Oscar Predictions via Feinberg Forecast: Scott’s End-of-2025 Rankings and Analysis for All Categories

FYI A number of films have had strong showings since our last update: Netflix’s Train Dreams made the AFI top 10 and landed best picture Critics Choice and Spirit noms (it looks likely to win the latter); Neon’s Sirāt showed up on five Oscar shortlists (a tally bested by only Warners’ SinnersUniversal’s Wicked: For Good and Netflix’s Frankenstein); Focus’ Bugonia and Sony Classics’ Blue Moon landed best pic (musical/comedy) Golden Globe noms, with the former also making the AFI top 10; and Janus’ Peter Hujar’s Day cracked the top five for both the best feature Spirit Award and the USC Scripter Award.

But let’s be honest, almost all indications are that Warners’ One Battle After Another is way out in front of the rest of the field. Since our last update, it was awarded the top prizes of the most prestigious groups of LA and New York film critics, as well as the NBR and the Gothams, and it also landed the most Golden Globe noms and the second-most Critics Choice noms of all films. There are sizable bases of support for several other contenders — Hamnet, Sinners, Marty Supreme, Sentimental Value and Frankenstein all seem like slam-dunk best picture nominees, too — and there are still 80-plus days until the Oscars. But this is starting to feel like an Oppenheimer-esque runaway train.

Frontrunners
1. One Battle After Another (Warner Bros.)
2. Hamnet (Focus)
3. Sinners (Warner Bros.)
4. Marty Supreme (A24)
5. Sentimental Value (Neon)
6. Frankenstein (Netflix)
7. Train Dreams (Netflix)
8. Wicked: For Good (Universal)
9. Avatar: Fire and Ash (20th Century)
10. Sirāt (Neon)

Major Threats
11. It Was Just An Accident (Neon)
12. F1 (Apple/Warner Bros.)
13. Jay Kelly (Netflix)
14. The Secret Agent (Neon)
15. Bugonia (Focus)

Possibilities
16. No Other Choice (Neon)
17. Nouvelle Vague (Netflix)
18. A House of Dynamite (Netflix)
19. Nuremberg (Sony Classics)
20. Weapons (Warner Bros.)

Long Shots
21. Song Sung Blue (Focus)
22. Rental Family (Searchlight)
23. Hedda (Amazon/MGM)
24. Blue Moon (Sony Classics)
25. Peter Hujar’s Day (Janus)

FYI Paul Thomas Anderson, the presumptive Oscar frontrunner for One Battle After Anotherheld serve by landing Globe and Critics Choice noms and winning LAFCA and NBR prizes. But It Was Just an Accident‘s Jafar Panahi has made significant inroads in the wake of the Dec. 1 announcement that Iran sentenced him to prison in absentia for making his film, which does not reflect well on the country — he has since garnered a Globe nom and NYFCC and Gotham wins for best director; plus his film made the best international feature Oscar shortlist, having been submitted by Francefrom which it derived financing, because Iran wanted nothing to do with it.

Meanwhile, Critics Choice and Golden Globe voters allocated five of their respective six best director slots to the same filmmakers: PTA, SinnersRyan Coogler, Frankenstein‘s Guillermo del Toro, Sentimental Value’s Joachim Trier and Hamnet’s Chloe Zhao. Stipulating that both groups are comprised of journalists, and that journalists are not represented in the Academy, that’s still pretty noteworthy. (The sixth Globe nom went to Panahi, as mentioned above, while the sixth Critics Choice nom went to Marty Supreme‘s Josh Safdie.)

The wild card is James Cameron, whose Avatar: Fire and Ash is entering the race very late in the game. Cameron won this category’s Oscar for Titanic 28 years ago and he must have come damn close to winning it again for the first time Avatar 16 years ago, but he was not even nominated for it for Avatar: The Way of Water three years ago. I doubt that any filmmaker had more of a directorial challenge this year than he did, but are members of the Academy’s directors branch beginning to take his work for granted and/or lose interest in the world of Avatar? We’ll see.

Frontrunners
1. Paul Thomas Anderson for One Battle After Another (Warner Bros.)
2. Ryan Coogler for Sinners (Warner Bros.)
3. Chloé Zhao for Hamnet (Focus)
4. Joachim Trier for Sentimental Value (Neon)
5. Guillermo del Toro for Frankenstein (Netflix) — podcast 1 and 2

Major Threats
6. Jafar Panahi for It Was Just an Accident (Neon) is a podcast
7. Josh Safdie for Marty Supreme (A24)
8. James Cameron for Avatar: Fire and Ash (20th Century)
9. Clint Bentley for Train Dreams (Netflix)
10. Kleber Mendonça Filho for The Secret Agent (Neon)
11. Park Chan-wook for No Other Choice (Neon)

Possibilities
12. Yorgos Lanthimos for Bugonia (Focus)
13. Noah Baumbach for Jay Kelly (Netflix) is a podcast
14. Jon M. Chu for Wicked: For Good (Universal)
15. Kathryn Bigelow for A House of Dynamite (Netflix)
16. Richard Linklater for Nouvelle Vague (Netflix) is a podcast

Long Shots
17. Zach Cregger for Weapons (Warner Bros.)
18. Gus Van Sant for Dead Man’s Wire (Row K) is a podcast
19. Nia DaCosta for Hedda (Amazon/MGM)
20. Ira Sachs for Peter Hujar’s Day (Janus)
21. Eva Victor for Sorry, Baby (A24)

FYI Best actor honors went from the NBR to One Battle After Another‘s Leonardo DiCaprio, from the New York film critics to The Secret Agent‘s Wagner Moura, and from the LA film critics to Blue Moon‘s Ethan Hawke. DiCaprio, Moura and Hawke were also nominated for both Globe and Critics Choice awards, as well Marty Supreme‘s Timothee Chalamet, Train Dreams‘ Joel Edgerton and Sinners‘ Michael B. Jordan. Those are certainly notable showings — but I would just caution that only journalists determined those outcomes, and no journalists are represented in the Academy’s acting branch, which solely determines the best actor Oscar noms.

I think that’s of particular concern regarding Hawke. Most journalists who vote for the aforementioned awards watch everything that’s considered a contender, whereas most actors who vote for the Oscars do not, and I think that the relatively low profile of Blue Moon means that Oscar voters may prioritize other titles. For what it’s worth, I’d like to urge them not to: Hawke is one of our greatest actors and his portrayal of Lorenz Hart is one of his greatest performances, albeit in a movie that is a bit like a filmed play.

Receiving “just” Globe noms were Jay Kelly‘s George Clooney, Frankenstein‘s Oscar Isaac, The Smashing Machine‘s Dwayne Johnson, No Other Choice‘s Lee Byung-hun, Bugonia‘s Jesse Plemons and Springsteen: Deliver Me From Nowhere‘s Jeremy Allen White. Edgerton also nabbed a Spirit Award nom.

Frontrunners
1. Wagner Moura for The Secret Agent (Neon)
2. Timothée Chalamet for Marty Supreme (A24) is a podcast
3. Leonardo DiCaprio for One Battle After Another (Warner Bros.)
4. Michael B. Jordan for Sinners (Warner Bros.) — podcast
5. Joel Edgerton for Train Dreams (Netflix) is a podcast

Major Threats
6. George Clooney for Jay Kelly (Netflix) — podcast 1 and 2
7. Ethan Hawke for Blue Moon (Sony Classics) is a podcast
8. Dwayne Johnson for The Smashing Machine (A24) is a podcast
9. Jeremy Allen White for Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (20th Century) is a podcast
10. Jesse Plemons for Bugonia (Focus) is a podcast

Possibilities
11. Oscar Isaac for Frankenstein (Netflix) is a podcast
12. Lee Byung-hun for No Other Choice (Neon)
13. Hugh Jackman for Song Sung Blue (Focus) is a podcast
14. Brendan Fraser for Rental Family (Searchlight) is a podcast
15. Daniel Day-Lewis for Anemone (Focus)

Long Shots
16. Channing Tatum for Roofman (Paramount) is a podcast
17. Will Arnett for Is This Thing On? (Searchlight)
18. Russell Crowe for Nuremberg (Sony Classics)
19. Ben Whishaw for Peter Hujar’s Day (Janus)
20. Bill Skarsgård for Dead Man’s Wire (Row K)

FYI Six actresses landed both Critics Choice and Golden Globe noms: Hamnet’s Jessie Buckley, If I Had Legs I’d Kick You‘s Rose Byrne, One Battle After Another‘s Chase Infiniti, Sentimental Value‘s Renate Reinsve, The Testament of Ann Lee‘s Amanda Seyfried and Bugonia‘s Emma Stone. (The other best actress Globe nominees, across the drama and musical/comedy categories, are Wicked: For Good‘s Cynthia Erivo, Song Sung Blue‘s Kate Hudson, Die My Love‘s Jennifer Lawrence, After the Hunt‘s Julia Roberts, Hedda‘s Tessa Thompson and Sorry, Baby‘s Eva Victor.)

Byrne, in particular, is on a roll of landing major recognition for her performance as a working mother of a sick child. In addition to the aforementioned Critics Choice and Golden Globe noms, the popular Aussie alum of Damages and Bridesmaids also was nominated for a Gotham Award and is nominated for a Spirit Award, and she was chosen as the year’s best actress by the NBR and both LA and New York’s top critics groups. With those sorts of accolades, she surely a slam-dunk for an Oscar nom, no?

Well, no. Two other actresses who, relatively recently, gave widely acclaimed performances in similarly dark comedies — Marianne Jean-Baptiste in Hard Truths last year and Sally Hawkins in Happy-Go-Lucky in 2008 — landed very similar accolades, but then were passed over by the Academy. I believe this happened — and could happen again — because journalists watch far more contenders than many Oscar voters do, and many Oscar voters turn off movies they find oppressively dark and/or with a main character they find unlikable. This could be an impediment for not only Byrne, but also Lawrence and Seyfried.

One other note: Infiniti was tapped for the NBR’s breakthrough performance prize, for which leading and supporting actors and actresses are considered.

Frontrunners
1. Jessie Buckley for Hamnet (Focus)
2. Renate Reinsve for Sentimental Value (Neon)
3. Chase Infiniti for One Battle After Another (Warner Bros.)
4. Emma Stone for Bugonia (Focus) is a podcast
5. Rose Byrne for If I Had Legs I’d Kick You (A24)

Major Threats
6. Cynthia Erivo for Wicked: For Good (Universal) is a podcast
7. Kate Hudson for Song Sung Blue (Focus) is a podcast
8. Jennifer Lawrence for Die My Love (Mubi) is a podcast
9. Amanda Seyfried for The Testament of Ann Lee (Searchlight) — podcast 1 and 2
10. Tessa Thompson for Hedda (Amazon/MGM)

Possibilities
11. Sydney Sweeney for Christy (Black Bear) — podcast 1 and 2
12. Julia Roberts for After the Hunt (Amazon/MGM) is a podcast
13. Lucy Liu for Rosemead (Vertical) is a podcast
14. Eva Victor for Sorry, Baby (A24)

Long Shots
15. Laura Dern for Is This Thing On? (Searchlight)
16. June Squibb for Eleanor the Great (Sony Classics)
17. Jodie Foster for A Private Life (Sony Classics) is a podcast
18. Claire Foy for H Is for Hawk (Roadside) is a podcast

FYI The Critics Choice and Golden Globe awards’ supporting actor categories were filled out with the exact same six people: One Battle After Another‘s Benicio del Toro and Sean Penn, Frankenstein‘s Jacob Elordi, Hamnet‘s Paul Mescal, Jay Kelly‘s Adam Sandler and Sentimental Value‘s Stellan Skarsgård. The five eventual Oscar nominees will almost certainly come from that pool of six people.

A few other things to consider: Del Toro, Elordi, Sandler and Skarsgård were also nominated for the Gotham Award. Skarsgård won the LA critics’ prize. The New York critics and the NBR went for del Toro, who now seems to have lapped his own co-star, Penn, in terms of overall momentum. Elordi is probably the least well known of the lot, and his actual face is never on screen. Sandler’s movie is on the least solid ground of anyone in this group, and he may lose some votes to his scene-stealing co-star, Billy Crudup.

Make of all of this what you will.

Frontrunners
1. Stellan Skarsgård for Sentimental Value (Neon) is a podcast
2. Benicio Del Toro for One Battle After Another (Warner Bros.) — podcast
3. Sean Penn for One Battle After Another (Warner Bros.) — podcast
4. Paul Mescal for Hamnet (Focus)
5. Jacob Elordi for Frankenstein (Netflix) is a podcast

Major Threats
6. Adam Sandler for Jay Kelly (Netflix) is a podcast
7. Billy Crudup for Jay Kelly (Netflix)
8. Miles Caton for Sinners (Warner Bros.)
9. Delroy Lindo for Sinners (Warner Bros.) — podcast

Possibilities
10. Jacobi Jupe for Hamnet (Focus)
11. William H. Macy for Train Dreams (Netflix)
12. Jeremy Strong for Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (20th Century) is a podcast
13. Kevin O’Leary for Marty Supreme (A24)

Long Shots
14. Mark Hamill for The Life of Chuck (Neon) is a podcast
15. Andrew Scott for Blue Moon (Sony Classics)
16. Ben Foster for Christy (Black Bear)
17. Alexander Skarsgård for Pillion (A24)

FYI The supporting actress field appears to have narrowed considerably, of late. Critics Choice and Golden Globe voters arrived at five of the same nominees: Wicked: For Good‘s Ariana Grande, Weapons‘ Amy Madigan, One Battle After Another‘s Teyana Taylor and Sentimental Value‘s Elle Fanning and Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas. The sixth Critics Choice nominee was SinnersWunmi Mosaku and the sixth Golden Globe nominee was The Smashing Machine‘s Emily Blunt. LAFCA and NBR went for Lilleaas, NYFCC went for Madigan and the Gotham Award went to Mosaku (over Lilleaas and Taylor, among others).

Still, one cannot totally count out the likes of Regina Hall, who has the least showy part of the three principal actresses in One Battle After Anotherbut is a well-liked veteran and might be able to ride her film’s coattails to a name; several Spirit Award nominees, Nouvelle Vague‘s Zoey Deutch, Roofman‘s Kirsten Dunst and Hedda‘s Nina Hoss; the Marty Supreme gals, Gwyneth Paltrow and Odessa A’zion, and the Train Dreams gals, Kerry Condon and Felicity Jones; and perhaps Avatar: Fire and Ash‘s Oona Chaplin, who, for my money, was the very best part of her late-breaking film.

Frontrunners
1. Ariana Grande for Wicked: For Good (Universal) is a podcast
2. Amy Madigan for Weapons (Warner Bros.) — podcast
3. Teyana Taylor for One Battle After Another (Warner Bros.)
4. Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas for Sentimental Value (Neon)
5. Elle Fanning for Sentimental Value (Neon) is a podcast

Major Threats
6. Regina Hall for One Battle After Another (Warner Bros.)
7. Emily Blunt for The Smashing Machine (A24) is a podcast
8. Wunmi Mosaku for Sinners (Warner Bros.)
9. Gwyneth Paltrow for Marty Supreme (A24)
10. Odessa A’zion for Marty Supreme (A24)

Possibilities
11. Oona Chaplin for Avatar: Fire and Ash (20th Century)
12. Zoey Deutch for Nouvelle Vague (Netflix) is a podcast
13. Nina Hoss for Hedda (Amazon/MGM)
14. Mia Goth for Frankenstein (Netflix)
15. Hailee Steinfeld for Sinners (Warner Bros.) — podcast

Long Shots
15. Jennifer Lopez for Kiss of the Spider Woman (Roadside) is a podcast
16. Kirsten Dunst for Roofman (Paramount) is a podcast
17. Emily Watson for Hamnet (Focus)
19. Kerry Condon for Train Dreams (Netflix)
20. Felicity Jones for Train Dreams (Netflix)

FYI Only two films received best adapted screenplay noms from Critics Choice, Golden Globe and USC Scripter voters: Hamnet and One Battle After Another. Frankenstein and Train Dreams were nominated by both Critics Choice and USC Scripter voters. Assume ng those four films are in for Oscar noms, as I suspect they are (Train Dreams also won the NBR’s prize), which adaptation is most likely to land the final slot in the category?

The fifth USC Scripter nom went to Peter Hujar’s Day (over the likes of Die My Love, Hedda, Mickey 17, Nuremberg, Springsteen: Deliver Me From Nowhere, Wicked: For Good and two very different Stephen King adaptations, The Life of Chuck and The Long Walk), which also led the Spirit Awards in overall noms (although, bizarrely, its screenplay wasn’t one of them). And the fifth and sixth Critics Choice noms went to two films that weren’t eligible for the Scripter: Bugoniawhich was ineligible because it was adapted from an earlier film, and No Other Choicewhich was ineligible because it’s a non-English-language film.

Those three films have to be taken very seriously. I’d also keep an eye on it Pillionwhich won the Gotham Award over No Other Choice, One Battle After Another and Train Dreamsamong others; and Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mysteryconsidering that both of the prior two installments of Rian Johnson’s Benoit Blanc franchise received screenplay noms.

Frontrunners
1. Hamnet (Focus) — Chloé Zhao
2. One Battle After Another (Warner Bros.) — Paul Thomas Anderson
3. Train Dreams (Netflix) — Clint Bentley & Greg Kwedar
4. Frankenstein (Netflix) – Guillermo del Toro – podcast 1 and 2
5. Bugonia (Focus) — Will Tracy

Major Threats
6. No Other Choice (Neon) — Park Chan-wook, Lee Ja-hye, Lee Kyoung-mi & Don McKellar
7. Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery (Netflix) – Rian Johnson – podcast
8. Peter Hujar’s Day (Janus) — Ira Sachs
9. Pillion (A24) — Harry Lighton
10. Hedda (Amazon/MGM) — Nia DaCosta
11. Springsteen: Deliver Me From Nowhere (20th Century) — Scott Cooper

Possibilities
12. The Smashing Machine (A24) — Benny Safdie
13. Avatar: Fire and Ash (20th Century) — James Cameron, Rick Jaffa & Amanda Silver
14. Wicked: For Good (Universal) — Dana Fox & Winnie Holzman
15. Nuremberg (Sony Classics) – James Vanderbilt
16. Die My Love (Mubi) — Alice Birch, Lynne Ramsay & Enda Walsh

Long Shots
17. The Life of Chuck (Neon) – Mike Flanagan
18. The Long Walk (Lionsgate) — JT Mollner
19. Nouvelle Vague (Netflix) — Holly Gent, Michèle Halberstadt, Laetitia Masson & Vincent Palmo
22. Ballad of a Small Player (Netflix) — Rowan Joffé
23. The Chronology of Water (The Forge) – Kristen Stewart – podcast

FYI There are some original scripts that everyone seems to be getting behind: Marty Supreme, Sinners and Sentimental Value received Critics Choice and Golden Globe noms. Marty Supreme also won the New York film critics’ prize, Sinners also won the NBR award, and It Was Just an Accident claimed both the Gotham Award and LA critics’ laurels. It’s going to be hard to displace any of those four titles from the Oscar lineup. But what of the fifth slot?

The safest bet remains Jay Kellya Critics Choice nominee, not least because co-writer Noah Baumbach has a long and solid track record with the Academy’s writers branch — he’s previously been nominated for 2005’s The Squid and the Whale2019’s Marriage Story and 2023’s Barbie. But don’t count out Eva Victor’s Sorry, Babywhich is coming on strong late in the game, having landed Critics Choice, Gotham and Spirit noms, and placed second in the LA critics’ voting. (Victor is also nominated for a Golden Globe for playing the lead in the film and was tapped by the NBR for their best directorial debut award and by the LA critics for their New Generation award.)

Other possibilities include, but are not limited to, Critics Choice nominee Weapons; Gotham nominees If I Had Legs I’d Kick You, The Secret Agent and Sound of Falling; and the utterly charming, Oscar-shortlisted Taiwanese film Left-Handed Girlwhich was co-written by the most recent winner of this award, Sean Baker. In a fair world, Dead Man’s Wire would also have a shot, but it has slipped under the radar for many voters.

Frontrunners
1. Sinners (Warner Bros.) — Ryan Coogler
2. Marty Supreme (A24) — Ronald Bronstein & Josh Safdie
3. Sentimental Value (Neon) — Joachim Trier & Eskil Vogt
4. It Was Just an Accident (Neon) — Jafar Panahi
5. Jay Kelly (Netflix) — Noah Baumbach & Emily Mortimer

Major Threats
6. Sorry, Baby (A24) — Eva Victor
7. Left-Handed Girl (Netflix) — Sean Baker & Shih-Ching Tsou — podcast (Baker)
8. Weapons (Warner Bros.) — Zach Cregger
9. The Secret Agent (Neon) — Kleber Mendonça Filho

Possibilities
10. If I Had Legs I’d Kick You (A24) — Mary Bronstein
11. Blue Moon (Sony Classics) — Robert Kaplow
12. A House of Dynamite (Netflix) — Noah Oppenheim
13. Rental Family (Searchlight) — Stephen Blahut & Hikari

Long Shots
14. Dead Man’s Wire (Row K) — Austin Kolodney
15. Roofman (Paramount) — Derek Cianfrance & Kirt Gunn
16. Is This Thing On? (Searchlight) — Will Arnett, Mark Chappell & Bradley Cooper
17. Materialists (A24) — Celine Song

FYI Members from all branches of the Academy were invited to help select 15 titles for the Oscar shortlist from 86 submissions (provided they met a minimum viewing requirement), and members from all branches are now invited to help pick five nominees from that shortlist (provided they attest that they have watched all 15 shortlisted titles).

The shortlist includes a film from Iran that was submitted by France (this year’s winner of the Cannes Film Festival’s Palme d’Or, It Was Just an Accident); Japan’s highest-grossing live-action film of all time, which Tom Cruise recently championed at an LA screening (Kokuho); three films about troubles in the Middle East (Tunisia’s The Voice of Hind RijabPalestine’s Palestine 36Jordan’s All That’s Left of You); and, for the first time ever, a film from Iraq (The President’s Cake).

The most glaring omissions from the shortlist were, to me, Belgium’s Young Mothers (Music Box), Poland’s Franz (Cohen Media Group) and three docs: Ukraine’s 2000 Meters to Andriivka (PBS), North Macedonia’s The Tale of Silyan (Nat Geo) and Denmark’s Mr. Nobody Against Putin (still seeking US distribution). 2000 Meters to Andriivka and Mr. Nobody Against Putin did, however, make it onto the best documentary feature Oscar shortlist.

It’s worth noting that Spain’s Sirāt appeared on five Oscar shortlists, more than any other non-English-language film; Brazil’s The Secret Agent was awarded both the New York and LA film critics groups’ prizes for best film not in the English language; It Was Just an Accident won the NBR Award and — over a field that included two other films that were eventually Oscar-shortlisted, South Korea’s No Other Choice and Germany’s Sound of Falling — the Gotham Award; Left-Handed Girl, The Secret AgentNorway’s Sentimental Value and Sirāt were included on the NBR’s (alphabetical) list of the top five international films; Argentina’s Bethlehem, It Was Just an Accident, Left-Handed Girl, No Other Choice, The Secret Agent and Sirāt received best foreign-language film Critics Choice noms; and All That’s Left of You, The Secret Agent and Sirāt received best international film Spirit Award noms.

Something to keep an eye on is how many of the final five slots end up going to Neon-distributed films. There is a very real chance that it could be all of them, given that they include the heavy-hitters It Was Just an Accident, No Other Choice, The Secret Agent, Sirāt and Sentimental Value. That would be something!

Frontrunners
1. Norway — Sentimental Value (Neon)
2. France — It Was Just an Accident (Neon)
3. Brazil — The Secret Agent (Neon)
4. Spain — Sirāt (Neon)
5. Tunisia — The Voice of Hind Rajab (Willa)

Major Threats
6. Taiwan — Left-Handed Girl (Netflix)
7. South Korea — No Other Choice (Neon)
8. Japan — Kokuho (GKIDS)
9. Iraq — The President’s Cake (Sony Classics)
10. Switzerland — Late Shift (Music box)

Possibilities
11. Germany — Sound of Falling (Mubi)
12. Jordan — All That’s Left of You (Watermelon/Visibility)
13. India — Homebound (still seeking US distribution)
14. Palestine — Palestine 36 (Watermelon)
15. Argentina — Bethlehem (Amazon)

FYI Members of the Academy’s documentary branch solely selected a shortlist of 15 doc features from a pool of 201 eligible titles, and will solely select five nominees from that shortlist. The shortlist’s most glaring omissions, in my estimation, were HBO’s My Mom Jayne, Mariska Hargitay‘s beautiful film about her relationship with her mother, the late movie star Jayne Mansfieldwhich had been embraced by numerous other groups, including the Producers Guild; Neon’s Orwell: 2+2=5which was directed by a past Oscar nominee Raoul Peck and skillfully connects the past to the present; and Nat Geo’s The Tale of Silyanwhich just days ago won the top prize of the International Documentary Association’s IDA Awards.

Netflix’s The Perfect Neighbor — a study of one particularly horrific invocation of Florida’s “Stand Your Ground” law, which was, for a time, the most-watched film of any sort on the streaming platform — remains the film to beat in this category. But keep a close eye on a five-and-a-half-hour film that has no US distributor at all, My Undesirable Friends: Part I — Last Air in Moscowa portrait of fearless independent journalists in Russia during the run-up to the war in Ukraine, which has tremendous late momentum in its favor. It has been vocally championed by virtually everyone who has seen it, from highly respected documentarians with films of their own on the shortlist (Oscar winner Laura Poitras of Netflix’s Cover-Up) to critics groups (both New York and LA’s top groups of film critics chose it as the year’s top doc, as did the Gotham Awards) to arts organizations (it’s up for the best doc Spirit Award). And yes, for those of you wondering, Part II is currently in the works.

Several other shortlisted docs also recently received other recognition. Cover-Up won the best doc NBR Award, while PBS’s 2000 Meters to Andriivka and Apple’s Come See Me in the Good Light made the group’s top five list; the Spirit Award nominations are also included Come See Me in the Good Light and The Perfect Neighbor; and Netflix’s Apocalypse in the Tropicsthe sequel to the Oscar-nominated 2019 film The Edge of Democracywon best production and best writing at the IDA Awards.

Frontrunners
1. The Perfect Neighbor (Netflix)
2. My Undesirable Friends: Part I – Last Air in Moscow (still seeking US distribution)
3. The Alabama Solution (HBO)
4. Apocalypse in the Tropics (Netflix)
5. 2000 Meters to Andriivka (PBS)

Major Threats
6. Cover-Up (Netflix)
7. Come See Me in the Good Light (Apple)
8. Seeds (still seeking US distribution)
9. Mr. Nobody Against Putin (still seeking US distribution)
10. Mistress Dispeller (Oscilloscope)

Possibilities
11. Holding Liat (still seeking US distribution)
12. Coexistence, My Ass! (still seeking US distribution)
13. Cutting Through Rocks (still seeking US distribution)
14. Folktales (Magnolia)
15. Yanuni (still seeking US distribution)

FYI The Academy’s animation branch marches to its own beat, so no precursor is a particularly reliable predictor. But it should nevertheless be noted that both Critics Choice and Golden Globe noms went to Neon’s ArcoDisney/Pixar’s ElioNetflix’s KPop Demon HuntersGKIDS’s Little Amélie or the Character of Rain and Disney’s Zootopia 2. (The other Critics Choice nominee was Netflix’s In Your Dreams and the other Golden Globe nominee was Sony’s Demon Slayer: Kimetsu no Yaiba – The Movie: Infinity Castle).

Moreover, the three highest-profile prizes that have already been awarded for animation each went to a different film: The New York critics went with KPop Demon Huntersthe LA critics went with Little Amélie or the Character of Rainand the NBR went with Arco. Zootopia 2meanwhile, is laughing all the way to the bank — it has grossed $1.27 billion worldwide, the second-most of any 2025 film, and a half-billion more than the year’s next highest-grossing animated film, Demon Slayer: Kimetsu no Yaiba – The Movie: Infinity Castle.

Frontrunners
1. KPop Demon Hunters (Netflix)
2. Arco (Neon)
3. Little Amélie or the Character of Rain (GKIDS)
4. Zootopia 2 (Disney)
5. Demon Slayer: Kimetsu no Yaiba – The Movie: Infinity Castle (Sony)

Major Threats
6. Elio (Disney/Pixar)
7. In Your Dreams (Netflix)

Possibilities
8. Fixed (Netflix)

Still to see
The Bad Guys 2 (Universal)
ChaO (GKIDS)
Dog Man (Universal)
Endless Cookie (Obscured)
The Legend of Hei 2 (GKIDS)
Lost in Starlight (Netflix)
A Magnificent Life (Sony Classics)
Scarlet (Sony Classics)
The SpongeBob Movie: Search for SquarePants (Paramount)
Stitch Head (Briarcliff)
The Twits (Netflix)

FYI Members of the Academy’s casting directors branch chose 10 films for this category’s inaugural shortlist and will solely determine this category’s five inaugural nominees after being offered the opportunity to view excerpts from the shortlisted films and pre-recorded interviews with their casting directors in LA and London on Jan. 9 and in New York on Jan. 10, 2026.

The Critics Choice Awards, which is also introducing a casting/ensemble category for the first time, nominated Hamnet, Marty Supreme, One Battle After Another, Sinners and Wicked: For Goodas well as a sixth film that did not make the Oscar shortlist, Jay Kelly. The casting award at the American Cinematheque’s Tribute to the Crafts went to Sinners.

Frontrunners
1. Sinners (Warner Bros.) — Francine Maisler
2. Marty Supreme (A24) — Jennifer Venditti
3. One Battle After Another (Warner Bros.) — Cassandra Kulukundis
4. Sirāt (Neon) — Nadia Acimi, Luís Bértolo & María Rodrigo
5. The Secret Agent (Neon) – Gabriel Domingues

Major Threats
7. Hamnet (Focus) — Nina Gold
5. Wicked: For Good (Universal) — Tiffany Little Canfield & Bernard Telsey
8. Weapons (Warner Bros.) — Allison Jones
9. Sentimental Value (Neon) – Yngvill Kolset Haga & Avy Kaufman
10. Frankenstein (Netflix) — Robin D. Cook

FYI Members of the Academy’s cinematography branch chose 16 films for this category’s shortlist and will solely determine the five nominees.

Precusor recognition has been largely split between Sinners and Train Dreams. Sinners was the pick of the New York critics and the NBR, meanwhile Train Dreams was the selection of the LA critics and for the American Cinematheque’s Tribute to the Crafts’ cinematography award, and landed a Spirit Award nom. Both films also received Critics Choice noms, as did F1, Frankenstein, Hamnet and One Battle After Another.

By the way, so much for the Camerimage Festival, which celebrates cinematography, helping to predict the best cinematography Oscar: This year’s first-place winner at the fest, the Swiss film Late Shiftdidn’t even make the shortlist; however, the runner-up, the German film Sound of Fallingdid.

Frontrunners
1. Sinners (Warner Bros.) — Autumn Durald Arkapaw
2. Train Dreams (Netflix) — Adolpho Veloso
3. Hamnet (Focus) — Lukasz Zal
4. One Battle After Another (Warner Bros.) — Michael Bauman
5. Frankenstein (Netflix) — Dan Laustsen

Major Threats
6. F1 (Apple) — Claudio Miranda
7. Marty Supreme (A24) — Darius Khondji
8. Nouvelle Vague (Netflix) — David Chambille
9. Sirât (Neon) — Mauro Herce

Possibilities
10. Sound of Falling (Mubi) — Fabian Gamper
11. Wicked: For Good (Universal) — Alice Brooks
12. Sentimental Value (Neon) — Kasper Tuxen
13. Ballad of a Small Player (Netflix) — James Friend

Long Shots
14. Bugonia (Focus) — Robbie Ryan
15. Die My Love (Mubi) — Seamus McGarvey
16. Song Sung Blue (Focus) — Amy Vincent

FYI This is one of the hardest Oscar categories to predict. There is no shortlist. And there are only a few precursors, none of which are particularly helpful.

Voters for the Costume Designers Guild Awards nominate work in three different areas, whereas there is no such distinction at the Oscars. (This year’s CDG nominees for work in contemporary film are Bugonia, F1, One Battle After Another; Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery and Weapons; for work in period films are Downton Abbey: The Grand Finale, Frankenstein, Hamnet, Hedda and Sinners; and for work in sci-fi/fantasy are Avatar: Fire and Ash, How to Train Your Dragon, thunderbolts*, Tron: Ares and Wicked: For Good.)

Critics Choice voters nominate six films, but frankly, don’t really know much about costume design. (Our picks this year were Frankenstein, Hamnet, Hedda, Kiss of the Spider Woman, Sinners and Wicked: For Good).

And then there’s the costume design award from the American Cinematheque’s Tribute to the Crafts. The winner of that was Hedda.

The one thing you can usually count on the Academy’s costume designers branch to do is to not nominate work on films that are set primarily in the present. Costumes tailored for the past, the future or an imagined world are far more likely to make their cut.

Frontrunners
1. Wicked: For Good (Universal) — Paul Tazewell
2. Sinners (Warner Bros.) — Ruth E. Carter (podcast)
3. Hedda (Amazon/MGM) — Lindsay Pugh
4. Hamnet (Focus) — Malgosia Turzanska
5. Frankenstein (Netflix) — Kate Hawley

Major Threats
6. Kiss of the Spider Woman (Roadside) — Colleen Atwood & Christine Cantella
7. Avatar: Fire and Ash (20th Century) — Deborah L. Scott
8. Kokuho (GKIDS) — Kumiko Ogawa
9. Marty Supreme (A24) — Miyako Bellizzi
10. One Battle After Another (Warner Bros.) — Colleen Atwood
11. The Testament of Ann Lee (Searchlight) — Małgorzata Karpiuk

Possibilities
12. How to Train Your Dragon (Universal) — Lindsay Pugh
13. Downton Abbey (Focus) — Anna Robbins
14. The Phoenician Scheme (Focus) — Milena Canonero
15. thunderbolts* (Disney) — Sanja Milkovic Hays
16. Tron: Ares (Disney) — Christine Bieselin Clark

Long Shots
17. The Fantastic Four: First Steps (Disney) — Alexandra Byrne
18. Nouvelle Vague (Netflix) — Pascaline Chavanne
19. The Secret Agent (Neon) — Rita Azevedo
20. F1 (Apple/Warner Bros.) — Julian Day
21. Song Sung Blue (Focus) — Ernesto Martinez

FYI Critics Choice nominations went to F1, A House of Dynamite, Marty Supreme, One Battle After Another, Sinners and the documentary A Perfect Neighbor. Spirit Award nominees included The Testament of Ann Lee and Warfare. And the LA film critics gave their prize to Marty Supremewith One Battle After Another finishing second.

Frontrunners
1. F1 (Apple/Warner Bros.) — Stephen Mirrione
2. One Battle After Another (Warner Bros.) — Andy Jurgensen
3. Sinners (Warner Bros.) — Michael Shawver
4. Marty Supreme (A24) — Ronald Bronstein & Josh Safdie
5. Hamnet (Focus) — Affonso Gonçalves & Chloé Zhao

Major Threats
6. A House of Dynamite (Netflix) — Kirk Baxter
7. Frankenstein (Netflix) — Evan Schiff
8. Wicked: For Good (Universal) — Myron Kerstein
9. Avatar: Fire and Ash (20th Century) — David Brenner, James Cameron, John Refoua & Stephen E. Rivkin
10. Sentimental Value (Neon) — Olivier Bugge Coutté

Possibilities
11. Sirāt (Neon) — Cristóbal Fernández
12. Bugonia (Focus) — Yorgos Mavropsaridis
13. Jay Kelly (Netflix) — Valerio Bonelli & Rachel Durance
14. Weapons (Warner Bros.) — Joe Murphy
15. The Perfect Neighbor (Netflix) — Viridiana Lieberman

Long Shots
16. No Other Choice (Neon) – Kim Sang-bum
17. The Secret Agent (Neon) — Matheus Farias & Eduardo Serrano
18. The Lost Bus (Apple) — Peter M. Dudgeon, William Goldenberg & Paul Rubell
19. Dead Man’s Wire (Row K) — Saar Klein
20. Warfare (A24) — Fin Oates

FYI Members of the Academy’s makeup artists and hairstylists branch solely selected 10 films for the shortlist and will solely pick five nominees from the shortlist after being offered the opportunity to view excerpts from the shortlisted films and interviews with the artists behind them on Jan. 10, 2026.

Critics Choice nominations went to Frankenstein, Sinners, The Smashing Machine and Wicked: For Good (as well as two films that did not make the Oscar shortlist, 28 Years Later and Weapons). Frankenstein won the American Cinematheque’s Tribute to the Crafts’ hair and makeup award.

Frontrunners
1. Frankenstein (Netflix)
2. The Smashing Machine (A24)
3. Sinners (Warner Bros.)
4. Wicked: For Good (Universal)
5. Kokuho (GKIDS)

Major Threats
6. Marty Supreme (A24)
7. Nuremberg (Sony Classics)
8. One Battle After Another (Warner Bros.)
9. The Alto Knights (Warner Bros.)
10. The Ugly Stepsister (still seeking US distribution)

FYI Members of the Academy’s music branch chose 20 scores for this category’s shortlist from 132 options and will solely determine the five nominees.

The Society of Composers and Lyricists, which includes many music branch members, nominated six scores from studio films and six scores from indie films for awards. All of its nominees for the former are also on the Oscar shortlist (Bugonia, Frankenstein, Hamnet, One Battle After Another, Sinners and Wicked: For Good), but the same is true of just one of its nominees for the latter (Train Dreams).

The Oscar shortlist also includes all five scores that received both Critics Choice and Golden Globe noms — F1, Frankenstein, Hamnet, One Battle After Another, Sinners — as well as the other Critics Choice nominee, Marty Supremeand the other Golden Globe nominee, Sirāt. Sinners also was the runner-up for the LA critics’ honor and won the American Cinematheque’s Tribute to the Crafts’ score award.

Finally, a word about the score of Sirātwhich is unlike any that has ever been nominated for an Oscar. Its French-born/Germany-resident composer, Kangding Ray, is a specialist in electronic, techno, underground, rave-type music, original pieces of which are performed both within and over the action of the film. It has been cool to see Ray’s work recognized not only by Globes voters, but also with prizes from the Cannes Film Festival and the LA film critics; and to see Sirāt shortlisted not just for the score Oscar, but also for the sound Oscar, given how closely Ray worked on integrating the score with the film’s overall soundscape. As Filmmaker magazine wrote of Sirāt“Few recent films have offered such an overwhelmingly immersive audiovisual experience.”

Frontrunners
Sinners (Warner Bros.) — Ludwig Göransson
One Battle After Another (Warner Bros.) — Johnny Greenwood
Frankenstein (Netflix) — Alexandre Desplat
Sirāt (Neon) – Kangding Ray
Jay Kelly (Netflix) — Nicholas Britell (podcast)

Major Threats
F1 (Apple/Warner Bros.) — Hans Zimmer (podcast)
Hamnet (Focus) — Max Richter
Avatar: Fire and Ash (20th Century) — Simon Franglen
Hedda (Amazon/MGM) — Hildur Guðnadóttir
Marty Supreme (A24) — Daniel Lopatin
A House of Dynamite (Netflix) — Volker Bertelmann
Train Dreams (Netflix) — Bryce Dessner
Tron: Ares (Disney) — Trent Reznor & Atticus Ross

Possibilities
Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery (Netflix) — Nathan Johnson
Wicked: For Good (Universal) — John Powell and Stephen Schwartz
Nuremberg (Sony Classics) – Brian Tyler
Bugonia (Focus) — Jerskin Fendrix
Captain America: Brave New World (Disney) — Laura Karpman
Diane Warren: Relentless (MasterClass) — Lesley Barber
Truth and Treason (Angel) — Aaron Zigman

FYI Members of the Academy’s music branch chose 15 songs for this category’s shortlist from 65 options and will solely determine five nominees. That’s great news for songwriters who branch members have long known and loved, as demonstrated by past recognition — among them Mark Ronson, Andrew Wyatt, Ludwig Göransson, Stephen Schwartz, Trent Reznor, Atticus Ross and especially Diane Warren, who the branch is poised to recognize with her ninth consecutive — and 17th overall — nomination in this category.

Warren was shortlisted this year for a song (“Dear Me”) from a little-seen documentary (MasterClass’ Diane Warren: Relentless), the score of which the branch is also shortlisted. Hers is but one of four shortlisted songs from docs: The others come from Come See Me in the Good Light (“Salt Then Sour Then Sweet”), Billy Idol Should Be Dead (“Dying to Live”) and Viva Verdi! (“Sweet Dreams of Joy”).

It will be interesting to see how the branch handles the two films that landed multiple songs on the shortlist this year: Sinnerswith “I Lied to You” and “Last Time (I Seen the Sun),” and Wicked: For Goodwith “The Girl in the Bubble” and “No Place Like Home.” At each of the last two Oscars, a single film — Barbie and Emilia Perez — wound up with two songs among the final five, including the eventual winner. But vote-splitting is also a possibility, which begs the question: Is F1which had three songs in the running for the shortlist, but got only one on the shortlist, “Drive,” actually in a better position to advance a song to the next round?

I’ll note that a bunch of the shortlisted tunes have been landing recognition elsewhere in recent days. The Society of Composers and Lyricists, which includes many music branch members, nominated six songs from dramatic or documentary films and six songs from comedy or musical films. Five of its six nominees for the former are also on the Oscar shortlist (“Dear Me,” “Drive,” “Last Time (I Seen the Sun),” “I Lied to You,” and “Salt Then Sour Then Sweet”), as are three of its nominees for the latter (“The Girl in the Bubble,” “No Place Like Home” and Oscar frontrunner/American Cinematheque’s Tribute to the Crafts song award honoree “Golden” from KPop Demon Hunters).

Meanwhile, Critics Choice and Golden Globe noms went to “Golden,” “The Girl in the Bubble” and “I Lied to You,” plus “Train Dreams” (Train Dreams). The other Globe noms went to “No Place Like Home” and “Dream as One” (Avatar: Fire and Ash), while the other Critics Choice noms went to “Drive” and a song that did not make the Oscar shortlist (“Clothed by the Sun” from The Testament of Ann Lee).

Finally, I’ll just point out that there are a Lot of big names who performed this year’s shortlisted songs in the films for which they are nominated — among them Sara Bareilles, Brandi Carlile, Billy Idol, Ariana Grande, Cynthia Erivo, Miley Cyrus, Ed Sheeran, Nine Inch Nails, Nick Cave and Ke$ha — as is the case almost every year, which is why I keep urging the Academy to rent out the Hollywood Bowl or the Greek for a night of performances of the shortlisted songs for members of the music branch, plus others. It would be one of the hottest tickets and coolest concerts of the year. Maybe in a couple of years, once the YouTube money kicks in, they will actually do this!

Frontrunners
1. “Golden” from KKPop Demon Hunters (Netflix) — EJAE and Mark Sonnenblick — listen
2. “I Lied to You” from Sinners (Warner Bros.) — Raphael Saadiq & Ludwig Göransson — listen
3. “Dear Me” from Diane Warren: Relentless (MasterClass) — Diane Warren (podcast) — listen
4. “Dream As One” from Avatar: Fire and Ash (20th Century) – Miley Cyrus (podcast), Simon Franglen, Mark Ronson (podcast) & Andrew Wyatt – listen
5. “Train Dreams” from Train Dreams (Netflix) — Nick Cave & Bryce Dessner — listen

Major Threats
6. “Highest 2 Lowest” from Highest 2 Lowest (A24) — Aiyana-Lee Anderson & Nicole Daciana Anderson — listen
7. “The Girl in the Bubble” from Wicked: For Good (Universal) — Stephen Schwartz — listen
8. “Salt Then Sour Then Sweet” from Come See Me In The Good Light (Apple) — Sara Bareilles, Brandi Carlile & Andrea Gibson — listen
9. “Last Time (I Seen the Sun)” from Sinners (Warner Bros.) — Miles Caton, Ludwig Göransson & Alice Smith — listen
10. “Drive” from F1 (Apple/Warner Bros.) — John Mayer, Ed Sheeran (podcast) & Blake Slatkin — listen

Possibilities
11. “No Place Like Home” from Wicked: For Good (Universal) — Stephen Schwartz — listen
12. “As Alive as You Need Me to Be” from Tron: Ares (Disney) — Trent Reznor & Atticus Ross — listen
13. “Dying to Live” from Billy Idol Should Be Dead (Fremantle) — Tommy English, Billy Idol, Joe Janiak, J. Ralph (podcast) & Steve Stevens (podcast) — listen
14. “Our Love” from The Ballad of Wallis Island (Focus) — Tom Basden — listen
15. “Sweet Dreams of Joy” from Viva Verdi! (still seeking US distribution) — Nicholas Pike — listen

FYI Critics Choice noms went to The Fantastic Four: First Steps, Frankenstein, Hamnet, Marty Supreme, Sinners and Wicked: For Good. The LA film critics gave their prize to Sinners (Frankenstein was the runner-up), while the American Cinematheque’s Tribute to the Crafts’ production design/set decoration/prop mater award went to Frankenstein.

Frontrunners
1. Sinners (Warner Bros.) — Hannah Beachler
2. Frankenstein (Netflix) — Tamara Deverell
3. Hamnet (Focus) – Fiona Crombie
4. Avatar: Fire and Ash (20th Century) — Dylan Cole & Ben Procter
5. Marty Supreme (A24) — Jack Fisk

Major Threats
6. One Battle After Another (Warner Bros.) — Florencia Martin
7. F1 (Apple/Warner Bros.) — Mark Tildesley
8. Wicked: For Good (Universal) — Nathan Crowley
9. A House of Dynamite (Netflix) — Jeremy Hindle
10. Hedda (Amazon/MGM) — Cara Brower
11. Jay Kelly (Netflix) — Mark Tildesley
12. Sentimental Value (Neon) – Jørgen Stangebye Larsen

Possibilities
13. Roofman (Paramount) — Inbal Weinberg
14. Nouvelle Vague (Netflix) — Katia Wyszkop
15. Train Dreams (Netflix) — Fiona Crombie & Alice Felton
16. No Other Choice (Neon) — Ryu Seong-hie
17. The Secret Agent (Neon) — Thales Junqueira
18. The Fantastic Four: First Steps (Disney) — Kasra Farahani
19. Predator: Badlands (20th Century) — Ra Vincent

Long Shots
20. Tron: Ares (Disney) — Darren Gilford
21. Weapons (Warner Bros.) —Thomas Hammock
22. Mickey 17 (Warner Bros.) — Fiona Crombie
23. Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery (Netflix) — Rick Heinrichs
24. Kiss of the Spider Woman (Roadside) – Scott Chambliss
25. Ballad of a Small Player (Netflix) — Jonathan Houlding

FYI Members of the Academy’s sound branch selected a shortlist of 10 films. They are invited to view excerpts of those films on Jan. 10 in the Bay area, London and New York and on Jan. 11 in LA Subsequently, they alone will pick five nominees.

The American Cinematheque’s Tribute to the Crafts’ sound award went to F1. And best sound Critics Choice noms went to F1, Frankenstein, One Battle After Another, Sinners and Sirāt (as well as Warfarewhich was not Oscar-shortlisted).

Frontrunners
1. F1 (Apple/Warner Bros.)
2. Wicked: For Good (Universal)
3. Avatar: Fire and Ash (20th Century)
4. One Battle After Another (Warner Bros.)
5. Sirât (Neon)

Major Threats
6. Frankenstein (Netflix)
7. Sinners (Warner Bros.)
8. Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (20th Century)
9. Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning (Paramount)
10. Superman (Warner Bros.)

FYI For the Oscar shortlist of 10 titles that was determined solely by members of the executive committee of the Academy’s visual effects branch, two studios — which may soon become one — landed multiple titles on the shortlist: Warner Bros. (F1, Sinners and Superman) and Netflix (The Electric State and Frankenstein) … three if you count as one 20th Century (Avatar: Fire and Ash) and Disney (Tron: Ares). Remarkably, Industrial Light & Magic had a hand in all 10 shortlisted films!

Several of the shortlistees received other recognition in recent days. Best visual effects Critics Choice noms went to Avatar: Fire and Ash, F1, Frankenstein and Sinners (as well as Mission: Impossible — The Final Reckoningwhich was not Oscar-shortlisted). And Avatar: Fire and Ash was tapped to receive the visual effects award at the American Cinematheque’s Tribute to the Crafts.

All members of the Academy’s visual effects branch are invited to view excerpts of — and watch interviews with the artists behind — each of the shortlisted films on Jan. 10, 2026. Subsequently, branch members will select five nominees.

Frontrunners
Avatar: Fire and Ash (20th Century)
Wicked: For Good (Universal)
Sinners (Warner Bros.)
Frankenstein (Netflix)
Superman (Warner Bros.)

Major Threats
F1 (Apple/Warner Bros.)
Jurassic World Rebirth (Universal)
The Lost Bus (Apple)
Tron: Ares (Disney)
The Electric State (Netflix)

FYI Members of the Academy’s animation branch solely determined the Oscar shortlist of 15 films — among which are only two American films, Forevergreen and Snow Bear — but members from all branches are invited to participate in the narrowing down of this list to five nominees, provided they view all 15 shortlisted films on the Academy Screening Room, their members-only streaming service.

Shortlisted Titles (alphabetical order)
Autokar
Butterfly
Cardboard
Éiru
Forevergreen
The Girl Who Cried Pearls
Hurikán
I Died in Irpin
The Night Boots
Playing God
The Quinta’s Ghost
Retirement Plan
The Shyness of Trees
Snow Bear
The Three Sisters

FYI From a list of 117 eligible titles, members of the Academy’s documentary branch solely determined the Oscar shortlist of 15 films and will solely determine the list of five nominees. The shortlist covers a lot of heavy subject matter — from the bedrooms of children killed in school shootings (All the Empty Rooms) to the recent LA wildfires (All the Walls Came Down) to an American journalist killed while covering the war in Ukraine (Armed Only with a Camera: The Life and Death of Brent Renaud) — as well as a film that is, at least in part, about filmmaking: We Were the Sceneryabout a couple who fled from the Vietnam War, wound up in the Philippines and then were cast as extras in Apocalypse Now.

Shortlisted Titles (alphabetical order)
All the Empty Rooms
All the Walls Came Down
Armed Only with a Camera: The Life and Death of Brent Renaud
Bad Hostage
Cashing Out
Chasing Time
Children No More: “Were and Are Gone”
Classroom 4
The Devil Is Busy
Heartbeat
Last Days on Lake Trinity
On Healing Land, Birds Perch
Perfectly a Strangeness
Rovina’s Choice
We Were the Scenery

FYI Academy members from all branches were invited to help winnow down a field of 207 eligible titles to a shortlist of 15 (provided they met a minimum viewing requirement), and are now invited to select from that group five nominees (provided they can prove that they have seen all 15 shortlisted titles).

Shortlisted Titles (alphabetical order)
Ado
Amarela
Beyond Silence
The Boy with White Skin
Butcher’s Stain
Butterfly on a Wheel
Dad’s Not Home
Extremist
A Friend of Dorothy
Jane Austen’s Period Drama
Pantyhose
The Pearl Comb
Rock, Paper, Scissors
The Singers
Two People Exchanging Saliva