“This scenario will become possible if Putin is not defeated in Ukraine.”, — write: www.unian.ua
This scenario will become possible if Putin is not defeated in Ukraine.
Russian tanks will go to Estonia if Ukraine is defeated / photo REUTERSIf Putin wins in Ukraine, Russia will certainly invade Europe, and the first victim will be Estonia. Newsweek writes about this with reference to the German political scientist Carlo Masal.
In his book “If Russia Wins: The Scenario”, he describes the events that will follow Russia’s victory in Ukraine. At the same time, by victory he understands the situation when the Russian Federation will receive the entire territories of Kherson, Zaporizhzhia, Donetsk and Luhansk regions in addition to Crimea, and Ukraine will be forced to legally declare its military neutrality in return.
Further developments, according to Masala, will determine Donald Trump’s clear reluctance to defend Europe in the event of a Russian invasion, as well as the inability of current Europe to defend itself on its own.
Russia will strike Estonia first by occupying the border city of Narva, which is large by Estonian standards and has a predominantly ethnic Russian population. The formal justification for the invasion will be the Moscow-inspired protests of the citizens against “oppression” by the central government of Estonia.
In his book, Masala simulates the Russian invasion of Narva to the sound of explosions on the morning of March 27, 2028, and the rapid capture of the city by Russian forces within a few hours. In particular, with the help of some local residents, armed in advance by the Russians.
In addition to Narva, Russia may try to seize the strategically important Estonian island of Hiiumaa in the Baltic Sea. For this, it will be enough for the Russians to land a sea landing with the support of saboteurs sent to the island in advance under the guise of tourists. At the same time, the Russian Baltic Fleet can completely block the entire eastern part of the Baltic Sea.
According to Masala, the Kremlin’s actions will be based on the fact that other NATO countries will try to avoid a full-scale war over what will look like a small border incident. In this, the political scientist sees a fundamental difference between the Russian invasion of Ukraine and a hypothetical aggression against Estonia: in Ukraine, it is about the seizure of territory, and in the case of Estonia, it is about testing NATO’s resolve.
“I don’t think Putin wants to recreate the Soviet Union, he wants to dominate Europe in general, but definitely in politics and Eastern Europe,” Masala said.
Russia’s war against NATOAs UNIAN wrote, former top CIA official Robert Dannenberg suggested that Russia will continue to provoke NATO with its drones and planes until one of the planes is shot down. And this can turn into an uncontrolled escalation.
The former commander of US forces in Europe, Ben Godges, is convinced that Russia will not provoke a full-scale conflict with NATO. In his opinion, Russia will immediately lose Kaliningrad, and Sevastopol, as a military base, will be destroyed.
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