of frozen Russian assets, which are located mainly in the EU. At the same time, it is worth noting the point about obtaining profit from these assets for the US as an intermediary. This is the first time in the history of the United States that its guarantees are conditional on direct payments from a state that has suffered from aggression and is under protection.
7. And most importantly, the plan in this form overrides the UN Charter and de facto forms a new international order based on the right of force. The plan does not have any negative consequences for aggression, instead it provides amnesty for war crimes committed by Russia, which legitimizes such actions and encourages Russia to start wars against other countries in the future. This precedent will also undoubtedly become an example for other parts of the world to follow and undermine the already shaky stability in the world.
8. Conclusion. In order to become peaceful, this plan needs to be refined and include the human dimension with the involvement of Ukraine and the EU.
Oleksandra Matviychuk
A column is a type of material that reflects exclusively the point of view of the author. It does not claim objectivity and comprehensive coverage of the topic in question. The point of view of the editors of “Economic Pravda” and “Ukrainian Pravda” may not coincide with the author’s point of view. The editors are not responsible for the reliability and interpretation of the given information and perform exclusively the role of a carrier.