Why should I be surprised? For example, the negative issue of our column. Last week, it turned positive for the fourth time in a row. Yes, they closed at a purely symbolic +230 UAH, but thanks to this, the profit for the last 4 rounds was brought to +15,090, subject to a bet of UAH 1,000 per event. We do not go into the red even on bad weekends – a good sign. The task for the new round is similar.
24.10. Real Sociedad – Sevilla, Corners: ITB1(5.5), cf. 1.66
For the newbies: Corners are relatively easy to predict in La Liga. It rarely happens here that it is not obvious who will spend the whole match in attacks. For example, Sevilla have won their last 2 matches with less than 40% possession and lost their last 2 with 58+% possession: how should they play away from home to achieve a positive result? Well, obviously: mostly without the ball. At the same time, “Sociedad” is in the top 4 teams of the LL both in terms of shots in home matches and in terms of possession. He will dominate. Well, corner serves, of course, too: on average, in this arena this season, he performs a crazy 8.75 per 90 minutes! “Sociedad” had 5+ corners in 4 out of 4 home matches of the season, 6+ – in 3 out of 4. “Sevilla” allowed 10+ (!) corners in most of their away matches. Even in the arenas of the more modest “Girona” and “Rayo”.
25.10. Girona – Oviedo, ITB1(1.5), cf. 1.96
Spoiler alert: there will be a lot of betting on goals today, not against them. Why? Because the last round of La Liga was the least effective in the season. Only 20 goals were scored in 10 matches. Before that, 6 out of 8 scored at least 26, so it is not difficult to assume that we will see more accurate shots on goal this week. For example, from “Girona”. She had a bad start to the season, but in the last 4 rounds she lost only once, and that was to “Barcelona” with a decisive missed on 90+3. “Oviedo” is a team without a squad, which reached the LL only because of Segunda’s playoff sieve. Lost 6 out of 8 first matches in the Premier League. Changed the coach during the break for national team matches – and it got even worse. Last week, the team allowed Espanyol to create 4.5 xG moments near their own goal (0:2). And it’s at home. “Girona” can fail here as a whole, but its attack is unlikely.
25.10. Espanyol – Elche, Both will score, cf. 1.9
The match against Oviedo really helped a lot, but still: Espanyol’s attack is currently #3 in La Liga this season in expected goals scored. Only “Real” and “Barcelona” are better, and in general, all the others are worse. What did the coach of the Catalans do with his wards in the summer? Mystery. But their game is really going. In the current season, Espanyol scored in 5 out of 5 home matches, so it is unlikely that they will not do it for the first time in a duel with a newcomer to the league. “Elche” is cool because it plays modern football with dominance over its opponents. That’s why it kills. And misses due to the lack of individual class among football players. So it turns out that in 6 out of 9 rounds, the passage was carried out according to our rate. He did not distinguish himself only in the goal of “Athletic” – a team at the level of the Champions League. “Espanyola” must cope with the defense. Moreover, the locals themselves have already missed 3 home matches in a row at least twice.
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25.10. Athletic – Getafe, 1X+TM2.5, cf. 1.6
And here we will play TM. Williams is back – great joy for Bilbao. Before his loss, there were 3 victories in a row, without him – none in the first 6 calendar matches. Life will be better with Niko. But there are a couple of nuances. The first: the Spaniard is out of shape. The second: his older brother was injured last week, and now he is questionable for the match. And here is a bus, against which such individually strong football players must decide. “Getafe” misses as many as 4 weeks in a row, but by a goal or two. “Real” almost stopped last time (0:1). In the previous season, he also conceded only a goal in this arena (1:1). “Atletik” will not score much. But he will not miss 2+, because during the entire last season, Getafe scored a total of only 3 goals in the stadiums of the top-7 teams, in each case – a maximum of 1. The bet played in the last 3 personal meetings of the teams, on this field – in 3 out of 4.
25.10. Valencia – Villarreal, K1 will score 1-2 goals, cf. 1.58
I don’t want to play for Villarreal after the European Cup week: often teams are disappointing in such cases. That’s why we ship purely to “Valencia”. There is a reason: the team is convincing on its own field. If away, “bats” won twice in a year and a half, then at home – a couple of times in the last month. Feel the difference, so to speak. They scored here in 9 of the last 10 matches, including 4 of the last matches. Last season, even “Real” and “Barcelona” missed here, now – “Atletico” and “Sociedad”, for example. In the previous championship, Villarreal conceded the most among the top-6 clubs, in 17 out of 19 matches away from home. After playing in the Champions League, he will not play for zero either. But they won’t miss much: in 23 of the last 25 away matches, LL allowed their opponents to score a maximum of twice. One of the two exceptions is the match against Real Madrid in Madrid.
26.10. Mallorca – Levante, Both will score, cf. 1.9
Levante’s goal difference in 9 rounds is 13:17. Among the clubs with 7+ goals scored, they have the most goals conceded, among the teams with 15+ goals scored, they have the most own goals. In short, effective. Levante also had a deficit of 2.5 goals in the attack – it should have played even brighter matches. It is obvious that in his case you have to bet on goals. Will miss because he has a leaky defense and only 2 clean sheets (1 of them against a rookie like himself) this season. He will score, because he did it in 4 out of 4 matches against teams ranked 10 and below. Yes, “Mallorca” wants and loves to play from the defense, but while it is floundering, it is necessary to attack. Therefore, she scored and conceded in 6 of her last 7 matches. By the way, this is a duel between potential underdogs – both will play for victory, but with problematic defenses. This is to the heads.
26.10. Real Madrid – Barcelona, Corners: ТМ10.5, cf. 1.9
I will not get into the basis of the El Clasico line: there is a clear work of the bookmaker. But you can play on the corners. Myth: Top teams always serve a lot of corners. It always depends primarily on the style. For example, the champion “Napoli” Conte performed fewer corners than the crisis “Milan”. So, Flick does not bet on corners. His team often has a lot of them, because they simply attack a lot, but for him, serving from the flag is far from the most important component of the game. Last season at the Bernabeu in the LL, “Barcelona” completed only 3. And “Real” Alonso is so generally in the top 5 Primera from the end for corners in their matches. On average, there are only 8.44 of them here, all domestic ones – through TM9.5 according to the indicator. “Re al” Khabi prepares his own attacks for a long time and does not want to allow others – that’s why he rolls TMs for corners. Can arrange another one.
26.10. Real Madrid – Barcelona, Mbappe TB1.5, cf. 3.6
Risk? Certainly. But the game is worth the candle. Kylian received a score of 7.72 from Whossored against Juventus (1:0). And all would be fine, but he didn’t even score! It was just so useful that it was still marked by the portal. 5 shots and as many as 7 passes under the shots of partners. Mbappe is at his best, so to imagine his “silence” for the second match in a row after a streak of 11 matches with goals is difficult. He had a double and a hat-trick in the stretch. In the last 3 matches against “Barcelona” he scored, in one of them – as many as three times. “Real” plays at home and looks more confident at the start of the season. “Barcelona” misses everyone, because they cannot cope with the departure of Martinez and the injury of Garcia. “Levante” and “Seville” each scored 2 before the break! Mbappe will destroy this problematic defensive line with jerks behind. The only question is how many will score.
26.10. Osasuna – Celta, K2 will score 1-2 goals, cf. 1.6
“Osasuna” will not miss much at home. In 3 out of 4 matches of the season here, her opponents did not score even by 1 goal, judging by the xG indicator. During the entire previous draw, “Osasuna” missed 3+ here only once. Even “Real” and “Barcelona” did not celebrate so much in this arena. Therefore, “Celta” will not be able to. But to score the ball is completely. She has 0 wins in 9 rounds of La Liga, but at the same time she is out of the relegation zone – it is telling. As many as 7 times ended the matches in a draw. Just not lucky. And, what is important, the defense fails, not the attack: “Celta” does not leave the field without scoring a goal in 8 rounds in a row. And every time it’s exactly a ball. During the season, the team has already upset even “Stuttgart” and “Nice”, so they will pick up the key to Osasuna’s goal in 90 minutes.
26.10. Rayo Vallecano – Alaves, H2, cf. 1.64
“Alavés” is a team with a modest composition. Such a person must fight for survival. Instead, it is in the top 10 of the LL table right now. How so? Because the team is in top form. “Alavés” like no other depends on the physical training of football players. She seems to be at her best right now. That is why the team has only 3 defeats in the season, 2 out of 3 – to clubs in the first half of the table. Even at a long distance, in the entire previous draw, Alaves lost only 33% of their matches to clubs outside the top 7 – this is an extremely unyielding team. Especially now. Rayo dominates the field, plays combinations, etc., but this is LL: the one who wins more power duels often wins here. Therefore, “Rayo” already lost to “Osasuna”, and “Alavés” already beat “Elche” in the season. A bet on a team in uniform and pragmatism.
26.10. Rayo Vallecano – Alaves, Corners: ITB2(3.5), cf. 1.55
I can only repeat: Alaves is running well. If you win duels like on a conveyor belt, you will have corners. Even if you are a bus. Because he threw himself forward, fought – the rider won, so he was already in someone else’s third. “Alavés” is taking more corners this season than “Real” so far. We are talking about a crazy 6.44 per match. Ok, away from home – less, but even there it’s almost 6 – and we only need 4. “Alavés” scored the required ITB according to the statistical indicator in 7 out of 9 rounds. Even in Bilbao 6 performed. “Rayo” likes to dominate, but with players almost fighting for survival, it cannot completely avoid corners. 6 out of 9 of his opponents in the season were able to perform 4+ at his goal, and on this field – in general, everyone who just arrived. The bookmaker gave too low ITB for corners on “Alavés” – we use it.
27.10. Betis – Atletico, TB3, cf. 2.3
You can afford to take risks. “Atletico” is as productive as ever. Here a week ago played 1:0, like in the good old days, but scored more than 3 expected goals and conceded. That is, the match had to become a horse race. In the championship, “Atletico” already finished matches with scores of 3:2 and 5:2. TVs fly by far from every week, but pay attention to the results in the Champions League, where the opponents are stronger and there is no opportunity to dry: 2:3, 5:1, 0:4. Another 5:2 with “Real”, last season – 2:2 with Madrid and 4:4 with “Barcelona”. Atlético scores and concedes a lot in big matches. The game with “Betis” is a big one, because they are a finalist of the LC, a member of the LE, a contender for a ticket to the Champions League. And he is on a streak of 6 matches with TB2.5 breakthroughs in the LL. Three times in the season he already played with a score of 2:2. Can organize a goal show. “Atletico” will take part.
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Source: sport.ua