“The author writes that the Russian Federation is advancing slowly at the cost of heavy losses, is sliding into a demographic and economic crisis, but Putin continues to believe that his reserves will hold.”, — write: www.unian.ua
The author writes that the Russian Federation is advancing slowly at the cost of heavy losses, is sliding into a demographic and economic crisis, but Putin continues to believe that his reserves will hold.
The influence of Putin’s Russia in the world is falling / photo ua.depositphotos.comDuring the years of Russia’s full-scale military aggression against Ukraine, dictator Putin’s military machine did not make significant progress. As Andres Resch, a political scientist from Switzerland, international security expert and doctor of science, writes in a column for the German publication Neue Zürcher Zeitung, Putin is “leading Russia to disaster.” And today he can only boast that the Europeans began to fear his country again and Europe began to invest colossal sums in rearmament.
“But Russia has not gained prestige or global influence through its aggression. Quite the opposite: Putin’s empire is weaker today than it was four years ago. He is following a pernicious path that is draining his country and making it dependent on China,” the article says.
Helplessness in the international arenaThe author divided the signs of weakening into two large blocks. First, the Russian Federation is losing its influence on the international arena. It failed to support the regime of Venezuelan dictator Nicolas Maduro, and Putin only “watched helplessly as his most important ally in Latin America was pushed out.” Also, the seizure of tankers of its “shadow fleet” testifies to the weakening of Russia. In addition, Russia is passively watching the escalation of protests in Iran, providing neither military nor financial aid to the weak government. Although in a similar situation in Syria in 2015, Russia managed to save Bashar Assad’s regime.
The influence of the Russian Federation in Africa is also declining, although it can still exert pressure in some countries. In Central Asia, Russia’s influence is gradually being taken over by China. For example, China overtook the Russian Federation and became the most important trading partner of Kazakhstan.
The situation in the South Caucasus is also not in Russia’s favor: “The war for Nagorno-Karabakh demonstrated that Russia is no longer able to play its former role as the defender of Armenia.” At this stage, Russia maintains influence over the authoritarian regime in Georgia, but this policy is extremely unpopular among the majority of Georgians.
“Putin’s obsession with Ukraine led to the fact that Russia had to neglect other spheres of interest. But Putin suffered his biggest strategic defeat in Ukraine. The Russian dictator may seem confident of victory and show no readiness for a ceasefire, and his troops continue to advance. But his goal – to wipe Ukraine off the face of the earth as an independent, pro-Western and democratic state – seems even more unrealistic today than four years ago,” he writes. the author
The fall of the economy is deepeningHe added that even the fact that Russia controls a fifth of Ukraine does not change this “fiasco of Putin’s policy”. Since the advance is slow and at the expense of huge losses, which, taking into account the seriously wounded, probably already reach a million.
The second major block, which indicates Russia’s weakening, concerns its demography and economy. The publication writes that the demographic crisis in the Russian Federation is deepening, including due to mass emigration. And the alarming signals in the Russian economy are growing: “The initially successful military economy is increasingly reaching its limits. Growth has stalled, and a terrifyingly high 40 percent of the state budget is directed to the inefficient military and power apparatus. Dependence on oil and gas exports is proving to be an Achilles’ heel, as Western sanctions and the collapse of oil prices have led to the reduction of revenues from this sector by almost half in a year.”
Russia succeeded in dividing the WestThe author admitted that the Kremlin regime still has reserves to continue the war. In addition, Putin hopes that these reserves will turn out to be more than Ukraine has at its disposal. Only the continuation and increase of Western support for the Ukrainian people can convince him of this. At the same time, the publication called the split of the Western bloc “Putin’s only major foreign policy success”:
“This is not his achievement, but rather a consequence of Donald Trump’s victory in the US elections. However, with the departure of America, the main guarantor of European security, an old Moscow dream has come true. The fact that Western Europeans are now worried about the dispute over Greenland, fearing that one NATO member may seize territory from another ally, should be perceived as a Christmas gift by the Kremlin.”
The column also analyzes Trump’s actions, it is recalled that under Trump, the United States stopped financing military aid to Ukraine and reduced arms sales to European countries. And Trump himself is “trying to convince Ukrainians of the hopelessness of the defensive struggle.” And this “wrong approach only reinforces Putin’s hopes that he will emerge from the military quagmire in Ukraine as a winner.” Thus, the journalist concludes, Trump “depicts Russia as a more powerful player than it really is.”
How long does the Russian aggression last?We will remind you that Russia’s full-scale war against Ukraine has already exceeded the duration of the Soviet Union’s war against Nazi Germany. In 1,418 days, the Soviet troops pushed the enemy to Berlin, and the Russian army advanced 48 kilometers from the point from which the offensive began in February 2022. At the same time, without capturing any regional center. Analysts believe that at this stage Putin is not ready to stop his troops.
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