“He believes that Ukraine needs to focus not on knocking out security guarantees from the US, but on completely different things.”, — write: www.unian.ua
He believes that Ukraine needs to focus not on knocking out security guarantees from the US, but on completely different things.
Gordon told what will actually stop Putin from a new invasion / photo ua.depositphotos.comAfter several months of negotiations, the United States and Ukraine agree on the principles that could become the basis for a possible peace agreement with the Russian Federation.
As Philip Gordon, who worked as a national security adviser to Vice President Kamala Harris, writes in an article for The New York Times, the essence of the proposed agreement is that Ukraine will give up Donbas in exchange for reliable security guarantees from the United States, which stipulate that the Russian Federation will never attack Ukraine again.
Gordon believes that the President of Ukraine, Volodymyr Zelensky, would need to somehow justify his willingness to make such a sacrifice, which the majority of Ukrainians oppose.
“But it is also strategically wrong, since any security guarantee given by US President Donald Trump will not be even remotely plausible. To truly guarantee Ukraine’s security, it would be much better to demand specific self-defense measures than security guarantees that no one – and certainly not the Russian dictator Vladimir Putin – will ever believe,” Gordon expressed his opinion.
The politician believes that doubts about Trump’s readiness to fulfill security guarantees for Ukraine begin with the fact that he has never shown any desire to directly confront Putin’s Russia, certainly not in a military sense.
He noted that if Ukraine cannot count on Trump to help even in the face of an outright invasion, it is hard to imagine him doing so, let alone confronting Russia militarily in any less serious situation, simply because of a nominal commitment.
“There is no particular reason to believe that signing such a commitment on paper will affect Trump… He has repeatedly stated that even the defense guarantee under Article 5 of NATO, in his opinion, only works if the allies pay their “bills”, – Gordon gave an example.
In the draft agreement, which the US discussed with the Ukrainian authorities, the conditions for the new security guarantee will apply to a “significant, deliberate and prolonged” armed attack by the Russian Federation.
“These clauses will allow Trump to waive the guarantee if he considers the new attack to be insignificant, accidental or temporary… Russia will come up with a pretext for a new attack on Ukraine, and Trump will use this pretext as an excuse to withdraw support for Ukraine,” Gordon explained.
Given these realities, as the politician noted, it would be naive and irresponsible for Zelensky to exchange valuable strategic territories for such a dubious guarantee.
“Instead, he should focus his efforts at the negotiating table on material assets that will really help Ukraine in defense and deter Russia much more than paper promises,” – believes the ex-advisor.
Such a package could include access to frozen Russian assets stored mainly in Europe, the United States and Japan. Gordon noted that the European Union, which owns most of the rockets, is reluctant to hand them over to Ukraine, but is likely to do so if it means an end to the war.
Zelensky should also seek a major new arms package from the US, including Patriot and other air defense systems, long-range missiles, F-16 fighter jets, ammunition and artillery. Part of this weaponry could be financed by Russian forces, part by European and other countries; part – at the expense of available American reserves using special presidential powers; and some projects, if Trump allows, may be funded by Congress.
Gordon noted that another concrete element, more valuable than a security guarantee, would be Ukrainian control over the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant, which was seized by Russia. The politician believes that if it is returned to Ukraine within the framework of a territorial compromise, the station can be managed jointly by the US and Ukraine, as proposed by Zelenskyi, providing a reliable energy supply for mining projects that could bring profit to both the US and Ukraine.
“Finally, the president of Ukraine should make American investments a priority. The presence of American firms and personnel would not only give a boost to the Ukrainian economy and open up opportunities for American industry, but would also provide the US with an additional, significant interest in the future stability and prosperity of Ukraine, as well as additional deterrence of Russia,” the politician expressed his opinion.
He believes that none of these steps should be out of reach if Ukraine makes them a prerequisite for any peace deal and if Trump sees them as the path to ending the war he seeks.
“These conditions should not be impossible for Russia, if they are related to a large territorial concession, which the Russian Federation can consider as the achievement of its main military goal. Trump also needs to make it clear that the refusal of such conditions will mean the continuation of Russian losses on the battlefield and the maintenance of sanctions that have harmed the Russian economy,” Gordon noted.
“Zelensky’s relentless pursuit of specific security guarantees is understandable, but in the end it will turn out to be useless and perhaps even dangerous. It is not too late for him to change his approach. As Trump admitted, the details of security guarantees are far from being finalized, and he does not have a deadline for concluding an agreement. The terms of the agreement will undoubtedly change again as soon as Russia intervenes,” the ex-advisor expressed confidence.
He emphasized that as the negotiations progress, Zelensky should focus on steps that will really help deter future Russian aggression, and not on empty promises of American security guarantees.
Security guarantees for UkraineRecently, the French President Emmanuel Macron’s office announced the terms of readiness for security guarantees for Ukraine. It is assumed that the powerful Ukrainian army will be the first line of security guarantees.
In addition, Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk made a statement that the key result of the negotiations was the US declaration on security guarantees, including the deployment of US troops in Ukraine.
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