“Awards voters can choose a top winner for many reasons beyond the work itself — social justice (Moonlight), religious mea culpa (Spotlight), military guilt (The Hurt Locker), feeling bad for Ben Affleck (Argo). But what has taken shape in the past two weeks, as Netflix and Paramount fight to take control of Warner Bros, could”, — write: www.hollywoodreporter.com
But what has taken shape in the past two weeks, as Netflix and Paramount fight to take control of Warner Bros, could check a much rarer box on the list: rewarding the company about to get devoured.
On Wednesday the latest round in that bout unfolded, as Warner Bros. Discovery formally rejected the Paramount offer of $30 a share, likely leading to the David Ellison company unleashing another, higher-priced haymaker north of that $108 billion figure as he tries to pry it from Netflix. But all of that drama just benefits the contenders who have movies at WB.
One Battle after Another was a pretty prohibitive frontrunner even before this sale was announced, topping most Oscar prognosticator lists thanks to Paul Thomas Anderson’s wry story of a revolutionary past his prime (and nabbing every conceivable nomination at the Golden Globes including picture, director, screenplay and five acting noms). Ryan Coogler’s Sinners hasn’t been far behind with pundits (or with Globes, with picture, director, screenplay and an acting nomination for Michael B. Jordan) as industry people are very drawn to the metaphorized vampire story in the Jim Crow South.
Now those two choices become even greater heavyweights.
Given the vibe around town, which runs roughly along the lines of, “Can you believe what Netflix could do to the house that Harry, Albert, Sam and Jack built?” a lot of voters are now looking at those pieces through new eyes. More than just powerful works of cinema, the movies are avatars for everything good and right about to go away. What card-carrying Hollywood pro can resist that argument? Warners isn’t just getting gobbled up by any larger company — it’s being consumed by a company that to date hasn’t believed in theatrical releases.
Even if the company went to Paramount, the feeling among many voters goes, the studio is still the victim of a tech-minded consolidation, given the source of Ellison’s family money. And with the Academy Awards now going full streaming thanks to its YouTube deal, Silicon Valley ambivalence is running high in Hollywood.
Historically, few studios in the modern era have had better years than Warners itself back at the 2004 Oscars ceremony, when it notched 13 wins thanks mostly to Lord of the Rings: Return of the King and slightly to Mystic River. This year the Sinners-Battle dynamic duo could approach that number.
It’s a strange idea, casting a vote based on a corporate narrative. But welcome to the Oscars in the M&A age: alongside great craftsmanship and stellar storytelling sits the virtue of being targeted by a tech giant. Casts can get punished because of a miscreant director; talented people get shunned because an executive eschewed theaters. This is a reverse case: love by association.
The 2026 Oscars would not be the first instance of sales-target sympathy. Eight years ago a similar Big Bad Wolf merger narrative unfolded in Hollywood in the thick of award season when Disney announced it was buying Fox. That year Guillermo del Toro’s The Shape of Water, from then-Fox Searchlight, took home the top prizes of best picture and best director, in what many critics call one of the weaker winners in modern memory. But the sizable number of voters who felt Searchlight would get scuttled by Disney overlooked its flaws and marked the selection of the studio about to be gobbled up.
This year del Toro is on the other side of the stick, and his Frankensteinwhich has been garnering some momentum, may have just been slowed in its tracks. If Netflix couldn’t win best picture before all this, it’s hard to see how snapping up a Hollywood icon will reverse the trend. (Also tough news for Train Dreams, A House of Dynamite, Jay Kelly and Nouvelle Vague.)
By the way, if anyone thought Shape of Water groundswell eight years ago was sticking it to Disney, they might want to think again; Bob Iger sat behind the Searchlight team during the entire Oscar ceremony and gave them the thumbs up with every award. I’m not sure David Ellison or Ted Sarandos would be doing the same behind Michael de Luca and Pamela Abdy, but they might be quietly cheering just the same.
If the WB sympathy-vote does come into play, it could help hand Oscars to some very overdue people. Coogler doesn’t have a statuette on his mantel despite his unbroken streak of critical and crowd favorites in Fruitvale Station, Creed and the Black Panther movies. And Paul Thomas Anderson, while being nominated for eleven Oscars across six films, has somehow never won one either.
Ironically, the Oscar love for Warners might make Netflix think twice about any quiet plans to go streaming-first (a plan execs continue to say they will not follow). At the very least you could imagine the winners taking advantage of the moment, a Coogler or PTA acceptance address imploring Sarandos to keep it theatrical or Ellison to put away the layoff scalpel. Sometimes when you fear your studio is about to get trainrolled, all you can do is close your eyes, brace for the worst and give a damn good Oscar speech.