China encountered a threat more serious than Trump’s policy – The Washington Post

The problem is not even in the fight against the US / UNIAN collage, photo ua.depositphotos.comThe main threat that China faces today is not from the outside and not from the US Presidential Administration Donald Trump with her course to “separate” the two largest economies in the world.

The danger comes from the inside: the country is experiencing an unprecedented scale and speed of population decline. This will lead to long -term consequences that will be felt not only in China itself, but in the world for decades, writes The Washington Post

Slowing economic growth can jeopardize Beijing’s ambition to become a global superpower, which can be compared with the United States, and the acute lack of labor is able to break the chains of supplies of goods – from Barbie dolls and shoes to mobile phones and electric vehicles.

“It is almost impossible to return the demographic decline,” says the head of the Asian economy department at Oxford Economics, Luise Luiz Luise. According to it, the reduction of labor in China can reduce the annual GDP growth by about 0.5% over the next decade.

In 1990, the average age of the Chinese was 23.7 years, and the average woman gave birth to 2.51 children – which is higher than the level necessary to maintain a stable population (2,1). But by 2023 the demographic picture changed dramatically: the median age increased to 39.1 years, and fertility fell to one child on a woman. In 2022, according to the census, the population of China reached a peak of 1.4 billion people and is now decreasing.

The UN predicts that by 2050 the population of China will decrease to 1.26 billion, while the age -old ratio will deteriorate: about 10% will be younger than 40%, and about 40% – older than 60. By 2100, the population can be reduced more than half – up to 633 million, of which only 7.8%.

One child’s policyThe media writes that the root of the current problems of China – in the policy of birth control, started in the 1970s. Then the government promoted the slogan “later, less often, less”, urging to marry later, to make greater intervals between childbirth and to have fewer children. But already in 1979, the authorities officially introduced the rule of “one family – one child”. For its implementation often used forced sterilization, abortions and penalties for “excess” childbirth.

The measures are reported to be too effective. The birth rate collapsed, and in 2015 the restriction had to be weakened: since 2016 it was allowed to have two children, from 2021 to three. However, the birth rate did not recover, and after a short burst of 2024, she even continued to decline – from 1.77 children per woman in 2016 to 1,12 2021.

The cost of raising a child in China is one of the reasons for this fall. According to the Beijing Institute of Yuwa Population Research Institute, it is an average of about $ 74,963 before the university graduates, and in metropolitan areas, like Shanghai reaches $ 140,747.

The government tries to stimulate the birth rate of cash payments, but without much success: 2025 Beijing offered a subsidy of about $ 500 a year per child in the first three years of life. Many in social networks responded sarcastically: “If they paid ten times more, you can think.”

Other problems in this fieldThe fertility also reflects the fall in the number of marriages. In 2024, only 6.1 million marriages were registered in China – less than half of 13.5 million in 2013. The youth of the Zh Generation is more and more meaningless in marriage and paternity.

However, the authorities are actively promoting marriage: universities conduct “love courses”, companies offer bonuses to married employees, and local administrations pay bonuses for marriage registration. State media even criticize a TV show, where divorce is depicted as release, journalists say.

In addition to reducing fertility, life expectancy increases. The number of elderly Chinese is rapidly increasing and, according to forecasts, will double in 30 years. This creates a tremendous burden on the pension system that is funded by taxes. By 2100, there will be more people who are not employed in the economy in China than workers.

Reduction of laborChina has been a “world factory” for decades, but this era is coming to an end. The reduction of the number of able -bodied citizens makes it impossible to maintain the former production volumes.

“Currently, China accounts for about 30% of the world’s production facilities, but it will inevitably decline – the country simply will not have enough labor,” says the demographic and Fusyan from the University of Wisconsin.

The problem is exacerbated by the attitude of young people: the generation born between 1960 and 1980, eagerly worked in factories, and the current young Chinese do not want such life.

Immigration could be a solution, but the Chinese authorities, which value cultural homogeneity, are in no hurry to “open the country”, the media writes. Instead, the bet is on automation and robots, but it helps little in the service sector.

Even if the business does not feel a scarcity today, this problem will become obvious in 5-10 years. If China’s production capacities are over too fast, other countries simply do not have time to replace them, which will lead to an increase in prices for goods like iPhone and Nike, it is also referred to in the material.

For China, the consequences will be much more serious – it will be a challenge for economics, politics, society, culture and national security.

Other news about ChinaEarlier, UNIAN reported that Trump has declared new 100% duties on Chinese goods. According to him, China took a “extremely aggressive position in the field of trade” when he warned the countries of the world about the introduction of large -scale export control for almost all products produced in the Middle Kingdom.

In addition, we told that China, in turn, got one of the main levers of pressure on the United States. Beijing plans to apply new restrictions that, if introduced, can prevent the creation of supplies of rare earth elements bypassing China.

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