US trade war: experts explained the consequences for Ukraine and America itself

The introduction of a 10% duty for Ukraine by the US is not of particular importance. The introduced duties will hit the American economy very hard. Donald Trump can also really provoke a global crisis through his economic policy. This was stated to a journalist of UNN by economic experts Oleksandr Okhrimenko and Oleh Pendzyn.

Duties for Ukraine at 10%Economist Oleksandr Okhrimenko, commenting to UNN on Trump’s introduction of duties for Ukraine at the level of 10%, stated that they are of no importance to us. 

This has absolutely no effect. We hardly trade with the US. The only thing we supplied to the US before the war was pig iron. Now we supply it a little, very little. Therefore, these duties are of no importance to us a priori

He added that American goods may indeed become more expensive, but not only American goods are sold in Ukraine, there is always an alternative.

Executive Director of the Ukrainian Discussion Club Oleh Pendzyn also noted to UNN that a much bigger problem for Ukraine now is the security consequences.

There is already a 25% (duty – ed.) on Ukrainian metal. What we trade with the US today is less than what Russia trades with the US. When we talk about the consequences for Ukraine, the security consequences are a much bigger problem in this situation. Because the total volume of what Ukraine trades with the US is small – $2.2-2.5 billion

Absence of duties against the Russian FederationThe new duties from the US do not apply, in particular, to Belarus and Russia.

US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, commenting on why Washington did not impose duties on imports of goods from Russia and Belarus, said that America does not trade with these countries because they are under sanctions.

However, as Axios writes, the US still trades with Russia more than with countries such as Mauritius or Brunei, which were included in Trump’s duty list.

Axios notes that the value of trade between the US and Russia has fallen sharply from about $35 billion in 2021 to $3.5 billion last year due to sanctions imposed in connection with Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Russia has asked Trump to lift some of these sanctions as part of US-brokered ceasefire talks, which the publication notes have “largely stalled.”

Expert Pendzyn also stressed that the US statement that they do not trade with the Russian Federation is false.

“The statement that they do not trade with Russia is a lie, they trade for $3 billion. They trade in ammonia fertilizers, uranium compounds,” Pendzyn told a journalist of UNN.

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Consequences for AmericaThe day of the introduction of new large-scale trade duties in the White House administration was proclaimed “America’s Liberation Day”.

However, Trump’s economic policy raises many questions. The president himself stated that the US economy is facing a “transition period”, deflecting concerns about the risks of its slowdown, writes Bloomberg, noting that his focus on tariffs and federal job cuts is causing market turmoil.

Economist Oleksandr Okhrimenko noted that Trump’s problem is that he wants to bring America back to the 50s and 60s.

Indeed, in the 50s and 60s, America was a world exporter, but the reason was that World War II ended, Europe was destroyed, and the Soviet Union was closed. These times are long gone and his thoughts that something can be done in this way are absurd. He really lives in the past. Trump’s entourage is afraid to “bark”. He gathered around him only those who praise him. He is a narcissist and loves to be praised

Okhrimenko stressed that Trump can really provoke a global crisis through his economic policy.

Oleh Pendzyn also stressed that the introduced duties will hit the American economy very hard.

It should be noted that new duties have been introduced, in particular for China – 34%, the EU – 20%, and Great Britain – 20%. 

“The American economy may not live to see the “greatness” (which Trump declares – ed.) with such problems, because the introduced duties will hit the American economy very hard. When we talk about the relations between Americans and Chinese, or America and Europe, where trade turnover is tens, hundreds of billions of dollars, then the duties will sharply increase the price of goods in the US. A trade war will not give anyone anything positive. The losses will be primarily for America,” Pendzyn explained.

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Ukraine’s reaction to the new duties

First Deputy Prime Minister – Minister of Economy Yulia Svyrydenko stated that the introduction by the US of duties for Ukraine in the amount of 10% is not critical, and Kyiv is already working to ensure that the conditions are better.

Svyrydenko said that Ukraine exported $874 million to the US in 2024, of which $363 million was pig iron and another $112 million was pipes. According to her, Ukraine exports more than 600 different categories of goods to the US (very different – even wrenches), of which 65 types of products – worth more than $1 million.

Reaction of partners to Trump’s dutiesNew import duties announced by US President Donald Trump on Wednesday have sparked a wave of criticism from America’s trading partners.

Leaders of a number of countries and business representatives have stated the negative consequences of this step for the global economy.

Seoul is preparing for tough economic challenges following the United States’ announcement of new tariffs on imports.

China has vowed to retaliate after US President Donald Trump announced major new tariffs on its exports to the United States as part of his radical overhaul of a century-old US policy of global trade.

President of the European Commission Ursula von der Leyen said that Europe is ready to defend its interests in response to the new US tariffs, while remaining open to negotiations.

Meanwhile, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has called on the United States’ trading partners not to retaliate against President Donald Trump’s new set of “reciprocal” duties.

The White House said on April 3 that Trump is declaring a state of emergency to strengthen the US national economy and competitiveness.

Bloomberg warned before the introduction of the new duties that it could instantly overturn the global trading system established after World War II and create difficult-to-predict economic risks.