“In Europe, no systematic effort has been made to assess the full scale and nature of Russia’s actions, analysts believe.”, — write: www.unian.ua
In Europe, no systematic effort has been made to assess the full scale and nature of Russia’s actions, analysts believe.
Moscow proved a long time ago that it does not care about the lives of civilians / UNIAN collage, photo – ua.depositphotos.com, REUTERSOver the past three years, Russia has been waging an audacious campaign of sabotage and subversion against Ukraine’s European allies. In 2024, Moscow began to act even more brutally, moving to killings and damaging water bodies in Europe. The weak reaction of European leaders to what is happening may lead to the fact that the Russian Federation will take unprecedented actions.Bart Schurman, a professor of terrorism and political violence at Leiden University in the Netherlands, stated this in his column for Foreign Policy.
It is noted that this week the deputy of the State Duma of the Russian Federation Oleksandr Kazakov spoke about the fact that Russian sabotage in the Baltic Sea is part of a military operation aimed at provoking NATO and expanding Russian control over this region. Despite this, no systematic effort has been made in Europe to assess the full scale and nature of Russia’s actions.
Leiden University conducted an analysis of how far the Russian Federation is willing to go to weaken its European adversaries and isolate Ukraine from vital support. According to Schurman, the escalation can reach a little lower than the nuclear threshold.
The study highlights that Russia is increasingly moving beyond its longstanding espionage and cybercrime campaigns. Experts estimate that in 2022, Moscow staged 6 sabotages or preparations for them in Europe, and in 2024 this figure increased to 44.
The targets of the Russian sabotage were a wide variety of objects – from the critically important underwater energy and communication infrastructure in the North and Baltic Seas to military bases, warehouses and factories for the production of weapons.
In addition, the Russians often conduct so-called “influence operations”. They are aimed at European politicians in order to undermine political support for Ukraine.
In addition to sophisticated measures, the Russian Federation is also involved in numerous acts of vandalism in Europe. This testifies to the dual operational approach of the Russian special services, Shurman noted.
In 2024, Russian operations against Europe intensified sharply and became more sophisticated. For example, the murder of a pilot who deserted, the preparation for the murder of the CEO of the German arms manufacturer Rheinmetall Armin Papperger, and even a conspiracy to remove the President of Ukraine, Volodymyr Zelenskyi, the professor added.
In addition, the Russians placed incendiary devices on DHL flights, which could lead to disasters. Some Western security officials now suspect the operations were a rehearsal for future attacks on US-bound airliners, meaning Russia has effectively moved to acts of state terrorism, Schurman said.
Russia’s shooting down of an Azerbaijan Airlines flight in December 2024 proves the Kremlin’s disregard for the lives of civilians. Therefore, Europe may face a serious threat, the professor believes.
According to him, the campaign of subversion against Ukraine’s European allies may include conspiracies. For example, in 2024, schools in Slovakia and the Czech Republic received more than a thousand bomb threats. Shurman also mentioned a number of break-ins at water treatment plants in European countries, in which the Russian Federation may be involved.
With such operations, Russia intends to undermine Europe’s willingness to continue providing military aid to Ukraine and demonstrate how far Moscow is willing to go to achieve its goals, the professor explained.
An analysis by Leiden University found that Russia would not use nuclear weapons because it would significantly increase the risk that Ukraine’s allies would retaliate. Therefore, most likely, Moscow will do everything possible to weaken support for Kyiv and suppress the morale of Europeans, which could lead to large-scale protests and instability in the region.
Schurman is convinced that Europe will need to invest in strengthening its intelligence services to maximize their ability to counter the growing Russian threat. He also added that in the longer term, serious and concerted efforts should be made to revive the own arms industry.
Russian sabotage in Europe is important newsEarlier, the Minister of Foreign Affairs of the Czech Republic, Jan Lipavsky, said that up to 100 cyberattacks and sabotage in Europe could be linked to the Russian Federation. Officials agree that Russia is waging a hybrid war against Europe.
In addition, the head of Britain’s secret intelligence service (MI-6), Richard Moore, accused the Russian Federation of sabotage in Europe. According to him, the price of supporting Ukraine is well known, but “the price of refusing it will be incomparably higher.”
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