“If the war ends successfully for Russia, then the incentive to continue will be greater.”, — write: www.unian.ua
If the war ends successfully for Russia, then the incentive to continue will be greater.
An Austrian political scientist commented on the probability of war between NATO and the Russian Federation / UNIAN collage, UNIAN photo, REUTERSThe scenario of a Russian attack on one of the NATO countries depends on the results of the war against Ukraine.
This was stated by the authoritative Austrian political scientist and Eastern European security expert Gustav Gressel in an interview with Ukrinform. “Apart from Ukraine, Russia cannot now attack another country. They couldn’t even help Armenia – well, they didn’t really want to there – but they definitely wanted to help Assad, but they couldn’t. They didn’t have enough forces,” he said.
So, according to him, the main question is how quickly and under what conditions the war against Ukraine will end. Gressel explained that if the war ends with a success for the Russian Federation or something that can be passed off as a success, then the incentive to continue will be greater, because the Russians will feel victorious and sell it internally as a victory.
But, as the expert noted, if the war ends in defeat or an outcome that looks more like defeat, then perhaps they will not want to resort to such escalation maneuvers, because they will not want a repeat.
“The problem is that I don’t see a real awareness or determination among Europeans to say: ‘It is precisely because we are now vulnerable – due to the possible departure of Trump – that Ukraine must win.’ because if Ukraine loses, then we will be the next ones to be targeted,” the political scientist said.
According to him, although there are about 1.5 million military personnel in Europe, most of them are engaged in bureaucracy and work in educational institutions.
“If the war starts tomorrow, who can be mobilized and sent to the border the same evening? Many countries have only one battalion or brigade that can be sent immediately. If you compare how many brigades Ukraine has and how many we would have, it is much less. This is the problem of organizing peacetime: it always takes time to build up military power and be able to deter,” Gressel noted.
At the same time, as the expert added, without American aviation, Europe will have to compensate for what it lacks in the sky with firepower and presence on the ground, which NATO never anticipated.
“We have always said: we have few ground forces, but a lot of firepower in the air, which destroys a lot, and therefore we need smaller ground forces. Now we are faced with the problem that due to the departure of the US Air Force, there is a huge gap in our firepower,” he summarized.
The war between the Russian Federation and NATOOn October 13, during the NATO Parliamentary Assembly, Secretary General Mark Rutte said that if Russia is “stupid enough” to attack NATO, then it will be open war between the Russian Federation and the Alliance.
According to him, the probable war between the Russian Federation and NATO would be different from the war of the Russians against Ukraine.
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