“Inflation slowed faster than the government predicted.”, — write: www.unian.ua
Inflation slowed faster than the government predicted.
Horshkova noted that, in general, the expectations regarding the main factors of economic growth were fulfilled/ photo ua.depositphotos.comAccording to preliminary estimates, in 2025 the real GDP of Ukraine increased by 2.2%. The economy continued to operate in the face of attacks on energy infrastructure, complex logistics and high security risks, the Ministry of Economy, Environment and Agriculture reported.
As Nataliya Gorshkova, director of the Department of Strategic Planning and Macroeconomic Forecasting of the Ministry of Economy, noted during the discussion of the Center for Economic Strategy, GDP growth was somewhat lower than expected by the government, but in general the economy once again demonstrated stability.
“There was a forecast of 2.7%, we held it until October, we thought we had a chance to get close figures. But then the attacks on the energy infrastructure, which we saw almost every day, led to the fact that we adjusted our expectations to 2.2-2.3%,” she said.
Horshkova reported that, in general, expectations regarding the main factors of economic growth were fulfilled, and the main driver remained domestic demand.
According to the Ministry of Economy, GDP growth was supported by positive dynamics, in particular, in the following key sectors: domestic (mainly retail) trade; construction; processing industry, in particular, increasing the production of defense products, pharmaceutical products, metallurgical products, building materials and other products.
There was also an increase in the utilization of production facilities in industry. According to the State Statistics Service, as of October 1, 2025, the highest employment level was recorded in pharmaceutical production, furniture production, wood processing, food and textile industries.
In turn, factors such as:
- massive Russian missile attacks on power generation facilities and, for the first time in the years of a full-scale war, on gas extraction infrastructure;
- lower harvest of certain crops due to unfavorable weather conditions (in particular, the biggest decrease – in oil crops, while the grain harvest was harvested by 3% more);
- logistical difficulties, cessation of transit of natural gas by pipeline transport, as well as narrowing of demand, in particular from the side of agriculture.
Gorshkova also noted that the government predicted higher inflation – 9.5-9.9%, while in December the annual inflation rate was 8%.
“The sharp slowdown in the fourth quarter and December’s surprise in general was unexpected. We believe that such “ragged” dynamics of inflation during the entire period of the war just reflects the uncertainty factor,” she said.
Economy of Ukraine – the latest newsThe State Statistics Service reported that inflation in the consumer market in December 2025, compared to November, was 0.2%, and in annual terms, compared to December 2024, it was 8%.
The Ministry of Economy predicted the growth of Ukraine’s GDP in 2026 at the level of 2.5%. At the same time, the World Bank radically reduced its own forecast from 5.2% to 2%.
You may also be interested in news:
- The financing of Kyiv is not resolved: the EU almost agreed on €90 billion, but it is not enough – Politico
- Ukraine came out of “limited default”: Fitch raised the country’s credit rating
- “You need it”: the IMF does not back down from the demand to introduce VAT for FOPs, – Reuters