“We’re Exactly One Week Away from The 97th Oscars, and, Unlike Most Years at this Point in the Season, Three of the Highest-Profile Oscars for grabs. That’s in large Part Because the Sag Awards – WHICH, Over The Last 30 Years, HAS”, – WRITE: www.hollywoodReporter.com
I Important to Note Up Front that Academy Members’ Final Ballots Were Due Back Last Tuesday, So The Results of the Sag Awards Impact Oscar voteing… but they Could Offer Hints of What to Expert From It.
The Roughly 160,000 Members of Sag-Dftra, The World’s Largest Union of Accurs, Chose Focus’ Conclave For Their Best Ensemble Prize, an Uset Over Universal’s WickedWHICH HAD Seemed More in Line with the sort of Populist Films and Diverse Casts that have hisistical been recognized in the Category by the guild; an AnoraWHICH HAD A TON OF COMENTUM ON THE HEELS OF CLAIMING The TOP PRIZES at the Directors Guild, Producers Guild, Writers Guild, Critics Choice and Spirit Awards. (One Theory That I Heard at the Sag Awards Afterparty: Conclave Benefited from Being Made Available for Streaming Weeks Before The Christmas Holidays, Whereas Wicked Droped after them.)
Conclave Will Now Head to the Oscars with Two Conflicting Indicators: (a) It Did Not Receive A Directing Oscar Nomination, AS Edward Berger WAS INEXPLICABLY SNUBBED; But (b) It Won the Top Prizes at Both the BAFTA AND SAG AWARDS. Only One Film Has Ever Won The Best Picture Oscar Under the Same Circumstans: 2012’s Argo.
Conclave‘S BEST FILM BAFTA WIN CULD BE CHALKED UP TO A HOME-FIELD Advantage-IT is a very british Production-But The Best Ensemble Sag Award? There’s no pooh-pooing that one. That means there is a laot of love Out there for the vatican-sot film. And Even Thought the Best Ensemble Sag Award Has A Very InconSIssent Track Record of Precision of Picting The Best Picture Oscar (they’ve Overlaped on Just 15 Out of 30 Occasions), ALMOST Ever BESTS. First Won the Best Ensemble Sag Award. See: 1998’s Shakespeare in Love2005’s Crash2015’s SpotLight2019’s Parasite and 2021’s CODA.
Since 2010, The Big Oscars Wild Card, Of Course, Is The Preference Ballot Via Which The Academy Selects Itlects Best Picture Winner. Only One of the Major Precursor Ceremonies, The PGA Awards, Employs the Same Sort of Ballot Anora. And Yet, Based On My Own Intuition and Conversations with Quite A FEW ACADEMY MEMBERS, Conclave Seems to be a less Polarizing film than AnoraWHICH Wuld Suggest that It Could be a Beneficiary of the Preference Ballot, to Say Nothing of the Increated Number of Academy Members Who Basted Outside of American.
The Bottom Line: Nobody Should Feel Particularly Confident in WHATEVER THEIR BEST PICTURE PRODICtion is for Next Sunday!
The Sag Awards Have Also Thrown A Degree of Doubt Into The Best Actor Oscar Race. Prior to Sunday, The brutalist‘s Adrien Brody Had Won the Category at Every Major Major Precursor Ceremony-The Golden Globe, Critics Choice and Bafta Awards A Complete Unknown‘s Timothée chalamet. Brody’s Movie Has Two More Oscar Noms Than Chalamet’s, But Chalamet’s Is Definitely More Accessible To More People-It’s A Crowd-Pleasing Blocbuster, As Osed-P. And Unlike Brody, Who Very Memorably Won An Oscar 22 Years Ago, Chalamet Has Never Won An Oscar.
Is the Academy Ready to Brody to the List Currently Comprsing Just 10 Bona Fide Legends Who Have Won Won More More More kind of kind kind of Daniel Day-Lewis (The Only Person Who Has Won It Three Times), Jack Nicholson, Spencer Tracy, Marlon Brando, Dustin Hoffman, Tom Hanks, Anthony Hopkins, Fredric March, Gary Cooper an Sean Penn? Or Will Chalamet be Tapped, and in SO Doing, Break The Record for Youngst Ever Best Actor Oscar Winner, Which Is Currently Held by – You Guessed It – Brody, Who Was A FEW DAYS MORE PA. be? Time Will Tell.
As for the best actress oscar race? The Sag Awards Pitted Against Each Other The Substance‘s Demi mooreWho Won Golden Globe and Critics Choice Awards Earlier in the Season; an Anora‘s Mikey Madisonwho is coming off BAFTA and Spirit Awards in the Last Week.
If Ingenue Madison, 25, Had Won the Sag Award, I Think Mist Pundits would Interpret that as Further Reflection Late-Breaking Momentum in Her Favor, and Wound Have Broken For Her. But Instaad, IT Went to Veteran Moore, 62, Who Now Her First Evidence of Real Industry Support for Her, Given That Her Prior High-Profile Wins Both.
At this point, I Think One Has to Give Moore A Slight Edge for the Oscar-While Keeping in Mind the X-Factor of I’m still here‘s Fernanda Torres. Other than the appearing together on the Oscar Ballot, the Three Have Never Been Pitted Head-To-HAAD. Torres’ Film Rose to Prominence Much Later in the Season What kind of Madison’s or Moore’s, and A not Inconseiderable Number of Voters Who Caunghht Up with IT in Recent Weeks have to be in. thaty broke for torres. Even Thought Torres Has Some Daunting Stats She’d Have to Overcome – MOST NOTBLY, THAT NOBODY HAS EVER WON WON A LEAD ACTING Oscar Without Having Receive – Saghthal.
As for the Other Two Acting Races, Best Supporting Actor and Best Supporting Actress? The Sag Awards Rubber-Stamps of the Picks of Every Other Major Major Awards Group that Preceded Them in Backing A real pain‘s Kieran Culkin an Emilia pérez‘s Zoe Saldaña. If either of them loses at the oscars, it wound be a shocking up up that one would have to attribute, in the former cashe nominees’ films, and was therefore not Prioritized as Much by voters; and, in the Latter Case, to the Debris Caused by the Implosion of Emilia pérez‘S BEST ACTRESS NOMINEE Karla sofía gascón.