Belarus and the impersonator of the president

Oleksandr Lukashenko was predicted to “win” in early presidential elections in Belarus. At the same time, it was not worth expecting any democratic opposition movements within the country.

All the largest active medium has either immigrated or is sitting. That is, there are no driving forces capable of opposing the regime publicly, that is, of taking direct actions. Lukashenko used such repressive mechanisms that it is impossible to talk about a “corridor of opportunities” for any opposition forces. There is no such thing. There are under-the-carpet battles of various interest groups around Lukashenka (more pro-Russian and less pro-Russian), but this is an interspecies struggle, not opposition to his political regime.

Unfortunately, the Belarusian opposition in the diaspora, in emigration, is also in a difficult situation. Despite all efforts, Svitlana Tykhanovska did not become the general leader of the opposition, who would be able to unite everyone. There is a strong lack of influence on the opposition environment as such.

I don’t want to interfere in the affairs of the Belarusian opposition, but now they look like a “dreary group” that is unable to create an effective mechanism of interaction.

Yes, there were several approaches to the creation of emigration centers that were supposed to take over the key coordination of the activities of the opposition movements, there were even announcements about it, but everything rested on the ambitions of certain groups or certain politicians…

In the end, on the day of voting in the so-called presidential elections in Belarus, reports (most likely fake) began to appear on social networks that Tsykhanouska was taking on the authority of the opposition leader. And, frankly, this technical throw is on good ground… Therefore, it would be advisable for the Belarusian opposition to review its statuses, to decide on a new form of interaction and coordination. But so far I see quite weak efforts.

As for the reaction of others to Lukashenka’s “elections”, the head of EU diplomacy, Kaya Callas, called them an insult to democracy. But it was not possible to agree on the joint statement of the EU countries regarding the non-recognition of the results of this “expression of will”, because we all saw how this decision was blocked by Hungary. Now there is no official position, a single voice of the EU. There is a position of individual politicians and individual countries.

So, will there be any new sanctions against the Lukashenko regime? – I doubt it. Will there be political conclusions regarding contacts with the Lukashenko regime, political dialogue? – I also doubt it. Will this add advantages to Lukashenka himself in possible participation in the negotiation process between Ukraine and Russia? – It is also doubtful.

What can it be? We would very much like to hear from both European politicians and Kyiv about the recognition of the opposition government or the opposition government center of the Republic of Belarus, which would act from abroad as an alternative to Lukashenka.

For example, it could, at least, issue documents, identity cards, which would be recognized on the territory of the European Union.

Ukraine and the EU are interested in the fact that the opposition of Belarus is structured, that it has a single voice, that it is a powerful environment that would represent the interests of Belarusians who do not agree with the Lukashenko regime. It does not necessarily have to be an association led by Tykhanovskaya. But it should be interaction and recognition of the future of the new Belarusian state center by European countries, establishing relations with them not only at the level of consultations and meetings for selfies, but also certain actions.

As for Lukashenka, no matter how much he shouts that he is legitimate, in fact he is not. He is the self-appointed “president” of Belarus. And there must be a weighted position on the condemnation of what he calls voting. After all, we understand that democratic procedures were not followed, that it is difficult to even call it a vote. This is a complete simulation of the procedure even without simulation of selection.

Vitaly Kulyk, director of the Center for the Study of Civil Society Problems

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