“The war became the basis of the Russian economy and society, the onset of peace can lead to collapse of the whole system.”, – WRITE: www.unian.ua
The war became the basis of the Russian economy and society, the onset of peace can lead to collapse of the whole system.
Putin is afraid to lose control of the country if it announces peace / collage of UNIAN, photo ReutersThe war against Ukraine has become a heavy burden for the Russian economy and threatens Russia with a serious crisis. But the Kremlin does not show any intentions to curtail aggression, even if there is a convenient drive given by the United States. It seems that Vladimir Putin considers the end of the war a much greater risk to himself than its continuation, writes Jan Garner, Associate Professor of the Center for Totalitarian Studies of the Piletsky (Poland) Center for Totalitarian Studies of the Piletsky (Poland).
The analyst emphasizes that even the relatively significant successes of the Russian army in the Kursk region in no way indicate the possibility of Russia’s military victory over Ukraine in the foreseeable future. However, the war is devouring Russian resources, including combat equipment and people.
Garner does not exclude that Putin can really believe in the ability to train the best conditions of end of the war, if he continues to pull time and press on Ukraine at the front. However, the analyst is more important that the end of the war can jeopardize Putin’s power in Russia itself.
Thus, from economic and demographic points of view, the continuation of the war is unacceptable to Russia, but these problems may seem not so important than the risks that the stopping of hostilities, writes the analyst.
Garner emphasizes that the “incredible” growth of the Russian economy for the last three years has been based solely on astronomical monetary infusions into the defense industry. Stopping war and reducing the cost of military production “can strike a hammer” in the Russian economy, says the analyst.
“If the Kremlin wants to avoid economic collapse, it will have to continue its current levels for a long time after the war end,” the German economist Janis Kluga recently said.
Garner agrees with this thesis. According to him, the Russian economy in its current form cannot exist without any war, or huge costs for the preparation of the army for a new war.
Equally important expert is the socio-political aspect of the end of the war. Over the past three years, aggression against Ukraine has become an important socio -cultural incentive for much of Russian society, as well as the main source of material comfort.
The sudden cessation of war against Ukraine and the stop of cash flows into the regions that have made in the war can cause a spike in anger and dissatisfaction in the masses. Putin and his advisers can assume that the continuation of the war with large payments to the province is the best option.
According to Garner, Putin will evade the end of the war until the economic situation in Russia has become a greater problem for the country than the war itself, or until Ukraine begins to win on the front.
The Kremlin is evading peaceful settlement in UkraineAccording to UNIAN, in March, the United States initiated the immediate 30-day ceasefire in Ukraine. The Ukrainian side supported this proposal, expressing its readiness for a temporary truce.
However, Russia’s response to this initiative was ambiguous. Russian President Vladimir Putin has put forward a number of conditions for the introduction of a truce, including the requirement to stop mobilization in Ukraine and to stop the supply of weapons from Western partners.
President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelensky noted that Putin is actually preparing a rejection of the US proposal without expressing a direct objection, but by making conditions that complicate the achievement of the agreements.
Analysts of the Institute of War Study (ISW) emphasized that the Kremlin is not interested in the real ceasefire and trying to delay the process of peace negotiations, using a pause for regrouping and re -equipment of its forces.
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