“For the Russian dictator, the end of the war against Ukraine without achieving its basic political goals would be equivalent to defeat.”, – WRITE: www.unian.ua
For the Russian dictator, the end of the war against Ukraine without achieving its basic political goals would be equivalent to defeat.
Lawrence D. Friedman explained why Putin may not agree to the ceasefire in Ukraine / UNIAN collage, photo 93 OMBR Cold Yar, screenshotNot so long ago, the President of the United States of America Donald Trump proposed Russian dictator Vladimir Putin quite “attractive” conditions of ceasefire in the war of the Russian Federation against Ukraine. The pause would not only allow the invaders to recover, but it could also lead to the removal of some sanctions and gave a chance to normalize Moscow’s relations with Washington.
About it in the material for Foreign Affairs writes Honorary Professor of Military Studies of the Royal College of London, political scientist Lawrence D. Friedman. In his opinion, the ruler of the Russian Federation may have several reasons for not to agree to the ceasefire.
“First, there is no more important question to him than Ukraine. The provision that this country can never be truly independent of Russia is important for his inheritance. In addition, he does not consider war in which he cannot win. Despite the extremely slow progress of Russian troops in the last 18 months It will simply be crushed by Russian force, “Friedman writes.
The professor also suggested that Putin considers the cessation of fire along the current front line “unstable in nature.” He noted that if Russia retains control over those Ukrainian territories that holds it now, “it will remain with an economically inactive, detracting, damaged piece of Ukraine, which will need to be intensively protected.” At the same time, a long border with Ukraine of Russia would need to be intensified, Friedman adds.
According to the author, for the Russian dictator the end of the war against Ukraine without achieving its basic political goals would be equivalent to defeat. In addition, such a scenario would have caused a profound annoyance of the patriotic, ultranationalist bloc, which he cultivated and brought up during the war.
“A more moderate Russian elite may have felt a relief from such a result, but given that it has received little for such expensive efforts, it would still be waiting for a dangerous pay.
But these are not the only significant motives that Putin can avoid agreements. In particular, in the event of such events, he would have lost his face in front of his key partners – China, Iran and North Korea – as well as in those countries of the “global majority”, which he sought to impress and even lead them.
In addition, the dictator he convinced Russia that it is leading a long confrontation with the West, and the adoption of even a temporary truce in Ukraine “can encourage his opponents in NATO,” the author writes.
“They can try to use any sign of weakness. In addition, Putin knows that any weakening of sanctions that will come with the ceasefire will be limited and conditional. Even if Trump was more generous, European Union and the United Kingdom, most likely, will resist the way. Slowing up unstable economy, many Western companies and investors will not hurry to return, ” – notes the professor.
Therefore, he said, for Russia, the danger of losing is as great as the benefits of victory.
“If Putin believed that Trump could act in such a way that it would make Russia more likely, strengthening sanctions or expanding Ukraine’s military support, he might have been inclined to treat his proposals more seriously. Instead, the perspective that Trump would stop Ukraine’s support.
War in Ukraine: It is worth knowingPresident Volodymyr Zelenskyy has appointed a new commander of the Land Forces of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. He became Gennady Shapovalov. He was the commander of the operational command of the South.
Meanwhile, the US Senate has postponed to severe sanctions against Russia. It happened against the background of exacerbation of the situation in the Middle East. The document was considered to be postponed by at least July.
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